The Stock Market's Polar Market &Nbsp; Investors Are Unhappy.

The heat suddenly ended and the North felt cold. At the turn of the season, the market is also beginning to talk about the change of the coming season, but it is like forecasting weather difficulties, and even more difficult. After all, there are still satellites hanging on the weather station, but investors often do not have a compass.

　　 Ban shares It is not enough to extinguish the flames of small stocks.

At present, Polar Market Still very typical, similar to the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, it was also large cap stocks. Small-cap Two days, the composite index was sideways and investors were unhappy. This represents a new and old theme exchange during the transition period. Until now, it is still a feature like this. Despite the twists and turns, the small and medium-sized stock index has continuously hit a new high. This new and old transformation takes place faster and faster in the capital market, while in the real economy, more time is needed to achieve it. I believe this change is lasting. That is to say, the emerging growth force represented by small cap stocks is far from over. Only after running too fast, it will also need to stop waiting for the economy.

The immediate threat is the lifting of the ban shares. For industrial capital, or for PE investors, even for entrepreneurs themselves, the current valuation of small cap stocks has reached the point where people can not feel relieved to invest and do business again. No wonder a large number of executives prefer to resign and sell stocks. This actually reflects the fragmentary nature of China's investment market, but we expect that the lifting of the ban shares will bring some cold water to the market, but this is not enough to extinguish the flame, because it represents the new economic power, and the depressed prices will only attract new investors to enter. The risk of small cap stocks, at least for the next six months, comes from natural ups and down after continuous rise. In essence, they do not have a sustained downward trend in fundamental directions. On the contrary, more profits from policy will emerge from time to time, giving more emphasis to emerging industries.

Therefore, a wise investor will pretend to be afraid of the cold price at the height, and then quietly buy it when others really think that the small cap bubble will burst completely, and this time will happen in the next quarter. Although the price earnings ratio does not seem attractive enough in the short term even if the small cap stocks are adjusted to the whole 20%~30%, what you need to remember is that the price earnings ratio is never a good indicator or even a misleading indicator when making investment decisions for several months.

Big cap stocks still have little to do.

Under the short-term pressure of small cap stocks, I am not too sure that big cap stocks can make a difference. Consistent with the logic above, the downturn of large cap stocks is a reflection of the self adjustment process of traditional economic volume under the background of economic restructuring. That is to say, many industries need to adjust the total amount to adapt to the new economic structure. This is far from a day's work. Many of the policies and measures we have seen to promote mergers and integration are only one aspect of this process. Correspondingly, large cap stocks also need time to find their new position in the capital market, or to wait for the completion of the transformation of the real economic structure, and then find their relatively stable pricing. In particular, in recent months, the appreciation of RMB has accelerated, and the international political pressure of exchange rate has increased. These are some repertoire in the process of traditional economic restructuring. I think these will be good things to promote economic restructuring and big market share relocation, but at the beginning there will be some labor pains.

Key points of operation in the fourth quarter

From the above two judgments, the trend of the fourth quarter of the future should generally be the structure of the bottom up recovery, and the early risk is too large, and the mid term has better timing. Therefore, the overall response is early, especially in October, mainly to control risks and keep a low level in the positions. I think that the industries with the most defensive characteristics represented by medicine can occupy a larger proportion. At the same time, the inflation oriented investment represented by agricultural products should also be maintained. However, I am not optimistic about the subsequent sustainability of the recent nonferrous metal market driven by the depreciation of the dollar, because the market has recently turned a blind eye to the decline in related demand caused by possible economic contraction, and is keen to hype the so-called financial attributes, which is brewing risks. In the middle of the next season, I think it is an important purchase point in the next two years, because we are getting closer and closer to the end of the first wave of economic recession after the crisis. From a natural economic point of view or from a policy stability perspective, it implies an important investment point.

I predict that the domestic policy will usher in an obvious turning point at the beginning of next year. The background of this transition will be a compromise between the management sector and the current social stability after the economic downturn. That is to say, some policies that may be inconsistent with the long-term goals but conducive to maintaining the economic speed may be adopted, such as re expanding investment. For the capital market, such a compromise will mean a common honeymoon in the traditional and emerging industries. As an early reflection, I think it will be evident in the fourth quarter of this year. So after this round of adjustment, we must resolutely increase investment in emerging industries and maintain high positions until next spring, I think there will be great gains.