Nylon Plant Starts To Pick Up And Output Gradually Increases.
Since the autumn of October, the market of nylon has been going well. The market of raw caprolactam and nylon chips is strong, and the price rises nearly a thousand yuan in the past month, and prices remain strong. Before and after the Mid Autumn Festival and the national day, the market performance of nylon yarn is particularly strong. The price of nylon yarn in the pre market market is up to more than 1000 yuan. The products after the festival continue to show a slight upward trend. The increase is between 200-500 yuan / ton, though the amplitude is not as strong as before the holiday, but overall, the nylon market is strong.
Then, nylon market.
Aftermarket
Whether the company will continue to show a significant upward trend? I believe that up to now, the upstream and downstream factories of nylon have shown a cautious wait-and-see mood, and there will be a period of consolidation in the coming market. If there is a pull up performance, there will be no more upward trend, or only a small increase.
From the perspective of comprehensive market, the author makes the following analysis:
First, the price of raw materials has increased considerably.
In September, the market of nylon raw material caprolactam internal market has always been in the market.
strong
In the vicinity of 21800 yuan / ton, after entering October, its price rose from the price level of 21800-22000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 22800-23000 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and the price rose to 1000 yuan / ton.
The market price of caprolactam in the external market was raised from 2600-2630 US dollars / ton in September to 2750-2780 US dollars in October.
Range
Nearly 150 U.S. dollars / ton.
From the perspective of raw materials, the price of conventional spinning and high-speed spinning in the East China market was respectively 24000 yuan / ton and 24200 yuan / ton in September, and the paction price rose to 24700 yuan / ton and 24900 yuan / ton respectively in mid October, and the price increase was 700 yuan / ton.
In the recent week, the price of raw materials has been stable at this price level, and the market trend of nylon upper and lower markets has begun to consolidate.
Two. The operating rate has picked up and the output has been gradually raised.
In September, the operation rate of the upper and lower nylon factories continued to be affected by the power factor limitation, which indicated that the overall start-up rate was around 60%, which made the market supply tight and even broke out. After entering the golden autumn October, the power restriction policy eased, indicating that the factory opening rate has picked up. From the beginning of the month, the operation resumed to more than 70%, and after the middle of the year, the start-up rate of most factories was restored to more than 90%.
The recovery of operating rate has gradually increased factory output and alleviated the tense atmosphere of product supply for a long time.
The supply side is improving, and the market volume of goods is keeping pace with the pace. The possibility that the price of products will continue to rise sharply has been narrowed. The factory side has indicated that the price is basically cautious, with capital preservation or small profits as the main factor, and that the price of the previous products has been substantially increased. At present, the price is basically stable, so as to avoid a lot of heavy lifting, which will affect the buying and waiting mood of the lower reaches and cause the accumulation of goods.
Three. The market demand is stable.
As a whole, the average production of the manufacturers has been at a high level. However, due to the fact that the initial inventory is not large enough, the market price will continue to maintain a firm and stable trend. The demand side is generally balanced, with the prudent principle of ordering production and replenishing goods on demand.
Especially in the downstream nylon interwoven fabric market, the domestic fabrics such as NIS spinning, Jindi spinning and tayllong series continue to maintain a steady sales volume. The weaving, purchasing and shipping status of the fabrics in the autumn and winter are mainly stable at present. In addition, due to the upcoming winter market demand, preparations have been made as early as a few months ago.
Four. Policy side affects market wait-and-see sentiment.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Commerce and import and Export Fair Trade Bureau decided to hold a hearing on dumping investigation of caprolactam in the Ministry of Commerce in November 4th.
If the caprolactam anti-dumping case is set up, then the favorable environment for Chinese enterprises will become negative after the initial affirmation of the anti-dumping case of the imported nylon chips, and the rare development opportunities of the domestic polymerization enterprises will once again be exhausted by huge raw material pressure.
There has been wait-and-see sentiment in the upper and lower reaches of the market. Most factories and enterprises are mainly based on the principle of "purchasing cautiously and placing on demand".
On the other hand, the continued appreciation of the RMB has directly affected China's foreign trade export market. The appreciation of the renminbi against foreign currencies has led to a sharp decline in the actual Renminbi yield of export products that are steadily priced in foreign exchange, and the profit margins of exporters are declining rapidly while China's export earnings have reached a new high. Up to now, the appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar is about 2%, while the gross margin of most Chinese exporters' exports is only 2%. If the RMB exchange rate is increased by 3% again, countless Chinese exporters will have no profit or even lose money after the export to the US market in 2010 according to the original agreement export price.
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