PTA Will Continue To Be Strong In The Busy Season Of Production And Marketing.

　　 After the National Day holiday, there are many audiences. Benefit factor Influence PTA futures Out of a round of inflation. The main reason is Cotton prices rose For the domestic textile enterprises Procurement pressure, and now coincides with the domestic textile enterprises start production peak period, high cotton prices undoubtedly stimulate the price of polyester. In addition, the rising prices of imported raw materials PX and MX have led to a surge in the cost of PTA production, which has also provided impetus for the current rally. At present, the price of PTA is close to the historical high in 2008. Whether or not it can break through smoothly or become the focus of investor concern has become a focus. I believe that at present, there is no significant negative fundamentals, and international oil prices remain stable, and domestic inflation affects commodity prices, making it difficult for PTA prices to fall sharply in the future.

International oil prices are strong, and the latter is expected to continue to rise.

Since September, international oil prices have continued to rise. At present, around 82 US dollars per barrel, the main reason for the rise in oil prices is still affected by inflation expectations. At present, the US Federal Reserve continues to launch the stimulus policy's anticipation to strengthen, because the US current economic trend is still weak, especially the unemployment rate stays high, the Federal Reserve will launch the quantitative easing monetary policy second times recently. The stimulus package launched by developed countries has increased the inflation expectations of the market, resulting in a further spread of liquidity, and the US dollar index will continue to weaken. This will also provide support for the rise in oil prices. In addition, the extreme cold in the northern hemisphere since the winter of this year will provide hype for the market, and is expected to stimulate the demand for heating oil in winter.

Raw material price increases PTA production cost increases

After August this year, as domestic PTA downstream products began to gradually improve sales, domestic PTA demand increased, manufacturers started to expand, resulting in domestic imports PX and MX prices continued to rise. At the same time, the strong price of naphtha and the equipment parking inspection of several large PTA production enterprises between August and October are indispensable factors for the rising price of raw materials. As of November 1st, Asian PX reported 1234 US dollars / ton FOB Korea, heterogeneous MX reported 1011 US dollars / ton FOB Korea, PTA import cost was 8856 yuan / ton, import PX equivalent PTA production cost was 7703 yuan / ton, cost increased nearly 200 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. The price of Xiang Lu petrochemical in November was set at 8800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with October settlement. At present, not only the price of PTA and its raw materials has risen, but also the domestic PTA production start up rate has been maintained at over 80%.

Cotton price remains crazy and polyester price linkage rises.

The impact of rising cotton prices on PTA is mainly reflected in polyester. The sharp rise in cotton prices is mainly due to the low global cotton inventories, the decline in domestic cotton production and the delayed listing time, plus capital speculation. National cotton market monitoring showed that in early October, the national cotton industry inventory fell by nearly 9%, and textile enterprises preparing raw materials accounted for 77% of the total survey, an increase of 7 percentage points compared with the beginning of September, and cotton demand remained strong. Under the influence of output and inventory, the proportion of cotton in textile decreased, and the proportion of chemical fiber increased steadily, among which polyester was dominant and the proportion of cotton increased rapidly. The substitution effect of cotton was the most significant. At present, cotton prices are at a historically high level and there is no sign of slowing down in the upward trend. Downstream mills are faced with high cost pressures and have to look for cheaper alternatives. This leads to the rise of polyester prices in China, thereby indirectly supporting PTA price increases.

The peak of winter textile is coming. PTA downstream products enter the peak selling season.

Since September, domestic textile industry has entered a peak period, and the operating rate of cotton spinning and polyester spinning enterprises has greatly increased. As domestic cotton prices continue to record high, and the latter still continues to rush, textile enterprises are forced to shift their focus to polyester staple when they are forced to purchase high priced cotton. At present, the price of polyester staple fiber is approaching the historical high level. The profit of the enterprise is 2000 yuan per ton. Under the guidance of high profit, the load of the factory is higher, but the stock of polyester staple fiber is still low, and the market purchase is exuberant. Under the influence of inflation, domestic commodities rose overall, and cotton led the price of the whole textile industry chain. In view of this, there will still be room for textile products such as polyester and polyester.

　　 To sum up, the whole PTA industry chain is from upstream crude oil to downstream polyester polyester fabric. But it is worth noting that the price of PTA has risen to a sharp increase above the 9200 line, and the technical indicators have been passivated. Therefore, it is not easy to rush to a historical high price in the short term. It is suggested that investors should buy appropriately when the market is adjusted for PTA.