The Butterfly Effect Of Xinjiang Cotton City Is All Over The City.

After garlic and beans, what is the goal of hot money speculation? The answer is

In October 21st, a forum on cotton situation organized by the Henan cotton association was held in Zhengzhou, with participants from Nanyang.

Year of disaster + shortage of cotton = price increase

cotton

Another reason for the decline in cotton production is that cotton is not as profitable as other crops.

"In recent years, cotton prices and other agricultural products have not been reasonably priced. With the increase in agricultural prices and labor costs, the cotton planting area has been decreasing year by year, and cotton production is expected to be significantly lower than last year, so cotton farmers are reluctant to sell and cotton prices are rising."

Huang Li said.

In August this year, Green, vice general manager of Zhengzhou futures business department of Xinjiang, led some cotton futures customers to visit Xinjiang cotton area, and had a deeper understanding of the current cotton planting situation: "Xinjiang is the main cotton producing area in China. Many Henan people contracted land for planting, but they only planted 10% of their land for planting cotton, because cotton seeds were not as profitable as other crops."

An Junfeng said that in the past four or five years, almost all of the cotton planting "disaster years" (that is not conducive to the growth of cotton), even if the high yield, cotton prices will be lower, cotton cheap injury to farmers, when the cumulative effect of successive cotton "disaster years" superposition, the formation of the current shortage of cotton.

Ma Zhoucun, chairman of the four cotton company in Zhengzhou, said that with the gradual recovery of domestic economy, the demand for cotton began to increase and the gap between production and demand increased.

"Continuous rising cotton prices have brought great difficulties to textile enterprises. For example, we can only pick up small bills now, and compensate for large ones, which has an impact on the continuity and stability of production."

Ma Zhou hopes to limit speculation in raw materials and maintain stable and continuous production.

Can his wishes be realized?

All the streets are "fried cotton balls".

Among the most famous speculators in Wenzhou is the real estate group, but the most popular one is Wenzhou's "fried cotton regiment". This is the media hype. The manager of Zhengzhou, a manager who has just returned from Xinjiang, tells the story of what he knows.

In October 27th, a Boeing 737 from Urumqi to Hangzhou stopped for a short stay at Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport, and 80% of the original passengers re boarded and flew away.

"Most of the machines are members of the fried cotton group from Wenzhou, Zhejiang. They speak dialect and wear large gold rings on their fingers. There is only one key word: cotton. They have only one goal for Xinjiang: to rob cotton."

Manager Li said.

Li's neighbour knew that he had consulted cotton related work and was very diligent in consulting him about cotton prices.

"Zhejiang businessmen, represented by Wenzhou, have strong financial strength. After this round of cotton price rise, many of them began to hype and hoarded cotton in Xinjiang and Zhejiang Province, which aggravated the skyrocketing cotton prices."

A Futures Company official revealed that one of his clients in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had just cut off more than 3 million yuan of cotton futures, and had gained more than ten million yuan in one month and left safely.

"He made more money in the cotton futures price of 16 thousand yuan / ton, 26 thousand yuan / ton when he came out of the market. This is the classic route of Jiangsu and Zhejiang capital speculation cotton: in the spot market hoarding goods, crazy buying up, doing more in the futures market, and making quick profits in a short time. Look at the distribution of cotton futures more than single positions, most of which are made up in Zhejiang Futures Company such as Yongan futures and new lake futures seats."

However, in the eyes of the responsible person, compared with the international speculative fund, the speculation of the Zhejiang Merchants' cotton group is only a small game compared with the speculation of the international speculative fund. There is already a flood trend in the global financial sector, which may be the root cause of the soaring cotton prices.

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Commodity financial trap

A butterfly in Xinjiang is flapping its wings, and the cotton market in Henan may set off a "big wave". Huang Li has a personal understanding of this.

She said that the stir fried cotton troupe and the local cotton farmers' reluctance to sell have brought great influence to the textile industry. In the past year, the acquisition task should have completed a large part, but this year is extremely unsatisfactory.

Cotton mill inventory is low, resource gap is big, already appeared to rush buying momentum.

Meng Shaohui, President of the provincial Cotton Association, believes that the key to solve the problem of cotton safety in China is to mobilize cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting through various means.

From iron ore to crude oil, from soybeans to nonferrous metals, the rise in the price of every commodity has made China suffer.

Just a few days ago, the NDRC raised the retail price of refined oil, and China's finished oil prices hit a new high.

At the recently concluded Canton Fair, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming publicly told the media that he was worried about the "runaway" issue of the US currency issue and the sharp rise in global commodity prices.

The inflationary impact of the sharp rise in international commodity prices on China is known as "imported inflation", which has led to "high fever" in China's CPI data.

Ma Jianjun, manager of Henan Sheng Jin investment fund, believes that commodities are no longer a commodity in the eyes of international speculators. Instead, they become financial instruments. They stir up stocks and stir up commodity prices. In the case of US cotton, the US cotton has increased by 80% in the past three months. The signs of large international fund hype are very obvious, and speculators get huge profits.

Ma Jianjun believes that in recent years, the price rise of many domestic commodities is generally induced by the price increase of the variety in the international market. On the surface, it seems that there is international reality background, and speculation is justified enough.

Although China has three commodity futures exchanges, "made in China" is sold in the world, but the pricing power of commodities is not in China. The trap of mass commodity financing threatens the safety of "made in China" at all times.