CITIC Futures: PTA Morning Review November 5Th

　　 Overnight crude oil rose due to the Fed's decision financial market The injection of US $600 billion contributed to a new low of US dollar.

PTA closed on a daily basis, and the 1105 contract reached a record high, with its holdings increased by more than 60000. In terms of upstream raw materials, Asian PX prices rose by 12 US dollars to 1260 US dollars CFR Korea. Downstream production and marketing On the other hand, the production and marketing of polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are hot, and some factories do not sell them. Source of supply Tight, most factories produce and sell 100-150%, part of the higher is 200% or more.

Affected by the second round of quantitative easing, the US dollar will continue to fall to support commodities, and crude oil is expected to hit a new high in the near future. Against this background, PTA is expected to continue to grow.

Operation suggestion: more single follow up, stop loss 9500.

Supplement:

In November 4th, the leading agricultural products futures market continued to rally. The Zhengzhou commodity exchange cotton 1101 contract closed at 30525 yuan / ton, up 0.68% from the previous trading day. Cotton prices have risen sharply this year, compared with 15000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the cumulative increase has exceeded 100%.

The continuous rise of cotton has also boosted the price of PTA, the basic raw material of the textile industry. The PTA1105 contract of the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange closed at 9626 yuan / tonne this morning.

Hongyuan futures said that PTA spot trading was active, supply and demand were tight, and there was still upward space in the late stage. The Fed's policy statement further purchased $600 billion of long-term treasury bonds in line with expectations, and US crude oil rose 1.35 US dollars to 85.03 US dollars / barrel, which has a significant impact on PTA prices.

In October, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released the 2010/11 global cotton production and storage forecast report that the world's cotton production decreased by 60 thousand tons from the September forecast value, from 25 million 464 thousand tons to 25 million 404 thousand tons. Among them, China cut 218 thousand tons, from 7 million 76 thousand tons to 6 million 858 thousand tons. On the other hand, global cotton consumption has increased by 52 thousand tons from September to 26 million 294 thousand tons from 26 million 242 thousand tons. China's consumption rose 5.2% from 2009 to 10 million 886 thousand tons. The report predicts that global supply and demand will be subject to an imbalance crisis. The end of the world cotton inventory reduced to 9 million 724 thousand tons, the inventory consumption ratio fell to 37% low. China's supply and demand gap will reach 3 million 800 thousand tons, of which 73% will depend on imports.

China's cotton planting area has been decreasing year by year, and the cotton planting area in 2009 has decreased by more than 14 million mu compared with 2007. At the same time, the demand for cotton is gradually improving. Because of the rising cost of farming and the worry of inflation, cotton growers have strong desire for cotton and are very reluctant to sell. Speculative funds to hoard speculation, cotton prices soaring.

The rise in cotton prices has attracted the attention of the relevant departments. The seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of agriculture and the Ministry of Railways recently issued the joint notice on the acquisition of new cotton, which will regulate cotton prices by increasing the intensity of throwing and storing, guaranteeing the purchase funds, giving priority to the transport capacity, ensuring the supply of new cotton and cracking down on speculation.

　　 ICE cotton futures on Wednesday, due to strong Chinese cotton prices and tight supply, driven by speculative fund buying continued to rise, hitting a record high of 139.20 cents / pound.