Li Xunlei: Do Not Use Microscope To See Macroeconomic Trends

After the subprime mortgage crisis, many people are worried about the global economy: the high unemployment rate in the United States, the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and other countries, and even the bursting of the real estate bubble in Dubai have become the two basis for the global economy. The US quantitative monetary policy, the depreciation of the US dollar, and the spread of global currency also create worries about the global currency war and fear future inflation. However, from the last century to 60s, we have been instilled or heard every moment of the problems and crises facing the United States, but this "dying" imperialism still leads the global economy for 50 years. Without the huge consumption and technological progress of the United States, there will be the rapid development of the global economy and the dominance of China's exports.

Because everyone is used to it. Microscope Look at the problem, look at the monthly economic data and see more and more professional economic indicators, so we are worried all the time. And if you look back, use a microscope. Look at the macro It's a real worry. Generally speaking, economic development will be smooth and smooth after the big crisis, and there will be no continuous crisis. For example, after the 1978 world oil crisis, the global stock market caused by black Monday in 1987 broke out 10 years ago. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 were 10 years apart. From this point of view, we do not seem to worry too much that another crisis will soon erupt.

On the other hand, optimists often tend to see certain phenomena as trends, and believe that they are at the watershed of historical transition at any time. For example, in the early days of the burst of Internet bubble in 2000, we all agreed that global and China have reached the new economic stage. Today, new energy, low carbon economy, Internet of things and other fashionable vocabulary can be seen everywhere. It seems that China's heavy industrialization process has ended and entered another new economy or post industrial society stage. In fact, economic development mode The transformation is a gradual process. The official document on the transformation of China's growth pattern was first seen in 1995. It has been 15 years ago, but our economy is still dominated by investment and export. In the next ten years, export dependence will drop, but China's position as the world's largest manufacturing power will not drop, but will only consolidate. The most important driving force for China's economy is the process of urbanization, that is, advancing to the level of urbanization rate of 60%. In this process, investment is still the main driving force for economic growth. Housing consumption and automobile consumption will still be the two engines of stimulating consumption. In that case, how can China's heavy chemical industry decline? At the very least, the growth rate has slowed down. Each country has its development stage. China's urbanization is corresponding to China's heavy industrialization. The low carbon economy of developed countries is also compatible with the proportion of their service industry reaching 70%. Therefore, we should not use microscope to magnify the proportion of lithium batteries and biomedicine in China's economic value added.

World changes are much slower than people's aging. This will lead us to see the trend of economic and social development, and often become impatient. In the face of a lot of information noise every day, it is easy to be misled and easy to see wind or rain. If we go over the articles and books on future trend prediction published in the past few years, it is easy to see that many viewpoints and judgements are making a mountain out of a molehill. Therefore, the author of China's economy judge It will continue to grow rapidly along the urbanization growth pattern of the past 10 years, and the economic structural adjustment is gradual. While promising emerging industries, it is still optimistic about the prospect of heavy chemical industry. The global economy will not erupt in the short term, and this will also support China's smooth economic growth in the next five years.