After A Short Adjustment, &Nbsp; PTA Speeds Up Again.

Rising production costs will drive

After the start of the new round of quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve, the dollar price of international crude oil prices will continue to go up, and the production cost of PTA will further rise in the future, and the price center of PTA futures and spot market will also move upward.

On Wednesday evening, the Fed's Conference on interest rates issued a statement that it continued to maintain the federal funds interest rate unchanged from 0 to 0.25%, and maintained the existing policy of reinvesting funds on maturity securities.

On the basis of that, it will also take the lead in the second quarter of 2011 to buy US $600 billion in longer-term US Treasury bonds, averaging about $75 billion per month.

The Fed's decision is basically in line with market expectations, and the supply of adequate US dollars will lead to continuous rise in international commodity prices in dollar terms over the next six months, and the international crude oil price range will gradually increase.

China's crude oil output is relatively stable, and the growth of demand is mainly dependent on imports.

In 2009, China's crude oil dependence increased to 50% above, and is showing a steady upward trend.

When domestic crude oil consumption is mainly dependent on international crude oil, the rise in international crude oil prices will inevitably drive up the production costs of related products in downstream China.

PTA is located downstream of crude oil, and its rising production cost will raise the focus of PTA futures trading.

Judging from the parity between PTA and crude oil, it is maintained at a reasonable interval without obvious anomalies. This indicates that PTA futures price has not been overestimated relative to the upstream crude oil.

The increase in US dollar liquidity will lead to an increase in the cost of PTA production in the future and will not exclude the possibility that PTA prices will return to the upper level of 10000 yuan mark.

Polyester cotton substitution effect boosts PTA price uplink

In addition to the Fed's loose monetary policy that will lead to higher production costs, the current fundamentals of supply and demand are also important factors for PTA futures to lead the domestic commodity market.

The supply of cotton market continued to be tight this autumn, and cotton prices continued to rise to strengthen the substitution effect of polyester on cotton yarn.

Limited by planting area and yield per unit area, the growth of global cotton production is limited. The growth of consumption demand in textile and garment industry mainly depends on the growth of chemical fiber production. The substitution effect of chemical fiber on cotton yarn has always existed.

This year, the tight supply of cotton market has strengthened the substitution effect of chemical fiber. Due to the dominant position of polyester fiber in chemical fiber, its demand increased significantly in the peak season of clothing production in autumn and winter. The prices of related products continued to rise, the price of polyester filament increased steadily, and the price of polyester staple fiber, which had a direct substitution effect on cotton yarn, had risen to 13300 yuan / ton.

In the case of a sharp rise in production profits, many polyester staple fiber production lines, which were closed for a long time due to losses, were re opened, which exacerbated the tight supply of PTA in the short term.

At present, PTA manufacturers can hardly guarantee the supply of contracted goods even if they are full load production. The downstream polyester enterprises have begun to increase procurement in spot market, and the spot price of PTA has risen to 9000 yuan / ton.

Thursday PTA futures contract is mainly due to the downstream centralized procurement, resulting in short-term market supply constraints, due to the fall of consumption peak has gradually gone, it is expected that this extreme market will not last long.

The market is still soaring under the market.

The booming demand for polyester industry has led to an acceleration of PTA futures adjustment. Investors are generally optimistic about the future trend, but the market is not without negative factors.

The peak of textile and clothing production is gradually passing, and the final consumer market will soon be tested. How will the actual consumption situation affect the later trend of PTA?

After the financial crisis, the increase in global banknote issuance did not significantly increase the consumption power of ordinary consumers. The end consumption of textile and clothing may not be as optimistic as market expectations.

In addition to the uncertainty of terminal consumption, changes in domestic monetary policy do not support PTA prices continuing to rise significantly.

On the one hand, the inflation pressure of the domestic market is higher than that of the insurance growth. The central bank will continue to recycle liquidity after raising interest rates, which will inhibit the rising space of PTA. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB also leads to a decline in the competitiveness of textile and apparel products in the international market in the downstream of the PTA industry chain, which will slow down the growth of domestic PTA consumption.

In the short term, the spread of US dollar liquidity temporarily obscures the negative effects of domestic interest rate increases and RMB appreciation, but in the long run, the adverse effects will eventually be reflected in the market.

Based on the above analysis, PTA's acceleration after the short term adjustment was mainly affected by the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which led to the cost increase. In the short term, the purchasing power of the downstream polyester enterprises also intensified the situation that the market was in short supply. Strengthening the substitution effect of polyester and cotton was the main reason for the tight supply of PTA market.

The market is full of negative factors. The adverse effects of interest rate increase and RMB appreciation will gradually appear. It is recommended that spot enterprises do hedging ahead of time and pay attention to the actual sales of clothing this winter.

PTA futures main force took the lead from the 1101 contract to the 1105 contract shift, indicating that the market is strongly optimistic about the trend of the latter stage. At present, the price difference between the contract and the far month contract is showing a trend of gradual expansion. It is expected that there will be a positive arbitrage opportunity in the future. A steady investor can wait for the entry of the risk free arbitrage opportunity. 1101, the pressure on the remaining 9000 yuan / ton after the entry of the 9000 yuan / ton contract will continue to increase. In January, when the consumption season is in the low season, the probability of switching to high oscillation finishing is higher.