Bai Ming: Rising Cotton Prices Hurt Many Nerves In China'S Economy

As the name suggests, "cotton needle" means that there are hidden needles in cotton wool, and people are careful.

Domestic cotton prices this year

A series of factors will promote the price of cotton in the domestic market this year.

For example, according to a report released by the US Department of agriculture in early October this year, the global cotton gap is 890 thousand tons in 2010/2011.

The tight supply situation has made cotton prices on the international market continue to climb. Cotton futures prices in New York began to rise since late July, and the total increase has been nearly 70% so far.

It is not hard to see that part of the reason for the rise in domestic cotton prices this year is that the rising price of cotton in the international market has a conductive effect on the domestic market.

However, the international market factor is ultimately an external variable to drive domestic cotton prices to skyrocket. The decisive factor contributing to the soaring domestic cotton prices is the emergence of a series of endogenous variables. For example, the market downturn in 2008 led to the reduction of cotton planting area in China, and the climatic reasons led to the new cotton market listing postponed for some time this year, and the domestic cotton planting cost increased.

It should be admitted that although the emergence of the above endogenous variables and exogenous variables will increase domestic cotton prices, it is not enough to cause domestic cotton prices to Soar so sharply.

The reason for this is that the current surge in domestic cotton prices is largely due to some hoarding behavior of speculative capital.

According to the data released by the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, as of October 25th, cotton futures held a total of 487 thousand and 300 shares, compared with the same day two months ago, the total position increased by 70%, indicating that capital is flowing into the market.

No wonder, now that the central authorities are fighting a new policy to curb real estate prices at all times, they even need to levy "property tax" on the real estate market.

Obviously, the housing market can not be fried, and mung beans, ginger and other agricultural products are all hyped up. Those hot money that can not afford to stay idle should also look for the next hype target on cotton.

Moreover, the price rise of oil, coal, grain, edible oil, vegetables, sugar and many other means of production and living materials also reflects the demand of "price inflation" under the effect of price parity.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic cotton prices have continued to rise, especially in the cotton products market.

With the advent of "cotton needle", the price of cotton socks, cotton pajamas and cotton clothes just listed is red.

It is understood that the price of some domestic cotton clothing has increased from 10% to 20%.

Now it seems that for domestic cotton prices, although many rise, but the public reaction is not as strong as food prices rise.

The reason is that almost everyone thinks that "food is the food of the people" and the status of "wear" is ultimately difficult to match with "eating".

Once upon a time, food stamps and cloth tickets were necessary tickets for Chinese people to live.

However, the status of grain coupons in the age of planned economy seems to be stronger than that of cloth tickets.

Very simply, in the days when people suffered bitter days, the consequences of lack of cloth tickets were clothes breaking, people losing face, and the consequences of lacking food stamps were hungry.

And belly is much more important than face.

On the face of it, the problem of wearing warm is not very prominent compared with full food, but in fact, this is a mistake.

From the historical process of building a well-off society in China today, the relationship between eating and wearing should also keep pace with the times.

On the one hand, "eating" is not just a full stomach, but also a solution to good health.

On the other hand, "wear" is not simply a warm clothing, but also to solve the problem of beautiful appearance.

So it seems that there is no question of who is the heaven and who is the land.

From the perspective of making good use of the two markets at home and abroad, the sharp pain of soaring cotton prices on China's economy is not only reflected on the domestic consumption of the nerve, but also on the nerve of export trade.

China is the largest exporter of textiles and clothing in the world today.

Under the background of economic globalization, with the expansion of the scale of textile and clothing exports, China's demand for cotton will be more and more.

At present, the rise of cotton prices has threatened the development of China's textile export trade, making the relevant enterprises overburdened.

In cotton textile enterprises, cotton accounts for 60% to 70% of the cost. However, due to the continuous rise of cotton prices, the cost of production and operation of domestic textile and garment enterprises has expanded in the near future.

From the recent Canton Fair, we know that the rise in cotton prices has had an adverse effect on the export of textiles and garments.

As domestic exhibitors say, "cotton is a price per day".

Buyers have come a lot, but they are all hesitant.

The price of an enterprise newspaper is also an immediate price.

In the long run, what are the consequences? Unfortunately, the Chinese people, especially migrant workers in the coastal areas.

It should be noted that the textile and garment industry is one of the areas where China has the most employed labor force at this stage.

If the scale of textile and clothing exports has shrunk due to soaring cotton prices, many domestic migrant workers' jobs will become a problem.

It can be imagined that without the rice bowl, it is impossible to achieve "food for the people".

In this sense, the soaring price of cotton in China seems to be irrelevant to the basic life of the people this year, but in fact it is very important.

Faced with this "acupuncture needle" that stings China's economy, the country is indeed on guard, and has adopted a series of coping strategies, but the effect is still limited.

It is understood that in the past few days, when the state produced 15 thousand tons of cotton auction every day, and constantly increased imports of cotton and Xinjiang cotton into the mainland, the "needle in the needle" is still showing its strength.

The rise in cotton prices is not only a nerve in the Chinese economy, but a lot of nerves in the Chinese economy. The relevant departments should pay attention to the rise in cotton prices as concerns about the rise in grain prices.