High Cotton Prices &Nbsp; Low Inventory &Nbsp; Brutal Competition.

Recently, cotton futures contract broke through 20 thousand yuan / ton mark in October, the highest level in 15 years. Under the action of price spanmission, cotton spot prices also began to go wild.

Analysts told the daily economic news reporter that marketing hype It is one of the factors to boost cotton prices, and high cotton prices will lead to another round of brutal competition in textile enterprises.

High cotton prices are too low inventory.

The sharp rise has become the main keynote of cotton prices at home and abroad in 2010.

"Cotton prices have been rising this year, but the growth rate has intensified in September." First textile network editor in chief Wang Cheng Qian told the daily economic news reporter.

The general manager of Xi Textile Industry Department of Shanghai textile group told reporters that cotton prices broke through the 20 thousand yuan mark since September, setting a new high in 15 years.

The first textile network has just compiled a set of data: as at September 17th, Zheng cotton The recent contract price rose from 13280 yuan / ton in the early year to 20035 yuan / ton, rising 6755 yuan / ton, or 50.87%. Over the same period, spot three grade cotton prices also rose from 12977 yuan / ton in September 1st last year to 19000 yuan / ton, rising 6023 yuan / ton, or 46.41%.

As for the reasons for soaring cotton prices, Wang pointed out that "global cotton production has continued to decline, and consumer demand has recovered more than expected; and the" bright Yang "market, which is difficult to see in downstream cotton mills, has also contributed to the rise in cotton prices. He said that the resumption of growth in China's textile industry has also brought solid support to the cotton market. "Besides, low inventory is also the trigger for cotton price rise. Under such circumstances, the external cotton and the national cotton form a mutual promotion pattern.

Shortage of stocks is likely to push enterprises into the rush to buy cotton. Wang Qianjin said that as of the end of 8 this year, enterprises accounted for less than 200 tons of enterprises accounted for 58%, 200 tons of ~1000 tons accounted for 22%, 1000 tons of ~2000 tons of enterprises accounted for 10%, 2000 tons of ~3000 tons of enterprises accounted for 6%, and 4% of the enterprise's stock was 3000 tons. The total stock of cotton is large, but the actual inventory of each manufacturer is not optimistic. Most of the enterprises below 200 tons occupy 80% of the stocks below 1000 tons, which is also an important reason for cotton spinning enterprises to rush to buy Cotton in the market.

Speculation and speculation boosted cotton prices

Li Xuerong, a senior researcher at CIC, said that market speculation is one of the factors that boosted cotton prices.

"In the short supply of cotton, some cotton merchants with strong financial strength and experience began to hoard cotton, cotton and cotton. Affected by this, a few large cotton textile enterprises have begun to hoard cotton. " Li Xuerong pointed out that the current situation of textile industry is many manufacturers, most of which are small in scale and weak in strength. "When resources are concentrated in the hands of a small number of people, many large textile enterprises can not compete against such cotton middleman and hype hoarding enterprises, let alone SMEs."

As for whether the new cotton listing can stabilize cotton prices, Xi manager said it was not optimistic. "The new cotton has not been collected yet, and the cotton in Xinjiang will not be collected until the end of September. But Xinjiang is also developing cotton textile industry. It has more uses and can offer less. " He pointed out that once the problem of spanportation is included, the amount of cotton that downstream enterprises will get will be "very intense".

"There is also the problem of domestic cotton quality. domestic Textile enterprises More foreign trade exports, foreign businessmen pointed to the use of American cotton. In this way, domestic cotton imports are increasing year by year, and domestic cotton production enthusiasm has begun to decline. Li Xuerong said that under such circumstances, cotton prices are easy to be hyped by foreign cotton traders.

Businesses are "hurt" and the industry will be restructured.

"Cotton prices have risen by 20% in 4 days, and this price change will soon be spanmitted to the lower reaches, and the pressure of textile enterprises will be great." Wang Wei, deputy director of the Ministry of industry and information technology, consumer goods industry, recently expressed to the outside world.

"We have substantially reduced cotton orders since May of this year." "The cotton price fluctuates too much, resulting in our profits being very thin. Once the problems arise in the production sectors, the losses will be very severe," said Yu Ya, the head of a textile enterprise in Keqiao.

"Gross profit margin was 10%~12% before, now only 7%~8%."

Li Xuerong pointed out that the most serious impact on cotton prices is foreign trade enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises.

"Business is hard now." The cotton business, which is currently operating at the company's company, accounts for only 30% of the total business. It began to feel the pressure of the increase in cotton prices from the beginning of this year, and they were gradually turning to other areas.

Yu Ya told reporters that many small and medium-sized enterprises were in the same situation as they were. Most of them avoided the pressure of rising cotton prices by reducing cotton orders and expanding trade channels from other aspects. {page_break}

"Foreign trade customers will not control how much your costs rise. Foreign markets are only concerned about terminal prices. Once prices rise, our products will basically lose competitiveness." You ya said.

Domestic and foreign textile enterprises are facing more than competition from domestic counterparts. "Once domestic prices rise, orders may flow to India, Pakistan and Vietnam." Insiders told reporters.

According to the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on the national list of key export commodities, the cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2010 1~7 exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 109 billion 670 million US dollars, an increase of 22.94% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.84 percentage points compared with the 22.1% growth rate in the first half. Among them, the total exports of textiles amounted to 42 billion 840 million US dollars, and clothing exports totaled 66 billion 830 million US dollars, with a growth rate of 32.8% and 17.4% respectively.

Wang pointed out that the current market is mainly worried about the spanmission of industrial chain costs. "The cotton price goes further to the end consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles, and the domestic market can be completely or partly digested. But export market competition is fierce, and it is difficult to digest. Those exporters with relatively poor competitiveness may face survival problems. "

Xi manager told reporters that downstream is the biggest impact on printing and dyeing enterprises, and then pass on, clothing enterprises pressure.

Insiders said that the acceleration of cotton prices will accelerate the restructuring and integration of the industry. The concentration of the industry will rise, and a number of small businesses will be eliminated.

"Such a price increase will lead to polarization of textile enterprises. This will be a long-term trend and a major trend of industrial readjustment. " Wang Qianjin said.