Inquiring About "Crazy" Cotton

　　 According to Yu Xiuzhi, Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, the city is a national priority. Cotton producing area One year, cotton planting area is 200-300 mu. But this year, the cotton field area is only 1 million 550 thousand mu, 32% less than the previous year, the smallest area in nearly 11 years. In the middle and August of August, a continuous high intensity rainfall and cloudy weather occurred in the city, which had a great impact on cotton yield and quality. Unginned cotton The average yield per mu is only about 200 kg, which is reduced by more than 20% over the normal year.

Affected by factors such as domestic cotton production and demand increase, the purchase price of seed cotton has soared this year. Almost every day a price can be described by "Crazy". When the takeover started in early September, the purchase price of seed cotton was around 8.40 yuan / kg, then continued to rise, rising to an average of 10.4 yuan / kg at the end of September. After the national day, it continued to rise, reaching 14.20 yuan / kg in November 8th, rising 69% in two months, and 97% higher than the same period last year. The sale price of lint rose from 18300 yuan / ton in early September to 31500 yuan per ton, or 72%, a record high.

Although cotton production in Dezhou has been greatly reduced this year, cotton production has not been reduced due to a record high cotton price. The average output per mu is 200 kilograms and the average selling price is 13.80 yuan / kg. The output value of Mu is 2760 yuan, and the direct cost of planting is 393 yuan / mu (excluding labor cost, the cost of land package and the cost of picking up cotton), plus 15 yuan per mu of good seed subsidy, and 2382 yuan of mu income, which is more than 823 yuan per mu.

Supply and demand gap, hot money speculation, boosting cotton prices

"Cotton production is decreasing and demand is increasing, and the imbalance between production and demand has led to a surge in cotton prices." Liu Guizhou, deputy general manager of Dezhou silver dragon group, analyzed the reasons for the rise in cotton prices this year.

Liu Guizhou introduced that since last October, China Textile industry The demand for cotton has increased significantly since the beginning of the recovery. Cotton output has not increased this year, but there has been a big gap between cotton production and demand, resulting in a panic mentality. This has contributed to the rise in cotton prices.

According to reports, China is the largest cotton producer in the world. In recent years, the total output of cotton in China has been maintained at around 7 million tons, and the demand is about 10 million 500 thousand tons, with a gap of more than 3 million 500 thousand tons. Our city is a traditional cotton producing area. Due to the low benefit of cotton planting in recent years, the area has been decreasing year by year. In 2008, the cotton field area in the whole city was 2 million 890 thousand mu, and in 2009 it was 2 million 300 thousand mu, only 1 million 550 thousand Mu this year. And this year, it suffered waterlogging. The yield per unit area decreased sharply. The total cotton lint in the city was only 120 thousand tons, about half of the normal year. The annual cotton consumption of the city is about 500 thousand tons and needs to be purchased from abroad.

On the one hand, the annual reduction of area and production. On the other hand, after the financial crisis, the textile industry began to recover, and the demand for cotton increased day by day, the gap increased, and cotton prices continued to rise.

In response to soaring cotton prices and stabilizing market prices, the state began selling cotton reserves in early August this year, dumping 600 thousand tons in two months. In September 28th, the state continued to increase 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves, and it still had no results. Cotton prices continued to rise all the way and hit record highs.

China is the largest cotton consuming country and textile exporter in the world. Due to the reduction of domestic cotton production and the need for large imports, the global cotton prices have been promoted. It is understood that in recent months, the international cotton prices have also reached new heights. From the end of 7 to the beginning of October, international cotton prices have risen by nearly 50% and hit 15 year highs. Cotton futures in New York have been increasing again and again, rising to 142.23 cents / pound in November 5th, the highest level since 1861.

Yu Xiuzhi analysis believes that in addition to the larger gap between supply and demand, the opportunity for speculation is also another tool to increase cotton prices.

Cotton prices continue to rise, downstream difficult to bear

Cotton prices continue to rise, the chain of cotton industry chain reaction is different, and showing no wonder for many years: cotton farmers reluctant to sell high prices, unwilling to sell; cotton enterprises believe that the risk is too large, unwilling to accept; textile enterprises too high cotton prices, unwilling to buy.

Cotton prices are high. Cotton growers are very happy. Although cotton production is reduced, the price is more than doubled. Farmers have a habit of selling but not selling. At present, the cotton farmers in our city have sold less than 20%, and some farmers have kept tens of thousands of pounds in their homes.

It should be said that cotton prices should go up, and cotton purchasing and processing enterprises should be happy, but in fact, they are walking on steel wires. Wang Zigui, general manager of Wujiang county's Silver River cotton industry Co., Ltd. complained: "because of the reduction in cotton production and the small amount of resources this year, the acquisition and processing enterprises are competing to buy up, and the purchase price of seed cotton has been on the high side. With the increase and sale, it will lose 400-500 yuan / ton, and the price of the purchase and sale will hang upside down." Most cotton companies purchase funds from social fund-raising or commercial bank loans, with a monthly interest rate of about 1 cents, and the monthly interest rate is only 300 yuan per ton.

In 2003, cotton prices were rising and falling and some cotton enterprises suffered heavy losses. Fortunately, the price of lint has continued to rise since the launch of the new cotton market this year. It has risen from 18300 yuan / ton in the early September to the current 31500 yuan / ton. The initial acquisitions were not sold, and the profits were considerable.

According to the City Cotton Association survey, there are more than 300 cotton processing enterprises in our city (400 of which are 85 packaged models). At present, there are more than 150 enterprises involved in the purchase. Some enterprises are not willing to scale up the purchase because they are too expensive and too risky. In recent years, cotton prices have gone up astonishingly and far too high. The acquisition and processing enterprises are in a panic. They believe that the risk is too high, and the pressure of capital increases. Some enterprises have stopped waiting and waiting.

The downstream of cotton processing is spinning, weaving and clothing industries. It is understood that cotton prices to downstream industries conduction lag period, the current downstream industry prices are not up to cotton prices increase. According to people concerned, the transmission effect of the rising cotton has not been fully reflected at present, because many garments on the market are now produced before the cotton price rises, and the upstream price rises have not yet been completely released to the downstream. The rise of cotton prices has brought great pressure to the enterprises such as spinning and clothing, and even will affect the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Last October to August this year, it should be said that the textile industry has had the best time in the past 10 years. Cotton prices have risen in recent years, and cotton yarn prices have also risen steadily, but the rate of increase is not up to the increase in cotton prices. Taking the sales price of 32 pure cotton yarns as an example, it has risen from 26200 yuan / ton to 37000 yuan / ton in the past two months, or 41%, much lower than the 72% increase in lint price. This means that the spinning enterprises should digest some of the price increase factors and compress the profit margins accordingly.

It is understood that at present, most of the raw materials used by spinning mills in our city are early purchase and recent auction of national cotton stores, with relatively low prices and profit margins. At present, the price of cotton is surprisingly high, and the textile enterprises are unable to bear it. The enterprises dare not take up the large and medium-sized bills in the medium and long term. They can only take flexible orders, mainly with short lists, small bills and quick orders.

The cotton price has been transmitted to the downstream garment industry, which has raised the survival cost of garment enterprises. But in the export trade, they dare not raise the price, and the profit space has been greatly reduced. Similarly, the printing and dyeing weaving enterprises are under the dual pressure of upstream and downstream prices, and have become the "victims" of high cotton prices. Analysis of the industry, the cotton industry downstream capacity is approaching the upper limit, cotton prices continue to rise in space and height will be very limited.

Output will not increase, and high prices will continue.

At present, such a high cotton price is temporary or will be maintained for a long time? Industry experts believe that China's low cotton price era is coming to an end, and cotton prices will remain at a high price for a long time. This is because:

First, although the yield of cotton seed is slightly higher than that of grain crops this year, it is lower than other economic crops such as capsicum, vegetables and so on, and farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting is not high.

Second, the rate of mechanization of seed cotton is low, time consuming and labor consuming.

Third, cotton subsidies are less. Grain crops are subsidized by improved varieties, grain subsidies and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural products, which are close to 100 yuan per mu, and only 15 yuan per mu.

The comparative efficiency of cotton planting and the diversification of farmers' way of making money have made farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton less and less. Even if the cotton price of 2009 reached the highest historical price of 8 yuan per kilogram, the cotton planting area in this city did not rise or fall by 32% this year. At present, the cotton price reaches more than 13 yuan per kilogram, and the area of cotton planting next year will not increase much.

Xinjiang is the largest cotton producing area in the country, and its output accounts for about 1/3 of the whole country. In recent years, due to the rising cost of picking flowers, the cost of cotton planting has increased and the efficiency has decreased. As far as the whole country is concerned, cotton production will be maintained at 7 million tons in the next few years or even years. That is to say, the annual import of about 3000000 tons (about 8 million tonnes of world cotton trade) can achieve a general balance between production and demand, and China's large import will inevitably lead to the rise of international cotton prices. Accordingly, cotton prices will be running high in the next few years.

The way out for spinning enterprises is to adjust the structure.

According to Chen Tingbing, deputy director of Dezhou textile industry management office, our city is an important textile base of the whole country and the whole province. There are more than 240 cotton textile enterprises, 4 million 500 thousand spindles of spinning capacity, 500 thousand tons of cotton per year, and the cotton self sufficiency rate is only about 25%.

In the face of the soaring cotton prices, Chen Tingbing said that although the pressure of cotton price rise can be transferred to some parts of the downstream industries such as weaving and clothing, but to a large extent, the profit margins of textile enterprises have been reduced. At present, the high cotton price of more than 31000 yuan / ton is difficult for enterprises to accept.

In view of the current high cotton price, some textile enterprises in our city have intensified the development of new products, and adopted non cotton fibers to resolve the impact of high priced cotton. Dezhou Huayuan technology, Lingxian County Hengfeng textile, Lingxian County Baoding textile and other enterprises have increased the application and new products development of new fibers such as Tencel, modal, milk fiber, bamboo fiber, corn fiber, soybean fiber and cashmere, fox hair, silk and other animal fibers. The market prospect is good and the economic benefit is considerable.

　　 With the advent of the high cotton price era, the future of textile enterprises is not easy. Industry experts suggested that we should speed up the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the textile industry, eliminate backward production capacity, raise product grades and increase economic returns. At the same time, we should learn to hedge futures market and avoid price risk.