The Possibility Of China'S "Two Bottom Finding" Further Reduced

Three quarter entrepreneurs

On the morning of October 13th, the National Bureau of statistics released the three quarter business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index.

The national business climate survey showed that the business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index in the three quarter were higher than those in the two quarter.

In the three quarter, the business climate index was 137.9, an increase of 2 points over the two quarter.

The three quarter entrepreneur confidence index was 135.9, an increase of 2.9 points over the two quarter.

Business climate index is a comprehensive reflection of enterprises.

In October 13th, Hu Chi, deputy director of the China Federation of enterprise research, interviewed by the China economic times, said that the business climate index continued to rise in the three quarter, and that the prosperity of enterprises in various industries rose steadily during the boom period. This fully reflects that since the beginning of the year, the pace of economic operation has been more stable and firm since the impact of the financial crisis.

Conversely, the possibility of a "two dip" may be further reduced, which is basically not an important factor to consider future policy orientation.

He said the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which was released not long ago, was 53.8%, up 2.1 percentage points from last month's September.

Since March 2009, the index has been in the critical point for more than 19 consecutive months, the expansion interval of more than 50%, indicating that China's manufacturing economy has shown a steady upward trend, and the growth rate has accelerated.

These two indexes confirm each other, indicating the good situation of the current operation of enterprises and the operation of macro-economy.

According to the results of the national enterprise prosperity survey, in terms of business prosperity, business prosperity of various industries has increased steadily in the boom area.

The three quarter,

Liu Youcheng, chief analyst of Hongyuan securities, told the China Economic Times reporters in October 13th that the business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index reflect the average change in the three months of the major industries. Although the data acquisition industry covers a wide range and has a strong comprehensive nature, it is not as sensitive as the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). PMI reflects the change in the manufacturing industry that month, and can see the change of orders.

In his view, despite the ample supply of money in the market, it is still hard to judge whether the whole economy is strong enough.

There are still many uncertainties in the market. The pressure of inflation expectations is high, the trend of price rising is obvious, the international market is not strong enough to absorb labor force, and there is still a high risk of unemployment.

Now all countries are preparing for the new stimulus plan, whether the economic recovery is really strong or not, depending on the economic performance of the one or two quarter of next year.

Hu Chi said that the three quarter entrepreneur confidence index continued to rise compared with the two quarter, reflecting the overall confidence of entrepreneurs in the future macroeconomic trend.

Corresponding to the above business climate index, it basically excludes fears that the economy may have "two bottom searches".

That is, economic growth has dropped, but it will remain at a higher level. And as premier Wen Jiabao said, such a fall is what we need to adjust our structure.