The Central Bank Announced An Increase In The Deposit Reserve Ratio Of &Nbsp; It Is Expected That Interest Rates Will Be Increased Again During The Year.

　　 Central Bank Announce up Deposit reserve ratio Then, on the 11 th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's C PI grew by 4.4% compared to the same period last year, the highest level in nearly 25 months. However, the CPI increase of more than 3% warning lines for 4 consecutive months undoubtedly indicates that China's future inflation situation is very grim. Expert analysis pointed out that the current Price rise The problem has become the primary issue of macroeconomic regulation. It is likely that interest rates will be increased at least once a year.

Data show that China's C PI rose 0.8 percentage points over September in October. For the sharp rise in C PI, the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun said that the new price increase contributed 3 percentage points to C PI's rise of 4.4% over the same period, which is the main driver of the price increase. In the new price increase factor, the most important is the rise of food prices and residential prices. In October, food prices rose by 10.1%, contributing 74% to C PI, and living class prices by 4.9%, contributing 16.6% to CPI.

The sharp rise in C PI in October is likely to indicate that inflation pressures will increase significantly next year. Lu Zhiming, a researcher at the bank's financial research center, told the economic reference daily that although CPI may slow down in the following two months, due to various factors, the inflationary pressures in the future, such as the overflowing of international currency and short term domestic liquidity, the rising food prices, the high labor costs and the import of commodities, will still exist for a long time. Coupled with the lower base effect at the beginning of this year, prices may rise again after the fall from the end of the year to the beginning of 2011.

An obvious sign is that, according to Sheng Laiyun, in fact, the non food prices in China began to rise in October.

"C PI has been ahead of the target of 3% in the beginning of the year, so effective control of inflation has become the number one policy objective compared with the previous months." Hu Chi, deputy director of the China Federation of enterprise research, told the economic reference daily that "in such a severe situation, the possibility of raising interest rates again is undoubtedly greatly increased. In fact, central bank officials have suggested raising interest rates again. "

It is not only Hu Chi who is going to increase interest again in the year. Sun Junwei, a macroeconomic analyst at HSBC China, told the economic reference daily that the CPI growth in October exceeded the expectations of the market. The inflation risk increased significantly, and it will become the main focus of macroeconomic regulation in the near future. In order to better manage inflation expectations and curb domestic asset bubbles, the central bank needs to continue tightening through a combination of fists, and reserves and interest rates are still viable policy tools in the coming months. If C PI continues to rise in November, there should be a 25 basis point interest rate increase in the year.

Dong Xianan, chief macroeconomic analyst at Xingye securities, also told the economic reference Daily: "domestic demand is obviously fast. At the end of the year, inflation expectations are more intense than before. The recent monetary policy will strongly suppress inflation expectations which are not convergent. We strongly urge investors to deal with the policy of nominal interest rate adjustment again, which is almost certain. Moreover, from 7-10 month's monetary and credit data, it is justifiable to relax the credit policy moderately in order to keep the economy from falling rapidly in the 3 quarter. However, in recent years, bank credit has been increasingly indulgent. Under the strong background of domestic and foreign demand, the rationality of the nominal interest rate and the reserve rate has increased substantially.

Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, also predicted that there will be 1 increases in interest rates and 1 increase in the deposit reserve ratio during the year. "Strong credit and stable industrial value added make the macro authorities almost no longer worry about inflation control. When inflation has become the first task in the coming year, we expect that interest rates will rise frequently, and from now until the end of 2011, it is likely that interest rates will rise by 5-6 times. He told the economic reference Daily reporter.