Global Commodity Innovation Is High &Nbsp; Cotton Is The Most Expensive In More Than 140 Years.

Supplement:

The market in November is doomed to be extraordinary. The price has skyrocketed by 8000 yuan in just ten days. This remarkable achievement also shows the good momentum of all cotton yarn express.

However, in the face of higher and higher cotton yarn prices, the response of downstream businesses is painful. The only way to deal with this is to cut production and stop production.

On the 11 day, cotton, which has been on the rise for many consecutive days, came unexpectedly to a limit. This diving boom also brought a great shock to the cotton yarn market.

Once thought that the cotton's defense line was indestructible, once thought that the cotton barrier could not be broken, but in a short span of days, from soaring to falling, the whole cotton yarn enterprise experienced ups and downs that ordinary people could not imagine.

Now that the cotton is plummeting, is the whole cotton yarn enterprise in a dilemma? Is it going to go up or follow the wind? Is it going to store up the goods or to reduce it?

First, the price of cotton has plummeted, and cotton has been shipped in large quantities.

That is, the current limit, and the policy regulation is being effective. The central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate for the fourth time this year. The continuous high CPI data has also increased the possibility of raising interest rates. This has also caused the cotton futures market to be cold. In addition, Wei Qiao has lowered the price of the cotton lint to a spoonful of cold water. On the 11 day, Shandong Wei Qiao lowered the cotton purchase price tentatively by 200 yuan, and the purchase price of the 3 grade lint was 31300 yuan / ton, and the 4 grade was 31000 yuan / ton. Then, on the 12 day, Wei Qiao lowered its purchase price of the cotton seed again by 500 yuan, of which the acquisition price of 3 grade lint was up to 3 yuan / ton, and the acquisition price of the grade lint was up to RMB yuan / ton. Affected by the 10 day US cotton price slump, today's cotton futures opened.

When prices fall, cotton is coming out, many traders and cotton processors are somewhat uncertain about the market outlook, but shipping is their only thought. Whether it is for profit escaping or the real bearish market, a large number of shipments have already begun.

Two, the whole cotton yarn profit is better, and some factory profits exceed 10000.

Since the beginning of October 20th, the price of cotton yarn has been increasing day by day, and the price of cotton yarn has been rising continuously.

By the end of November 10th, the mainstream price of the 32S combed high distribution market was 46000 yuan / ton, and the 32S combed ribbon ticket was quoted at 48000 yuan / ton, and the 40S combed price was 48000 yuan / ton, 40S combed yarn to 50000 yuan / ton, up 12000 yuan / ton compared with the same period in October, or about 35%.

However, judging from the cost of cotton yarn production, according to the current 3 grade cotton price of 31500 yuan / ton, plus 20% loss (combed noil count) and 6000 yuan / ton processing fee, the cost price of 32S cotton combed yarn is 44000 yuan / ton, while the current mainstream market quotation is more than 48000 yuan / ton, and the huge profit of 4000 yuan has entered the waist of the cotton yarn enterprise.

In addition, some cotton hoarding manufacturers still use about 20000 yuan of cotton, and part of the cotton coming to the port at the end of July is set in July, when the price is less than 20000 yuan. According to this price, the profit of the whole cotton yarn is close to 20000 yuan, and the profit margin is about 70%.

Three is the high price of cotton yarn brings higher risk, downstream textile mills stop production increase.

In the face of the high price of all cotton yarn, the downstream textile and garment enterprises shouted "no way to eat". Many small factories in Shandong have reduced the number of starting machines and reduced the start-up rate. According to a textile enterprise, the new orders in November dropped by about 60% from the previous month. He estimates that if cotton yarn prices continue to rise, more enterprises will be added to the "stop production" array in the lower reaches.

In addition, the high price cotton yarn also brings higher risk pressure, many outside the single sheet also greatly shrink, reduce quotation or simply do not offer, downstream resistance is also the biggest enemy of all cotton yarn rising.

The four is that middlemen store more goods and lower prices.

We often hear cotton mills complain about "no goods". We often hear the news that the downstream textile enterprises have to suspend their orders. So where are the yarns? A middleman's answer gives the answer. Traders are hoarding.

He said, in order not to break the file, in order to provide customers with timely stock, and traders collectively watch cotton yarn are prepared for hoarding yarn, many trading companies have less than a few hundred tons, more than 1000 tons of cotton yarn inventory.

Moreover, the rising cotton yarn market has spawned more cotton yarn trading companies, and the flow of cotton yarn has been controlled by many trading companies.

According to a trader, the mainstream market of 32S combs and all cotton yarn is priced at 45000-46000 yuan / ton, but the paction price given by traders is only around 43000 yuan / ton. This is the result of hoarding, and of course, because of low price is the basis for traders to survive.

The five is the continued appreciation of the renminbi. The external export market is seriously hindered. The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced on Thursday that the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market in November 11th was RMB 1 yuan to 6.6242 yuan, which was significantly lower than the 6.6450 of Wednesday's 208 basis points and brushed the new high since the new exchange reform.

The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will continue to rise in the short term due to the expected increase in interest rates and the sharp rise in the trade surplus in October.

The appreciation of RMB has exacerbated the price of textile exports and reduced the competitiveness of products. The rising prices of all kinds of raw materials have also greatly restricted the export of textile and clothing, and the export of single exports has been seriously hampered.

According to an importer and exporter in Shaoxing, the whole cotton yarn price has been rising rapidly and greatly, the company has suspended all kinds of cotton and cotton interwoven products export trade.

For the future trend of all cotton yarn, the high price is still fundamental. However, the pressure of RMB appreciation is constantly increasing. The national regulation and control measures are constantly being introduced. The rate of increase in interest rate is expected to rise, and cotton prices are expected to restore stability. In addition, with the price of cotton yarn rising again and again, the downstream catch up is gradually scarce, and the whole cotton yarn "fear of high" mentality is beginning to breed, and the market outlook should not be too high.