The "Weak Dollar, High Oil Price" Bugle Sounded &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Domestic Oil Prices Approached The "Window".

In the past 5 months, international oil prices have mostly hovered below $77.

Under this linkage, domestic oil prices began to approach the "window", and the adjustment process of the pricing mechanism is expected to accelerate. The first step may be to shorten the interval of price adjustment.

Financial regulation bill deters speculation

International oil prices (WTI, the same below) dropped from 84 dollars in April to around 75-77 months after the national day, which has been running for nearly 5 months.

Zhong Jian, chief economist of Dongfang oil and gas network, an expert on oil prices, said that the reason for this scene is mainly that speculative funds have almost stagnated operations in the oil futures market since May.

In the past, speculative funds usually carried out speculative operations of "buying more" and "selling short" in a larger space of 13 to 50 thousand hands.

It is in the operating space of the speculative fund that swallows more than 8 hands each time, and international oil prices are often forced to fluctuate for about 10 US dollars.

But from May onwards, speculative funds carried out "micro operation" in the narrow space of 4 to 10 thousand hands, which made international oil prices calm a lot.

Therefore, it is not surprising that the average monthly price of international crude oil fluctuates only between 2 and 3 dollars.

Zhong Jian said.

The main reason why speculative funds are so "convergent" is to avoid the wind.

In July 15th this year, the US Senate passed the Dodd Frank act, which is 2300 pages thick, and listed all kinds of derivatives pactions. It is the largest and the most stringent banking reform bill since the great depression.

"This bill has great impact on oil speculators."

Zhong Jian said, "although the more explicit implementation rules have not yet been launched, the convergence and wait-and-see of the oil speculators headed by Goldman Sachs and Tama Mo are inevitable, because this can at least avoid the suspicion of" committing a crime against the wind "and avoid more accusations or stricter clauses by the regulatory authorities.

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"Weak" dollar promotes "strong" oil price

Zhong Jian believes that the "convergence" will continue under the background of the financial regulatory bill and the implementation details, and the international oil price will lose a key driving force.

However, during the National Day this year, international oil prices frequently changed: from $74 in September 22nd to $83 in October 6th.

This is quite unusual in the eyes of the industry, and is seen as a direct result of the depreciation of the US dollar.

In September 22nd and October 4th, Fed officials said they would expand their purchases of treasury bonds when necessary.

Subsequently, the US dollar index continued to fall, and the US bond market, gold market and crude oil represented commodity market were all boosted.

"For the domestic market, the international oil price approaching $80 is an important price threshold, as China's reference to the three ground oil change rate is about 79.4 US $79.4 on the 22 day break of 4%, and is now approaching this' window '."

Zhong Jian pointed out that, influenced by the continuous rise of international oil prices, the fluctuation of the three crude oil prices increased rapidly from negative to positive 1.7% in October 6th.

He believes that the key to domestic oil price adjustment is whether the international oil price will be stronger than US $80 in the future, while the latter depends on the direction of US monetary policy.

It has been reported that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bernanke and other directors have hinted that the policy meeting to be held from 2 to 3 November will be announced as soon as possible to expand the acquisition of bonds so as to boost economic growth and reduce the unemployment rate.

It seems that the weakening of the US dollar brought about by the US dollar expansion seems unavoidable, and the possibility of soaring oil prices has increased.

Domestic price adjustment cycle or shortening

Our newspaper reporter learned from the energy consulting agency, energy and energy, that the NDRC has begun to evaluate the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products launched last year, and issued a draft for the oil companies to adjust and improve the pricing mechanism. It clearly stated that the new oil pricing mechanism will shorten the price adjustment cycle and improve the operation mode of the operation of the refined oil prices.

In addition, the NDRC also added the following statement in the draft: "the price adjustment cycle is shortened and the frequency is accelerated. It can avoid risk free arbitrage caused by too pparent policies, guide market participants to respond rationally to price fluctuations, and lay the foundation for the complete marketization of oil products in the future."

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