PTA Industry Chain Is Gathering Again And Again Hopefully To Go Up The Steps Again.

Upstream raw material trend strong support

In October, the PTA industry chain upstream raw materials prices collectively high, finishing at the end of the month.

Asian naphtha prices continued to rise, rising from US $707 at the end of September to US $763, rising by US $56. The price of naphtha will continue to be strong due to the low operating rate of the global refineries.

Mixed xylene (MX), which is overhauled by some Asian cracking units, forms a lot of benefits for downstream petrochemical products, and drives aromatics products to go up collectively.

In October, the price of MX rose from $904 to US $1011, rising by US $107.

PX has continued to rise due to installation problems, and from the next few months, China's PX supply has not improved significantly. In October, PX rose from $1034 to $1263, rising by 229 US dollars per ton.

At the beginning of October, due to the overhaul of many sets of equipment at home and abroad, the spot market was promoted, and although the recovery started, the demand for the downstream market was booming, the supply of contracted goods was tight, and the settlement price of the mainstream manufacturers contracted goods increased and the listing price increased.

In the mainstream of the market, the settlement price of PTA contracts in October was 8600 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan / ton compared with September settlement price.

At the same time, Yisheng Petrochemical introduced the PTA listing price to 8700 yuan / ton in November, up 500 yuan / ton compared to October.

Sinopec and Far East Petrochemical introduced the PTA listing price to 8800 yuan / ton in November, up 300 yuan / ton compared to October.

The high price of PTA contract execution and the high cost of PX raw material support the PTA price.

Two strong demand for downstream polyester factories is the main driving force for market continuity.

On the downstream market, the overall stock of pet products is at a historic low level (such as short fiber products are currently pre sold for 7-10 days). Pet factories are generally in the habit of locking raw materials in advance, and due to the higher overall load of polyester loading, the monthly output has reached 2 million tons. The demand for PTA has also risen to 1 million 700 thousand tons. The terminal textile industry is still in the peak season, and the downstream demand can still be maintained temporarily.

In contrast, supplier PTA inventory usually has a low level of 0-4 days.

Since mid September, PTA has been accelerating, which is enough to explain the strong demand for downstream and the strong digestion capacity.

At present, there is even a rare phenomenon in the market that PTA manufacturers purchase spot to fill the gap of supply contract goods.

From the existing polyester production capacity and future expansion, the polyester expansion boom starting in 2009 will last until 2012, and the new polyester production capacity will reach 6 million 590 thousand tons per year in 2010 alone. Meanwhile, the expansion rate of PTA will be relatively low, so the tight supply of PTA will continue.

With the continuous increase of new polyester production, the production load of polyester plant has increased from 75% a year last year to about 84%, which fully demonstrates the degree of downstream demand.

After the stock market at the end of October, the stock of polyester factories is generally low, and the supply of marketable specifications is tight.

Although the market feedback of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Fujian, Guangdong downstream circular machine's starting rate has dropped, but the main weaving base boot rate remains at a high level.

At present, the opening rate of Shengze loom looms is around 75%, and the rate of opening in the surrounding areas is maintained at 78%. The opening rate of warp knitting machines in Wujiang and Haining is 80%.

The market will continue to maintain a strong momentum until there is no significant change in supply and demand.

Textile industry, the China Textile Industry Association Statistics Center predicted that the fourth quarter of this year, China's textile industry profit growth will continue to fall.

However, at present, the market considers that the bad factors such as the rising price of raw materials and the appreciation of the renminbi have not gone beyond the scope of the enterprises in our country. Moreover, from the production characteristics of the garment processing industry, the order production cycle is longer, and the quantity of orders is constrained by the production capacity. Therefore, it is not necessary to worry about the garment industry in the coming months. At the same time, we must see that winter clothing production requires higher industry chain matching and workers' proficiency. At present, no country can form a relative advantage for us in the short term.

According to the author's visit to some garment enterprises, Vietnam is an example. The power supply is not stable, clothing accessories still need to be purchased domestically, and the workers are not proficient enough to meet the requirements of complex processing technology and order aging.

Three the impact of the US midterm elections and the conference on interest rates is unclear.

The US dollar weakened again and the Fed's further quantitative easing expectations supported the US dollar crude oil breaking US $80 mark in October and keeping it stable.

However, on November 2 and 3, the results of the US mid-term elections and the Fed's interest conference were highly uncertain, so the market is currently on the sidelines, and the US dollar index and crude oil maintain a narrow volatility market, waiting for the policy information to be clear.

Personally, it is believed that the outcome of the Fed's Conference on interest rates can not produce immediate results for the market. Although the expectation of quantitative easing has not yet become a reality, even if the Federal Reserve tries to enter the tightening cycle, policy pformation can not be completed overnight.

Waiting for the election and the conclusion of the meeting, the continuation of the oil dollar has great potential.

Overall, the US dollar continues to be weak, and the Fed's quantitative easing monetary policy keeps liquidity strong, which will support strong crude oil. Meanwhile, speculators may use the northern hemisphere's sudden cold weather to push up the price of crude oil. Although the continuous high oil stocks have suppressed oil prices, crude oil is still expected to take strong oscillation trend and the price will remain between 75 and 90 dollars / barrel interval.

Four trading strategies and recommendations

To sum up, at present, the PTA industry chain maintains high production load in all links, while the main circulation varieties are low in social inventory, which is enough to support the high price of all links. At the same time, the demand of textile industry drives the profit growth of the whole industry chain. With the passage of time and the distribution of sales profits in all links, the upstream supply will tighten up the PTA production cost and the price rise simultaneously in the two links. We expect that PTA is expected to continue upward trend.