After Raising Interest Rates, We Should Pay Attention To Six Aspects.

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Since the central bank issued the benchmark interest rate for Raising Renminbi deposits and loans in October 19th evening, many depositors began to withdraw their bank deposits for the purpose of enjoying new interest rates.

According to the calculation, a one year regular deposit will only take 42 days.

The interest rate increase of three months, half a year, one year, two years, three years and five years increased by 0.2%, 0.22%, 0.25%, 0.46%, 0.52% and 0.6% respectively.

Unlike the previous increase in interest rates, the increase in deposit rates below one year is less than loans. The rate of deposit interest rate above one year is greater than that of loans. The rate of interest increase in one year is not 0.27 percentage points in the past, but 0.25 percentage points, and the deposit interest rate has increased by 0.6 percentage points in five years.

The interest rate on demand deposits remained unchanged at 0.36%.

Thus, assuming that a central bank customer has 10 thousand yuan, the interest rate of the customer increased by 20 yuan, 22 yuan, 25 yuan, 46 yuan, 52 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, according to the deposit interest rates of three months, six months, one year, two years, three years and five years after the interest rate increase.

In the industry, what is the most cost-effective way to handle the pfer? In the industry, someone put forward the calculation method of the "critical point of pfer": 360 days * storage period (year) x (new periodic annual interest rate old regular annual interest rate) (new periodic annual interest rate current interest rate) = appropriate pfer time limit.

At the current real deposit rate, the new annual interest rate is 2.50%, the old annual interest rate is 2.25%, and the current interest rate is 0.36%. The formula is: 360 * 1 x (2.5-2.25) 2.5-0.36 (=42) days, that is, the appropriate pfer time is about 42 days. By analogy, it can be concluded that the two year period is about 84 days, three years are about 126 days, and five years are about 126 days.

That is to say, if the customer deposits are within the corresponding days, the pfer will be advantageous.

Otherwise, do not turn over and wait for the next rate hike.

Comment: insiders say that due to the possibility of increasing interest rates, it is suggested that customers should not have too long deposit time, which is more suitable for a year or so.

So once interest rates rise again, investors can quickly pfer to enjoy the new interest rate when they expire.

Other experts said that although the rate hike raised interest rates to 2.5%, compared with 3.5% of CPI, the real interest rate was negative. It is suggested that other investment channels must be taken into account in the proposal to get rid of negative interest rates.

Most products of financial products benefit from short-term products

In the era of "negative interest rates", the relatively conservative risk-free financial products, such as time deposits and certificate bonds, can not defeat the high CPI (consumer price index), while the risk of commercial banks' financial products is generally low, and the rate of return is generally higher than that of the same period.

Since the interest rate of investment products such as bonds and bonds is closely related to the benchmark interest rate, the yield of related financial products will rise after entering the cycle of raising interest rates.

Financial products analysts believe that after the interest rate hike, especially in the context of further increase in interest rates is expected to increase, the interbank bond market interest rate is expected to further rise, which will lead to the market interest rate as the benchmark for RMB financial products revenue rose.

In addition, trust products can also get a free ride with "raise interest rates".

Liu Yanbin, Secretary General of Specialized Committee, the national financial planner, believes that the relationship between the income of trust products and the market interest rate is relatively large. After the banks increase interest rates, the proceeds of trust products will be correspondingly raised.

The yield of structured financial products will not increase significantly with the increase in interest rates. Structural products still need more attention to the design and market volatility of the underlying products.

But Liu Yanbin also pointed out that the interest rate increase is only 25 basis points, because the yield of financial products is generally only slightly higher than that of the bank at the same time. Therefore, most financial products are still running "no win" inflation.

Although raising interest rates can raise the expected yield of some financial products, increasing interest rates is sometimes not good news for fixed income products.

It is understood that in October 29, 2004 -2007 August 21st, the central bank in 8 years to increase interest rates in less than 3 years, making a joint stock bank issued a five year financial product yield less than the bank deposit, the bank had to stop this product ahead of schedule.

At the same time, reporters also learned that some banks stipulate that if guaranteed financial products are redeemed in advance, investors can not guarantee the principal amount of 100%.

Therefore, Liu Yanbin suggested that investors should be short and not long in the purchase of financial products, and pay attention to some varieties with strong liquidity within one year.

"In addition, interest rate increases do not exclude the possibility of further appreciation of the renminbi. Investors holding foreign currencies should consider settlement of foreign exchange."

Liu Yanbin said.

Comments: financial products yield is often linked to the benchmark interest rate. After raising interest rates, the yield of bank financial products is bound to increase, but the rate will follow the pace of interest rate adjustment accordingly.

At present, the possibility that the central bank will raise interest rates again will still exist. Investors should consider the medium and short term products.

Insurance pays attention to all risks and bonus risks.

"This increase in interest rates exceeds market expectations and helps to increase the return on fixed income investments of insurance companies."

Shenyin Wanguo pointed out in the report.

As most of the insurance funds are invested in fixed income, interest rate increases are good for insurance companies.

But what kind of insurance is it more beneficial for policyholders to buy?

Insurance experts point out that if entering the interest rate cycle will have a certain impact on traditional life insurance.

It is reported that the traditional life insurance is a typical two life insurance. It usually refers to the conditions stipulated in the insurance contract, that is, death or survival is the insurance payment condition during the insurance period, and it also has the function of protection and savings.

It is worth mentioning that this "savings" was agreed before or at present, and will not change with the increase of interest rates.

"If interest rates increase, the attractiveness of such products will be weakened."

An actuary of an insurance company points out, "but risk protection should also be the first choice for the purchase of insurance. A small increase in deposit interest rate will not have a substantial impact on the sales of insurance products."

A single increase in interest rates will not affect sales of insurance products.

It is understood that the current predetermined interest rate of traditional insurance products is 2.5%, which is equivalent to the one year deposit rate; for the dividend insurance and universal insurance products, the dividend level and the universal insurance settlement rate are much higher than 2.5%.

Shenyang Wanguo pointed out that the interest rate increase would have little impact on equity investment, and the investment return rate of insurance companies increased slightly in combination with the positive impact of fixed income investments.

The increase of investment income is beneficial to the increase of bonus income related to investment income and the increase of universal insurance settlement interest rate.

In addition, some analysts pointed out that while the interest rate cycle is beneficial to the fixed income investment of insurance companies, it has increased the pressure of equity investment closely related to the capital market. Therefore, the most closely linked investment risk will be further squeezed.

Commercial review: security is the key to preventing personal risks, and traditional personal insurance should not be reduced with interest rate increase.

After raising interest rates, the universal insurance settlement interest rate will not be raised soon, and the accounts of the insured will not be favorable. Compared with the insurance company investment, the dividend risk is more worthy of choice.

fund

Money fund hedge fund should stay away.

"Monetary fund can be used as a haven in the short term, but it is not recommended to hold for a long time."

Northeast Securities Finance and Industry Research Institute fund researcher Feng Jian thinks.

The current round of interest rate increases has the flavor of "Xiang Zhuang sword", although the most direct purpose is to curb inflation, but the actual effect is to cool down the real estate market, fight against speculation in the stock market and reduce commodity prices, and the control of the property market has long been proven not to be resolved by a single policy, so it is likely to enter the interest rate cycle.

Feng Jian analyzed that money market funds are the main investors in short-term money market instruments such as treasury bonds, bank bills and commercial bills. The average residual period is controlled within 180 days, which has strong liquidity and can effectively avoid interest rate risk.

However, because the yield is very low, according to the latest data of Morningstar, the average annual conversion rate of 66 money market funds is 7 on average, and the annual rate of return is basically 2%. The growth rate of the weekly net value is only 0.17%, so it is not recommended to hold for a long time.

The biggest advantage of money market funds as a financial tool is that the assets of the fund may expire in a very short period of time. These rolling funds can be invested in short-term bonds with higher yield and higher interest rates.

For bond funds, Feng Jian said that entering the interest rate cycle is equally bad for bond funds. Investors who already hold bond funds should be treated differently. Short-term holdings have little impact, and long-term holders should consider turning.

Comment: after raising interest rates, it seems that money is on the rise of bank income, but from the international market, it is necessary to introduce hot money, thus bringing a new wave to the capital market. At this time, we should move the money out.

Investors should not choose the products of debt fund and linked bond market, but should prefer to choose products and funds that are relatively closely related to the stock market.

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bond market

Short term bonds "have opportunities to take advantage of"

The central bank's 19 day "unexpected increase in interest rates" has made another round of shocks to the bond market which itself has been "cold".

But many analysts say that raising interest rates is a double-edged sword for the bond market, and there are still investment opportunities in the bond market.

"The seesaw effect based on" strong debt weakness "and" strong debt weakness ", as the stock market has gone up, the bond market has ended the first half of the year, but the current round of interest rate adjustment will also push forward the bond market interest rate accordingly.

Analysts said.

The analysts also believe that although interest rates will cause bond prices to fall, the upward trend of yields also brings investment opportunities in the bond market. At present, the market has relatively loose capital and can invest in short-term varieties.

But the chief economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu commissar, has a slightly different view. He believes that the current bond market is not the best investment option, but that it can properly configure short-term bonds that are not more than one year, but the allocation should be more cautious.

Lu commented at the same time, investors should not blindly follow suit. For the elderly, the bond market is still a more stable investment channel. However, this increase in interest rates may prompt the bond issuers to "sniff" the risk of raising interest rates. In order to reduce the issue cost as far as possible, the issuance process of the bonds is expected to accelerate.

At the same time, for overseas investors, the RMB bond market is still a good choice. As the overall economy is improving, the demand for RMB bonds is increasing overseas, while the mainland encourages enterprises to issue more RMB bonds in Hongkong, the issuers of bonds are in an advantageous position, which can increase the attraction of mainland enterprises to overseas.

Comment: bond market is difficult to avoid the pressure brought by interest rate increase, but it can change pressure into power and enter the upward period of earnings.

Experienced investors can properly grasp the rational and diversified allocation of capital, and the opportunities for short-term investment to benefit are not small.

Housing loan

Do not forget to repay more and make good use of the provident fund loan.

Real estate regulation policy continued to "overweight", so that people who originally wanted to buy houses maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Compared with the first suite loan 30 percent off interest rate in name only, two mortgage interest rates floating on the basis of the benchmark interest rate 10%, and the down payment ratio is 50%, three mortgage loans stop policy, the loan benchmark interest rate increase, for those who have the desire to buy a house loan, it is just like adding insult to injury.

According to the latest interest rate adjustment by the central bank, the loan interest rate has increased from 5.94% to 6.14% over five years.

Taking loans 1 million yuan and 20 years equivalent repayment of principal and interest as an example, after the interest rate rises, according to the first mortgage 15% off, buyers will have to repay more than 94.48 yuan a month, with a total expenditure of about 22676.12 yuan. The purchase of the second suite takes 1 million yuan and 20 years equivalent repayment of principal and interest as an example. After raising interest rates, it will pay more than 130.24 yuan per month according to the 1.1 times of the two apartment loan, with a total expenditure of about 31256.73 yuan per month.

Interest rates will increase the cost of home buyers' housing loans. Under the condition of high housing prices, the economic pressure of buying houses is not small. Now it is subject to interest rate increase, which will cause many buyers to postpone or change their purchase plans.

Yesterday, the Ministry of housing issued a notice on adjusting the interest rate of housing provident fund.

The notice said that from October 20, 2010 onwards, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund deposits raised 0.2 percentage points from the current 1.71% to 1.91%.

The interest rate of individual housing provident fund deposits collected in the same year remained unchanged.

According to the notice, from October 20th onwards, the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate will be raised.

The interest rates of individual housing provident fund loans increased by 0.17 and 0.18 percentage points respectively under five years (including five years) and five years or more.

The following five years (including five years) were adjusted from 3.33% to 3.50%, and from five to 3.87% over the five year period.

Take the loan of 300 thousand yuan as an example, according to the five year period (including five years) provident fund loan interest rate adjusted from 3.33% to 3.50%, before the adjustment, buyers will have a monthly supply of 5434.71 yuan, and the adjustment will be 5457 yuan, with a monthly repayment of more than 22.29 yuan.

If the loan is still 300 thousand yuan, for example, in accordance with the five year or more provident fund loan interest rate from 3.87% to 4.05%, before adjustment, the monthly repayment is 1797.46 yuan. After interest rate adjustment, the monthly repayment is 1825.85 yuan, and buyers will have to repay more than 28.39 yuan per month.

Comment: from the above data, it is easy to see that the impact of interest rate increases on home buyers' loans is still very large. Whether it is self occupied, investment or speculation, the era of using low-cost housing preferential policies to purchase houses is temporarily over.

Raising interest rates has raised higher requirements for the economic strength of the buyers, and the cost of mortgage loans has increased considerably. Buyers should consider more.