Behind The Soaring Cotton Prices: The Three Game Of Cotton Farmers' Textile Enterprises

Cotton prices go up.

According to Yu Xiuzhi, Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, Dezhou is one of the key cotton producing areas in China, and its annual cotton planting area is 200-300 mu.

But this year, the cotton field area is only 1 million 550 thousand mu, 32% less than the previous year. It is the least cotton planting area in the past 11 years.

In the middle and August of last year, a continuous large range of high intensity rainfall and cloudy weather occurred in the region, which had a great impact on cotton yield and quality. The average yield per seed cotton was only about 210 kg, which was more than 20% lower than that in the normal year.

This year

Although cotton production in Dezhou has been greatly reduced this year, cotton production has not been reduced due to a record high cotton price.

According to the average yield of 210 kilograms per mu and the average selling price of 12.20 yuan / kg, the output value of Mu is 2562 yuan, and the direct cost of planting is 393 yuan / mu (excluding labor cost, the cost of land package and the cost of picking up cotton), plus 15 yuan per mu of good seed subsidy, 2184 yuan of mu income, more than 625 yuan of grain per mu, which has completely changed the situation that cotton is not as good as grain yield in recent years.

Increase in supply and demand to boost cotton prices

"Cotton production is decreasing and demand is increasing, and the imbalance between production and demand has led to a surge in cotton prices."

Liu Guizhou, deputy general manager of Dezhou silver dragon group, analyzed the reasons for the rise in cotton prices this year.

Liu Guizhou told reporters that since last October, China's textile industry began to recover, cotton demand increased substantially, and this year's cotton output has not increased, and there has been a big gap between cotton production and demand, resulting in panic psychology, which has contributed to the rise in cotton prices.

China is the largest cotton producer in the world. In recent years, the total output of cotton has been maintained at around 7 million tons, and the demand is about 10 million 500 thousand tons.

The China Cotton Association predicts that the total output of cotton will be 6 million 640 thousand tons this year, and the gap between production and demand will be nearly 4 million tons.

Dezhou is a traditional cotton producing area. Due to the low benefit of cotton planting in recent years, the enthusiasm of farmers to plant cotton has decreased, and the area has decreased year by year. In 2008, the cotton field area in the whole city was 2 million 890 thousand mu, and 2 million 300 thousand mu in 2009, only 1 million 550 thousand mu this year, and this year suffered waterlogging again. The yield per unit area decreased sharply, and the total output of lint cotton in the city was only 120 thousand tons, about half of the normal year.

The annual cotton consumption of the city is about 500 thousand tons and needs to be purchased from abroad.

On the one hand, the annual reduction of area and production. On the other hand, after the financial crisis, the textile industry began to recover, and the demand for cotton increased day by day, and the gap between supply and demand increased, resulting in cotton prices continuing to rise.

Output is difficult to rise and cotton prices will run high.

At present, such a high cotton price is temporary or will be maintained for a long time? Industry experts believe that China's low cotton price era is coming to an end, and cotton prices will remain at a high price for a long time.

The comparative efficiency of cotton planting and the diversification of farmers' way of making money have made farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton less and less.

Even if the cotton price of 2009 reached the highest historical price of 8 yuan per kilogram, Dezhou's cotton planting area increased by 32% instead of 32% this year. The cotton price now reaches more than 12 yuan per kilogram. According to the investigation, the cotton planting area will not increase much next year.

Xinjiang is the largest cotton producing area in the country, and its output accounts for about 1/3 of the whole country. In recent years, due to the rising cost of picking flowers, the cost of cotton planting has increased and the efficiency has decreased.

As far as the whole country is concerned, the total output of cotton can be maintained at around 7 million tons in the next few years or even many years.

That is to say, the annual import of about 3000000 tons (about 8 million tonnes of world cotton trade) can achieve a general balance between production and demand, and China's large import will inevitably lead to the rise of international cotton prices.

Accordingly, cotton prices will be running high in the next few years.

The pressure on the downstream industry is too high, cotton prices continue to rise, the space is limited.

Cotton prices continue to rise, the chain of cotton industry chain reaction is different, and showing no wonder for many years: cotton farmers reluctant to sell high prices, unwilling to sell; cotton enterprises believe that the risk is too large, unwilling to accept; textile enterprises too high cotton prices, unwilling to buy.

Cotton prices are high. Cotton growers are very happy. After half a year's hard work, they are not involved. Although cotton production is reduced this year, the price is more than doubled.

Farmers have a habit of buying, buying, selling, selling or selling. The higher the price of cotton, the more reluctant the cotton farmers are to sell, hoping that the price will be higher.

Although local cotton picking is coming to an end, the average household turnover is less than 20%, which is significantly lower than in previous years.

It should be said that cotton prices should go up, and cotton purchasing and processing enterprises should be happy, but in fact, they are walking on steel wires.

Wang Zigui, general manager of Wujiang county's Silver River cotton industry Co., Ltd. complained: "because of the reduction in cotton production and the small amount of resources this year, the acquisition and processing enterprises are competing to buy up, and the purchase price of seed cotton has been on the high side. With the increase and sale, it will lose 400-500 yuan / ton, and the price of the purchase and sale will hang upside down."

Most cotton companies purchase funds from social fund-raising or commercial bank loans, with a monthly interest rate of about 1 cents, and the monthly interest rate is only 250 yuan per ton.

The acquisition processing enterprises take great risks and trembling with fear. If the lint cotton market is flat or down, cotton enterprises will suffer serious losses.

In 2003, cotton prices were rising and falling and some cotton enterprises suffered heavy losses.

Fortunately, the price of lint has continued to rise since the launch of the new cotton market this year. It has risen from 18300 yuan / ton in the early September to about 27000 yuan per ton.

The initial acquisitions were not sold, and the profits were considerable.

According to the Dezhou Cotton Association survey, there are more than 300 cotton processing enterprises (400 of which are 85 packaged models). At present, there are more than 150 involved in the purchase. Some enterprises are not willing to scale up the purchase because of the high price and the high risk.

In recent years, cotton prices have gone up astonishingly and far too high. The acquisition and processing enterprises are in a panic. They believe that the risk is too high, and the pressure of capital increases. Some enterprises have stopped waiting and waiting.