Cotton Textile Industry Chain Is Full Of Differences And Needs To Adapt To Industrial Adjustment.

The price of all kinds of yarns has been greatly increased, and the combing C32S has broken through the 30000 mark.

Behind this bustle, in fact, the cotton textile industry chain is full of differences.

The acquisition of the market is dominated by small cotton merchants. Most of the 400 cotton traders are on the sidelines. Even if some of the listed companies strictly control the total daily purchases, some cotton merchants will directly pfer the acquisition to the futures market.

Textile enterprises are indeed buying because of actual shortages, and they also have to adjust their structure to make use of polyester raw materials.

In September 27th, the NDRC held a television working conference, adding 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves.

There was a big dive on the day of the cotton futures market, which was matched by the monthly limit.

And whether there will be more regulatory measures behind the reserve increase, and the market will be temporarily confused.

In this regard, we believe that adapting to industrial adjustment should be a safer investment strategy at present.

The difference between cotton and polyester has been increasing in the past two years. Whether or not it has hedging opportunities has always been controversial. The author began to pay attention to this point in February this year. The substitution is definitely there. The adjustment of the textile product with increasing polyester ratio in recent years is a fact. No matter it is the proportion of large cotton and polyester blended or the production of pure polyester yarn directly after adjusting the equipment, it can regulate the consumption ratio of cotton and polyester to a certain extent.

But the correlation between prices seems not high.

In retrospect, 09 years ago, cotton and polyester price difference was below 4000 yuan, finishing around 2000 yuan axis, and 09 years later, cotton polyester price difference continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 9054 yuan, far from the original constant relationship.

Take 26 days as an example, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and China cotton price index is as high as 8544 yuan. According to the spot market quotation, the price difference has exceeded 10000 yuan.

The author thinks that the widening of the price difference is mainly due to the reverse change of supply and demand.

In the 09 year, the deterioration of the cotton production situation pushed up prices and continued to rise; while polyester faced the direct pressure of expansion of production capacity, prices always kept near the cost, resulting in the widening of the spreads between them. The polyester staple was polymerized by PTA and MEG, and the cost of production was closely related to chemical products.

The processing of ton polyester staple requires 0.865 tons of PTA and 0.34 tons of MEG.

Comparing the price trend of polyester and its raw materials, the correlation is very high. It also reflects the low profit pattern of polyester market.

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According to the market quotations, normally the disc profit of polyester staple fiber is maintained at around 500 yuan, and since September this year, disk profit has risen rapidly to around 2000 yuan.

The reason is that in addition to the limited production of energy saving and emission reduction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in the main polyester producing areas, the essential pulling of demand side is the fundamental reason for the arrival of the traditional peak season of consumption.

According to the author's investigation of some large and medium-sized textile enterprises in Hubei, since February, excluding the normal order production, the textile enterprises with more than 100 thousand spindles have actively adjusted the ratio of yarn to cotton production, and the estimated adjustment range is 20%, while the proportion of 50 thousand small plants is higher and the highest proportion of adjustment is 40%, which has increased the market's additional demand for the polyester market.

Judging from the production profit of the yarn market, the profit of polyester T32S is as high as 3000 yuan / ton, while the profit of pure cotton C32S is 2500 yuan, the first time it is higher than pure cotton yarn production.

Judging from the two production lines, the cotton yarn industry chain is mainly driven by cost increase, and the price is pmitted from top to bottom.

The polyester industry is mainly driven by demand, and the price is pmitted from top to bottom.

In comparison, the rise in polyester prices is more secure.

As a result, the textile industry actively participates in cotton blending ratio adjustment.

The author believes that the current role of textile links will gradually reflect the role of continuous speculation in the suppression of high cotton prices in the late stage, and the price difference between cotton and polyester will gradually return, which will become a better way to hedge the risk of high cotton prices.

Cotton basic analysis:

Affected by adverse weather, the cotton production situation in the new year is still not optimistic.

In the early stage of planting, the accumulated temperature in the whole country was relatively low. In mid July, the Yangtze River Basin experienced a continuous rainstorm. The output estimate of Hubei province dropped by 10%. At the end of August, Shandong and other places continued to rain for nearly a month, and estimated that the reduction of production reached 20%, and the premature cooling in mid September caused the whole cotton production to face the danger of the decline in yield per unit area.

Combined with the prediction of the growth of the previous area, the author estimates that the cotton output this year will be flat or slightly lower than last year.

Cotton prices continued to rise for two consecutive years as the output was below average. As last year, the purchase price continued to guide the market.

As of 26 days, the purchase price of grade four cotton in Hubei province exceeded 5.1 yuan / Jin, according to 1.5 yuan of cotton seed, the cost of three flower was 23000 yuan, matching 23000 yuan, futures 22400 yuan, and the whole market formed similar to 09 years.

However, from the perspective of the downstream industry chain, grey fabric has shown great resistance although it is following up the price increase, and the inventory of individual printing and dyeing plants has been overloaded in March.

At the same time, downstream exports, the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi will have an impact on the export orders in the latter stage.

From the upstream point of view, in order to regulate the shortage of the current spot market, the state has again issued 400 thousand tons of cotton reserve plan. At the same time, the market rumors say that the state will adjust the market supply and demand through the combined measures such as early issuance, issuance of quotas and postpones. Once formed, it will show that the supply of cotton will be very abundant next year, and the purchasing power of textile enterprises will increase greatly. With the gradual emergence of new flowers, the short term shortage of cotton will gradually disappear. Meanwhile, the substitution effect at the middle reaches will reduce the consumption demand of cotton, so the necessity of holding high value will gradually be reflected.

Polyester and PTA fundamentals analysis:

Although domestic polyester production capacity continues to expand, the average load of enterprises in the first half of the year is still 80%, and polyester products still maintain a good production and marketing situation.

In the three quarter, due to the impact of summer power restriction and energy saving and emission reduction, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were limited by low profit margins and low inventories.

However, the price of raw materials PTA is suppressed because of limited demand, and the price of PTA stocks will gradually rebound with the gradual release of polyester production capacity after the festival.

Comparing the price dispersion diagram of polyester and PTA in the spot market over the past 05 years, the relative price of the spot and the spot prices has reached 0.82.

Therefore, the author thinks that the operation of polyester can be realized by raw material PTA.

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Therefore, the author thinks that for the cotton merchants' selling hedge strategy, we can take the hedging sheet with PTA increase to protect the disk.

1, on the choice of contracts, combined with the characteristics of strong and weak market, it is suggested to choose CF1105 and TA1101.

2, for comparison of the gap between the funds and the fluctuation, the proposed ratio is 2:5.

3, according to the wave theory, the author believes that at present, Zheng cotton is in the 3 wave of 3 wave 5, combined with the Gann Jiao and Fibonacci series, we believe that the time of selling and keeping value is better near the end of October or 25000.