PTA Short Term Callback Does Not Hinder Medium Term Rally.

This Monday

From a macro perspective, the current US, Japan and Europe release liquidity trend is obvious, the global monetary environment is becoming more relaxed, emerging markets will face pressure of capital inflow, the depreciation of US dollar will continue, and the international pressure of RMB appreciation will be greater.

From postganglionic

Loose monetary policy has led to a flood of liquidity and signs of inflation are becoming increasingly evident.

Commodities became the target of capital buying. On Monday, rubber and beans were on a daily limit, and cotton continued to show crazily up nearly 9%. In this context, PTA prices began to deviate from the basic supply chain of their own industrial chain, showing more financial attributes.

Among the many factors that affect the trend of PTA, the capital factor undoubtedly occupies the dominant position in the short-term market.

In terms of cost,

From the perspective of the relationship between supply and demand of PTA, the market's attention has been significantly reduced. In the case of buying up or not buying, a large number of speculative funds have intervened. People are worried about currency devaluation, more money than goods, and more social stocks can be accommodated by society.

In recent months, the overall supply and demand relationship of PTA has been balanced. The overhaul of the PTA factory in 8-9 months has also made the social inventory of the high level digested. The start-up of the new polyester device in the second half of the year is also conducive to the digestion of PTA at the later stage.

In view of the recent sharp rise in the price of PTA, the whole industry can still accept it, that is to say, the price rises.

For the PTA plant, the profit level has always been maintained at more than 1000 yuan / ton, while the polyester plant's monthly contract sales are not worrying.

For traders, the spot in the first half of the year can finally be solved, and it is also a great relief.

For downstream polyester factories, although the price of PTA has risen all the way, the cost of production has risen sharply. But because of the better profits, the price of PTA in front of it is within its acceptable range.

We use the most common polyester semi gloss chip to calculate the cost. If the half light section of the current 10800-11000 yuan / ton is taken, the acceptable raw material cost of PTA and MEG is 9000 yuan / ton, while the current PTA price is 8350-8400 yuan / ton, and MEG is only 8000 yuan / ton.

That is to say, the PTA price rises to around 9000, and it also has a basis from the downstream fundamentals.

Of course, the final cost of all raw materials will be pferred to the end of the textile and apparel industry. Polyester factory's high price of raw materials can continue until when can the terminal continue to accept the new high silk price in recent years? For this problem, the author thinks that we should continue to observe the downstream performance. After all, it is still in the traditional peak season, and the loom start up rate of the terminal is still at a high level.

According to news reports, the price of cotton and polyester has increased by more than 10% because of the rising price of cotton and polyester. The pressure brought by the cost increase has begun to shift to the terminal. Finally, consumers are paying the bill. For ordinary people, the necessities of life are rising, which is also called inflation. This is what we are facing now.

In the later stage, we should pay more attention to the appreciation of RMB and the change of export situation of textile and clothing, but these will affect PTA for a long time. After all, conduction is time difference.

Normally, when the new orders for textile products are significantly reduced, the end textile enterprises will reduce the purchase amount of polyester, which will directly affect the production and sale rate of polyester factories.

Of course, according to the current stock situation of polyester factories, it is still at a historical low level, many factories are less than a week in stock, and the pressure on factories is at least two weeks. That is to say, the production and marketing situation of polyester factories is less than 50% in half a month, and the pressure of stock in polyester factories will appear.

Obviously, in this traditional peak season, the pressure of polyester factory sales does not exist. Although the price of silk has reached a record high, it is expected that the polyester plant will remain in a better state for the rest of October.

Under the stimulation of high profit, terminal textile is difficult to influence the demand of PTA in October.

Relieving the worries of demand side, we should pay more attention to the impact of cost side and capital on PTA.

In terms of cost, PX and crude oil have a positive supporting role in PTA price.

Supply and demand level, after October, PTA supply and demand relations may also show a tight pattern, these factors are conducive to further upward trend of the market.

Of course, from the traditional industry procurement cycle, before and after the national day, polyester factories and traders completed the stock preparation in October near 8000, which is unfavorable for the short-term supply and demand relationship of PTA spot. Maybe there will be a more moderate adjustment market after the PTA price rises in mid October. After the adjustment, the PTA price will probably attack higher target.