2010 Sino US War Field Shift To Trade

　　 At daggers drawn Monetary situation The situation finally ignited the smoke of trade protectionism. The game between China and the United States was moving from exchange rate to trade. Even WTO, who had never kept silent about exchange rates, could not sit still. Global trade 。

Although the US Treasury has chosen to suspend direct pressure on China on the issue of exchange rate, as a substitute for exchange rate, the blame for trade has increased. "Exchange rate war is only the front-end of international friction. Exchange rate disputes are only excuses. Launching trade wars is the essence." The views of experts seem to be corroborated.

According to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, in the half month of from October 1 to 15, 2010, the commerce department's trade relief and related cases in China amounted to 24, of which up to 9 in 12 days to 15 days in four days. From the perspective of the newly launched trade remedy, our reporter preliminary statistics, since September, the United States has launched 7 337 surveys in China, and a 301 survey involving many solar products, liquid crystal displays, printer cartridges, and many other products.

The recent US trade remedy to China is showing some new trends. First, it is gradually concentrated on high value-added products and new industries; two, unlike previous "double counter" measures, the United States recently used more 337 surveys and 301 surveys; and three, the recent US government departments have highly coordinated their trade accusations against China.

15 to the United States on China clean energy For example, according to the industry insider, the trade union of the United States labor union and the China Federation of trade unions also support the case, in addition to the United States government departments, and the internal departments have a package of packages, according to a 301 person investigation case.

Shortly after the US trade representative's office announced the 301 survey of clean energy launch in China, the US Economic Policy Institute released a series of data to prove that China's clean energy subsidies caused a surge in trade deficit with China, and said that the clean energy sector could provide a large number of highly paid jobs for the United States, which was hit hard by the background of globalization and trade deficit with China.

"In fact, the United States has not used the 301 clause since 1997, even though there are no applications filed by enterprises." Tu Xinquan, vice president of the WTO Research Institute of the University of foreign trade and economics, told the economic reference daily that the reason why the United States used the articles that were not used for many years was obvious. The purpose is obvious, that is, to show a gesture. The US government is concerned about the business conditions and actively responds to the requirements of the association.

"At the same time, it is also a signal for China to increase its pressure from the trade level. It can be judged that Sino US trade relations are in a more tense situation. " Tu Xinquan said.

"301 the difference between investigation and" double opposition "is that" double opposition "is aimed at some enterprises and products, while the 301 is to sweep away a large piece, but in fact, it is the game and regulation between governments. The director of the legal service center of China Chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical products import and export said to the economic reference daily.

"This trade issue and exchange rate are the same thing, all in order to achieve the 5 year export doubling strategy promised by the Obama administration. The logic of the United States is that exports stimulate economic growth, increase employment and then achieve economic prosperity. In an interview with the economic reference daily, Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of world economics, China Institute of modern international relations, said that the Sino US game is deepening and is currently a contest of comprehensive control of comprehensive strength. The United States hopes to revive the economic prosperity and international leading position of the United States.

"Exchange rate" and "trade protection" are the two major weapons used by the United States. The reason why they began to trade protectionism recently is closely related to the effect of the exchange rate war on the goal of boosting exports. The unemployment rate in the United States remains at a high level of 9.6%, and the economic recovery is staggering. The two major issues closely grasp the focus of the public in the United States and become the two difficult problem for us politicians to answer in order to get votes.

The shadow of exchange rate war and trade war unexpectedly arrived, which made WTO have to pay attention to monetary policy. The director general of the World Trade Organization 18 points out that there is growing concern that exchange rate disputes will threaten global trade. "At present, this is a risk, but this risk is dangerous for trade." Rami said. WTO has always thought that monetary issues are the task of IMF, and rarely talk about exchange rates.

Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Financial Research Institute of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Academy of Social Sciences, said that developed countries tried to improve net exports through quantitative easing policy to drive the depreciation of their currencies, but the Central Bank of emerging market countries intervened in foreign exchange market to curb the appreciation of the currencies of developed countries. If the developed countries can not improve their net exports through devaluation of their currencies, a more simple and crude approach will be adopted, namely, anti-dumping measures, countervailing measures, punitive tariffs and other protective measures against imported goods from emerging market countries.

"If developed countries take trade protectionism hastily, emerging market countries may also adopt the" counterattack "measures. The exchange rate war has thus evolved into a trade war. Zhang Ming said.

The approaching of the mid-term elections in November has cast a shadow over the prospects of Sino US economic and trade relations. Chen Fengying said that the balanced growth theory introduced by the United States will have more room at the summit of the twenty nations. The United States is likely to ask more countries to cooperate to exert pressure on China at the end of this month, and the Sino US economic and trade relations have reached a critical stage.

　　 Cheng Yongru, director of the study committee of the association of European and American students, told the economic reference daily that rule game, institutional competition, public choice and exchange rate debate are the main characteristics of trade friction this year and even in the future. The public choice represents the need of western representative government and elective politics. Sino US trade friction will exist for a long time, and will grow along with the development of industry and the rising of value chain. Under the influence of many factors, such as party politics, international relations, strategic interests, government roles and national conditions, development stages and concepts, and changes in demands for mutual market access, we sometimes have to intensify and sometimes relax.