Polyester And Terminal Textiles Are Pulling &Nbsp; PTA Will Continue To Be Strong.

In the early September, the macroeconomic data were released. In August, CPI rose by 3.5% compared with the same period last year. The real estate market price rose in the same month, and the industrial output value rebounded year after year.

Given that the most fundamental driving force for the rise in macroeconomic data is the loose monetary structure, investors have to worry about the measures adopted by the central bank to recycle liquidity.

Rumors of a time of rampant, from the SFC to investigate the operation of Futures Company to control the price of gum, began again, the Chinese government will start a new round of real estate policy strike, a thorough investigation of illegal funds, the central bank to increase interest rates to tighten liquidity, mysterious capital entering the market, the State Council leaders to attack the price of commodities, and so on, rumors and speculation to promote a sharp return of the financial market.

On the 17 day, the central bank issued a report saying that we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.

On Monday, there was a sharp rise in the commodity market. Individual varieties were hit to the trading limit. PTA broke through the resistance point of 8000 and entered the upward trend.

From the perspective of supply and demand of PTA, upstream raw materials are slowing down and gradually stabilized. Downstream polyester production and marketing are very good and prices are high.

Among them, the textile and clothing peak season is growing rapidly, will be in the macro favorable situation, for PTA uplink add momentum.

1. Abundant liquidity, weak supply and demand of VS, wide oscillation of crude oil

The trend of macroeconomy and the easing of capital decide whether the price is strong or not. The fundamentals of crude oil determine the upward and downward trend.

The supply and demand side of crude oil is still bad.

Data released by the US energy information administration showed that the stock of crude oil and gasoline and distillate oil in the United States decreased significantly in the week ending September 10th, resulting in a total decline in oil inventories from the highest level recorded in history.

US crude oil inventories dropped 2 million 490 thousand barrels, gasoline inventories dropped 694 thousand barrels, distillate stocks dropped 340 thousand barrels, and oil inventories dropped by 2 million 920 thousand barrels.

The decline in inventories was due to a decline in imports. A week in Canada, a pipeline of 670 thousand barrels per day was briefly cut off.

Land stocks are high and offshore floating stocks are also increasing slightly.

Shipping agency ICAP Shipping statistics show that in the week ending September 10th, the storage capacity of super giant tankers, including Iran, was 36 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels over the previous week.

The International Energy Agency estimates that at the end of August, 35 million barrels of refined oil were stored in offshore floating warehouses, an increase of 1 million barrels over the end of July.

From the demand side, the US Energy Information Department statistics show that around September 10th, the total oil demand in the United States averaged 19 million 584 thousand barrels per day.

At the end of the peak season of consumption, the total demand for oil has not yet reached the lower limit of 20 million barrels per day.

The US Master Card Inc calculated gasoline for petrol stations by the week. In the week ending September 10th, gasoline demand in the United States was 8 million 837 thousand barrels a day, the lowest level since October 10, 2008, a decrease of 289 thousand barrels from the previous week, a decrease of 3.2%, and the lowest level since 2005.

As a more direct evidence of declining demand, OPEC's crude shipping exports continued to decline.

According to data released by the consultancy Oil Movements, OPEC's 10 member countries, excluding Angola and Ecuador, had a daily average of 23 million 200 thousand barrels per day, which was 2 million 730 thousand barrels less than 4 weeks before the end of October 2nd.

OPEC shipments reached a high level of 23 million 780 thousand barrels per day in July 17th, and then returned to the downstream, far from the previous average limit of 24 million barrels, which was near 25 million 500 thousand barrels in the past 6 years.

With the success of the eurozone sovereign bond issuance, the European debt crisis eased, and the recent new Basel agreement passed quickly and unexpectedly relaxed, making the market's worries about euro zone banking plummeted.

The US dollar rebounded since the end of June, and even after the Bank of Japan intervened again for 6 years, the dollar declined.

The weakness of the US dollar and the easing of market funds will bring support to commodities.

The total stock of oil is still at a high level throughout the years; the total demand for oil is oscillating near 19 million 500 thousand barrels / day, and the fundamentals of the crude oil are weak.

Under the combined effect of weakness in the US dollar and weak supply and demand, the oil market will still oscillate near $75, which is hard to catch up with the trend.

Two. Polyester stocks are low.

9, October is the peak season for the production and marketing of domestic industrial products. The industry is known as "golden nine silver ten". PTA's downstream polyester and textile production and sales in September are very good.

As a raw material of polyester, the fall in the price of PTA often leads to the downturn of polyester production and marketing. In the early September, the weak callback of PTA did not affect the production and sale of polyester in the slightest.

This is because, whether it is polyester chips, bottle flakes, staple fiber or polyester fiber, the recovery of demand, reasonable or even low inventory and good profit situation have prompted the current.

The thriving situation of polyester production and marketing is due to the growth of demand for terminal textile and clothing.

In the first half of 2010, the export volume of textile and garment industry exceeded expected growth, reaching 22.06% year-on-year.

The growth rate declined slightly in 7 and August, but still 26.99% and 28.32%.

At the same time, domestic sales of textiles and clothing have maintained a relatively good growth rate of over 20%. From 1 to August, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles amounted to 354 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7% over the same period last year.

Since September, downstream textile enterprises have entered the traditional "golden nine silver ten" peak season.

The current situation of PTA is that the petrochemical products including PX have been substantially increased in recent years, especially in the high inventory products such as naphtha and MEG.

Polyester manufacturers generally have low inventories, and polyester manufacturers are short of stocks for one to two weeks due to shortage.

Terminal textile exports continued to grow, and domestic sales also maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 20%.

Late downstream polyester and terminal textile pulling will continue to support PTA's strength.