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Ma Guangyuan: Cotton Prices Are Up &Nbsp; &Nbsp; The Textile Industry Is Grim.

2010/9/27 22:46:00 44

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"Cotton prices rose by 20% in 4 days, and this price pmission will soon be pmitted to the lower reaches. Textile enterprises are under great pressure." this is the concern expressed by Wang Wei, deputy director of the consumer goods industry department of the Ministry of industry and information technology.

Misfortunes never come alone.

In the reality of high raw materials, many local governments started large-scale sluice and power rationing in order to complete the "energy saving and emission reduction targets" in 11th Five-Year.

Industry experts believe that textile enterprises will fall into a large area of production or stop production, and even the title of the media is named: China's textile industry is hovering on the frontline of life and death.

Is the textile industry really at risk? Let's connect with economic observer Ma Guangyuan immediately.

Output has declined, the US dollar has gone down, and cotton prices have not reached their peak.

Moderator: Mr. Ma,

Cotton price

What's the reason for the 20% rise in 4 days?

Ma Guangyuan: cotton prices have been rising from last year to now. From the point of view of the reasons, it should be said that a result of multiple factors superposition.

From the domestic point of view, cotton prices were very low in 2008, leading to a major setback in cotton farmers' confidence, resulting in reduced planting area.

The planting area in 2009 is 14 million mu less than that in 2007. From the material point of view, from the normal 7 million 500 thousand to 6 million 400 thousand, the reduction is relatively large.

Second, we know that because of the weather last year, the output of the whole cotton main production area is relatively low, so the whole supply and demand situation in the whole country has been unbalanced. From the international point of view, in fact, the international supply and demand balance of cotton has not kept up for 15 consecutive years, that is to say, the demand has been far greater than the output, resulting in the whole international market.

cotton

The supply and demand market has been unbalanced for 15 consecutive years, and last year, the whole cotton producing area in the world was affected by disaster factors, resulting in a decline in output. For example, India, now banning cotton exports, coupled with the low US dollar and so on, has led to a high price of cotton futures. Under the influence of this superposition factor, China's cotton prices have risen. We see basically a trend of continuous trading. From the trend itself, if the global money supply continues to continue, the cotton prices will continue to rise, and the price of cotton is still not at its peak.

Short term response to difficult industrial structure must be changed

Moderator: in the first half of the year, we also saw that the profit of the textile industry increased by 61% over the same period last year. Is the environment really so bad?

Ma Guangyuan: it should be said.

Textile industry

The current situation should be very serious. We say that the whole profit growth last year is due to a relatively low base. In the financial crisis, such a factor will lead to the whole profit growth itself should not be much comparable.

This year is a sharp rise in cotton prices. From September to September this year, the price jumped by more than 40%. For the textile industry, the cost of this raw material has skyrocketed to make it more difficult to react from the price, plus our export tax rebates, together with the energy saving emission reduction mentioned before, leading to the textile industry now facing such a situation, it may be more difficult to deal with it in the short term.

But I think it may be a bit exaggerated to say that facing the front line of life and death, after all, many industries are facing such a situation, so I think that for the textile industry, it may be further cut down or stop production.

Coupled with the recent pressure from the United States on RMB appreciation, the whole situation is grim, but it has not yet reached the frontline of life and death. After all, we know that its profits last year and this year are still around 10%. There is still some room for adjustment. Therefore, we should make some adjustments in terms of product structure and other aspects, and we should change the whole industry and production capacity, but the situation is still grim.