Cotton Prices Fly All Over The Sky &Nbsp; Provoke "Fire" Polyester Staple Fiber.

Two sources of supply are tight and cotton prices are high.

China Cotton Association report shows that because of the decline in cotton planting area in recent three years, it is estimated that the total output of cotton will only be 6 million 700 thousand tons this year.

According to the USDA's October report, China's cotton supply gap reached about 4 million tons this year, a record high.

Affected by this, the average purchase price of seed cotton in September this year was 9.46 yuan / kg, up 3.51 yuan / kg compared with the average price in September last year, an increase of 58.99% over the same period last year.

In October, the purchase price of seed cotton rose to around 12.6 yuan per kilogram in October, and the cost of lint was over 27000 yuan / ton.

At present, spot cotton and cotton yarn prices have maintained an upward trend.

In November 2nd, a large textile group in Shandong once again raised the purchase price of lint. The 3 level price was 28500 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of October, and the high price in the spot market continued to support the high price of cotton during the period.

When domestic production can not meet the needs, the supply of cotton needs more imports to make up for it, but the resources for China's imports are very limited.

New lake futures said that US and India could import about 1 million 400 thousand tons of cotton to China.

According to China's Cotton Import Statistics in the first two years, cotton imports from the United States and India account for 65%~70% of China's cotton imports.

It is estimated that the amount of cotton resources that can be imported into China this year is about 2 million ~215 tons, which is far from our domestic supply gap this year.

It is understood that the proportion of cotton, polyester and viscose used in three kinds of cotton spinning raw materials in China is about 50:35:10, and other raw materials account for about 5%. These three kinds of raw materials compete and replace each other.

Polyester staple fiber and cotton can be blended, becoming the most direct beneficiaries of cotton prices.

The high price of cotton will not only greatly increase the use of polyester staple fiber, but will also drive up its price.

In the first half of this year, the price of PET staple has been in the range of fluctuation. From the beginning of September to the end of the year, the price remained at 10 thousand yuan / ton.

Affected by downstream demand growth and export recovery, the polyester fiber industry has been booming since the three quarter.

At present, the price of PET staple has risen to 13 thousand yuan / ton.

The price difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber has been extended to ten thousand yuan, and from a historical point of view, the normal price difference should be 3000~4000 yuan / ton.

Such a huge price difference, far from normal, means that the amount of polyester staple fiber instead of cotton will gradually increase.

Polyester raw materials supply loose profits rise

Another driving force for polyester staple fiber to keep rising is the whole industrial chain of polyester is in the boom cycle.

Px, PTA and ethylene glycol upstream raw materials of polyester staple fiber will be released rapidly in the next 2~3 years, and domestic supply will gradually become loose.

At present, crude oil prices are unlikely to soared in the short term, so the PTA price of the staple raw materials of polyester staple fiber does not increase greatly.

The low profit of the downstream polyester industry for nearly ten years has suppressed the input of new funds. PET staple fiber has been widely reported in recent years. Due to the loss in the first half of the year and the demand for energy conservation and emission reduction, some factories have switched production or limited production, resulting in a relatively small supply.

At present, the best operating rate of the polyester fiber staple industry has reached 80%, and there is little room for further improvement.

To sum up, on the one hand, the price of polyester staple fiber instead of cotton will remain strong before the next cotton harvest, so as to form strong support for polyester staple fiber. On the other hand, the supply of upstream raw materials of polyester staple fiber will remain stable throughout the next 3 years, and it is expected that the polyester staple fiber will remain high in the next two to two years.

It is recommended to pay attention to:

Huaxi Village: the main production enterprise of polyester staple fiber in China, the company's performance elasticity is the largest in the related chemical fiber listed companies.

Xia Ke environmental protection: the black horse of polyester staple industry, the leading product color polyester staple fiber price difference advantage is obvious.

S Yihua: the longest and most complete listed company in polyester polyester staple industry chain.

It is also the enterprise with the least profit elasticity and the most stable performance.

Xinmin Technology: the main difference fiber polyester filament. Because differential fiber polyester filament has the advantage of replacing cotton in the textile industry, the demand for differential fiber polyester filament is particularly strong in downstream industries after the continuous rise in cotton prices.