PTA Value Revaluation &Nbsp; Medium Term Target 13000 Yuan.

Capital drives commodity prices up.

The current round of national regulation of the property market has lasted longer, and some of the funds have entered the stock market and the commodity market.

Since the financial crisis, countries have started printing money machines, and the money supply has surged, pushing up asset prices globally, globally.

High cotton prices, lower production and sales price, PTA value revaluation.

Cotton prices are currently close to 33000 yuan high, the difference between staple and cotton is still maintained at more than 13000 yuan, to stimulate the cotton mill to buy staple fiber enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the ratio of cotton to PTA has reached a record high.

Since November, polyester polyester, viscose, cotton, yarn market continues to rise, polyester filament, short fiber prices are three times a day in a day to increase the price of products.

The price increase of downstream products is much higher than that of raw materials, and PTA has risen by 2500 yuan since November.

However, the increase from filament to staple fiber to slicing is more than 4 thousand yuan, and the growth of staple fiber is even as high as 6200 yuan / ton.

The author believes that this is an important factor in supporting the PTA price in the medium and long term.

Even if downstream demand falls into the off-season, the price of polyester will remain high and volatile because of high cotton prices.

Therefore, the acceleration of PTA price rises is relatively reasonable.

Upstream and downstream industry investment mismatch, resulting in PTA production capacity is tight.

Since October, affected by Shanghai petrochemical, Ningbo Taiwan and Dalian Yisheng plant maintenance, the domestic PTA operating rate has dropped from 90% to 76%.

At the same time, South Korea's three South, Samsung, KP and Indonesia's MITSUBISHI and Taiwan East Exhibition are also being overhauled. This makes the supply of PTA spot field in Asia more tense later, thus supporting the formation of PTA futures prices.

The upstream and downstream capacity investment cycle is misplaced, and the market is expecting too much of the supply and demand in the coming period, which has led to a sharp rise in the PTA market in the short term.

The polyester industry has entered a centralized production cycle since the second half of 2010 to the next two or three years. In 2010 and 2011, the new capacity of the polyester ester was about 12 million tons.

The main station cycle of PTA concentrates mainly around 2012.

In the short term, the mismatch of upstream and downstream capacity leads to a relatively balanced pattern of supply and demand in raw material links after entering 2010.

With the subsequent commissioning of the new polyester plant, the demand for PTA contract goods and spot continues to rise, making the market anticipate good supply and demand for PTA in the next period of time, and also boosting the recent surge in PTA.

Crude oil is strong, PX jumps sharply, and promotes PTA cost support.

The price of PX has rebounded rapidly since the end of August, and has reached a high level of more than 1357 US dollars per ton.

In the first half of this year, PX manufacturers suffered serious losses. PX manufacturers were forced to reduce their operating rates. When the peak period of polyester consumption in China was over, the supply and demand surplus turned to supply shortage, and the split price spread rose sharply, from the -30 dollar / ton in early August to the current 200 US dollars / ton.

After the mid-term elections in the United States, the opening up of the oil price increases provides a psychological basis for PX to continue to strengthen.

With PTA futures trading for four consecutive trading days, the short-term spot market profit market has met demand, and the downstream weaving procurement has been cautious. From a macro perspective, the two rate hike in the year has also started to warm up. In the short term, the probability of PTA market adjustment or high position adjustment will also increase.

PTA futures are experiencing the process of value revaluation under the role of capital push, demand driven and cost push up, and the price of downstream market is rising. The PTA price will be close to the intermediate target of 13000 yuan.