Europe And The United States Continue To Upgrade The RMB &Nbsp; The Global Exchange Rate War Is Rising.

In recent weeks,

On the 9 annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank annual meeting, the debate on whether or not the RMB undervaluation and the currency war have come to an end.

On the 15 th of this month, the United States will issue a report on the exchange rate assessment of major trading partners. At the end of the month, a meeting of the finance ministers and central bank governors of the group of twenty will be held in South Korea, and a G20 summit will be held in November. Many experts interviewed by the economic reference daily believe that the RMB exchange rate issue will become the focus again at this time.

They suggested that I should resist external pressure and continue to push forward the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism.

In fact, not only RMB, but also many non US currencies have been under a great pressure of appreciation recently.

Despite the two pronged efforts of the BoJ to push loose policy after intervening in the foreign exchange market directly, the yen is hard to block.

The Australian dollar traded at a new rate of floating exchange rate against the US dollar in the past 27 years. The Thai baht has hit a new high in the past 13 years against the US dollar. Singapore dollar has been hitting the high level since the reform of the exchange rate, and the exchange rate of Brazil's real has also risen continuously.

Therefore, after the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market, many export oriented countries and emerging market countries also moved.

The senior government of Thailand said that it would pay close attention to the reasons for the appreciation of the exchange rate and the corresponding management measures. The Central Bank of Columbia recently announced that it would start buying at least 20 million dollars a day to prevent the rise of the peso. South Korea also bought dollars to prevent the Korean won from rising too fast; Vietnam had repeatedly devalued its currency to stimulate exports.

Analysts point out that the argument of RMB undervaluation is now in dispute.

Kahn, President of the International Monetary Fund, said recently that there are signs that some countries are trying to use their currencies as weapons, and that the strong cooperation desire of countries at the time of the most serious crisis has weakened.

In an interview with the economic reference daily, Zhao Qingming, senior research fellow of the Construction Bank, said that the possibility of a full-scale currency war due to intervention by various countries is very small.

But he also pointed out that from a historical perspective, the United States is the largest currency manipulator in the world.

Now the domestic economic recovery in the United States is no increase in the recovery of employment. The US government is under pressure from the public and so on.

Technically, the dollar has fallen considerably.

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Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, warned that the pressure of RMB appreciation is not only from European and American countries, but also from all countries with trade deficit with China, and China will face stronger pressure on RMB appreciation in bilateral and multilateral two aspects.

"All countries are keeping up with the US dollar exchange rate, and they will place their hopes on the appreciation of the renminbi. Japan, Korea and Brazil all hope that the appreciation of the renminbi will enhance the competitiveness of their export products."

In addition, in multilateral channels, China will also face several rounds of pressure from the International Monetary Fund, the WTO and the group of twenty summit in Seoul.

"The United States that originally supported IMF share reform suddenly put forward that it is unreasonable to link the share adjustment with the exchange rate reform. The IMF share reform has been put forward 3 years ago. G20 leaders promised to pfer 5% of the share to the BRICs in January 2011 last year, and the United States is not convincing to push the appreciation of the currency," said IMF.

Zhang Zhixiang, an international affairs consultant at Renmin University of China School of Finance and finance, and former executive director of IMF in China.

Faced with this complex situation, experts said that I should resist external pressure and adjust the RMB exchange rate independently.

"From the perspective of international economic game, considering that China has become the third largest export market in the United States and has the fastest growth rate, China may be the largest export market for energy saving and emission reduction technologies in the United States, and China holds a large number of US Treasury bonds and other factors, the United States is essentially unable to launch a trade war. China should stand up to pressure and adjust its own appreciation rate," said Lu commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank.

In fact, the official voice of the Chinese government also confirms the fact that the renminbi will not rise sharply at one time.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said that China would not allow the renminbi to appreciate rapidly at an economic debate held after the 8 annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank.

Zhou Xiaochuan added that China will carefully evaluate fiscal and monetary policies in the coming months to determine the future direction of China's economy.

Internally, it is necessary to further promote the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism.

Chen Xuebin, executive director of the China Finance Association and executive vice president of the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University, suggested that the floating range of RMB should be relaxed to a basket of currencies. On the one hand, it can give monetary policy a certain degree of independence. On the other hand, it helps to deal with strong and temporary capital flows, which is particularly important for China's current economic operation.

In addition to appropriately relaxing the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate, Tan Yaling, Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, pointed out that China's current exchange rate pattern lacks weight and combination.

She said frankly: "at the paction level, it still accounts for the largest proportion of the US dollar. At present, the weight of a basket of currencies is still dominated by US dollars, and the allocation of monetary weights is not yet mature, but it must be pushed so that domestic enterprises can have reference indicators to control their losses and profits."