Qiao Hong: China Will Continue To Maintain High GDP Growth Next Year.

"It is estimated that China's GDP will grow by 10.1% over the same period this year, and the GDP growth next year will still reach 10%." Executive director and senior director of Goldman Sachs Asia Economist Qiao Hong The inflationary pressure still exists.

In November 5th, Qiao Hong expressed the above views at the forum of China international capital market in 2010. She believes that China will continue to maintain next year. GDP high growth Conditions:

First, before 2009 China's economy The growth of external demand drives a large share. After the global financial crisis, the external purchasing power has been reduced on the basis of international factors, but at the same time, the contribution of domestic demand is increasing from the contribution to GDP. In this way, the impact of slower growth in external demand is offset by a gradual increase in investment and consumption demand.

Secondly, the proportion of domestic demand and external demand tends to be stable. Although the growth rate of external demand has dropped somewhat compared with that in 2003-2007 years, if it keeps at the present level of growth, coupled with continuously increasing domestic demand, it is likely to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate.

Third, the foreign trade market is becoming more and more diversified. In addition to the important markets such as the US, EU and Japan, the contribution of other countries and regions to China's export growth has also increased greatly.

Fourthly, from the point of view of the control and control of economic policies, although China's monetary environment is still relatively loose, there is a hidden worry. However, the Goldman's financial situation index has recently shown that the index is tightening, which is a good phenomenon. If such a tight policy continues, it can absorb the negative effects brought about by the loose monetary policy since 2009. Moreover, it is beneficial for China to maintain a tight financial situation when the global financial environment is relaxed.

Fifthly, the "12th Five-Year plan" has identified the key position of domestic demand. In terms of short-term policies, the growth of external demand is different from the previous changes in international environment. Domestic demand stimulation is the most important part of "12th Five-Year". But we should not only emphasize consumption, but also take into account consumption and investment.

Meanwhile, Qiao Hong also pointed out that inflationary pressures still exist. Although we now think that CPI will reach the highest point from October to November, there is still a certain risk. If the regulation is not enough this December to January next year, CPI growth may continue.