The Textile Industry: To Go To The Gold &Nbsp, And To Underestimate The Undergarment Stocks.

In September, the cumulative growth rate of industrial exports declined and inflection point. In 1-9, the cumulative export volume of the industry reached 149 billion 820 million, and the exports of textiles, clothing, textiles and clothing increased by 23.14%, 30.7% and 19%, respectively. The growth rate dropped 0.62, 1.6 and 0.02 percentage points respectively over the previous 8 months.

Appreciation does not affect Industry export The main factors. The weakening effect of RMB appreciation on the growth of China's textile and clothing exports in the past 2005-2008 years was very obvious. In 2007, it was most significant, and this factor was weakening after 2009.

The upward trend in cotton prices has not diminished. In spite of the fact that the state has introduced a tightening credit policy restricting cotton enterprises, a slowdown in textile and clothing exports, and a reduction in production and output of small and medium-sized textile enterprises, some market analysts believe that cotton prices are slowing down, but we maintain that "cotton prices do not change trend".

　　 Price shifting Impact on domestic autumn sales. On the one hand, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and knitwear retail sales are related to seasonal factors. On the other hand, the rise in the prices of medium and high grade clothing has restrained consumption demand.

Rents and deduction points promote the spanformation of brand clothing profit pattern. With the increasing market strength and the increase of rents and deduction points, the ability of enterprises to enhance the gross margin level becomes more critical.

The negative impact of light interest rate increases on the industry. According to our calculations, interest rates increased by 941 million yuan in the textile industry, accounting for 1.2% of the total profit of 76 billion 421 million yuan. The interest rate increase made the garment industry increase interest expense by 234 million yuan, accounting for 0.7% of the total profit of 34 billion 533 million yuan. Therefore, we are more sensitive to the impact of interest rate increase on the textile and garment industry.

12th Five-Year plan to provide Brand clothing And theme stocks opportunities. The main theme of the recent "12th Five-Year plan" is likely to bring theme opportunities to some diversified textile companies, but our main concern is still the brand clothing that benefits from the concept of consumption.