Four State-Owned Commercial Banks Have Stopped Lending To Developers.

The reporter confirmed from many channels that China, agriculture, industry and construction occupy most of the credit market.

In November 7th, the head of the credit and approval department of the head office of ICBC told our correspondent that ICBC had completed the credit task for the whole year, and many branches including Beijing branch stopped issuing new development loans.

Similar statements have been confirmed from the insiders of China bank, China Construction Bank and ABC.

The Credit Department of the business department of the head office of the Bank of China is more direct: "the development loans of the general branches have been launched earlier, and the target for the whole year has been completed in the three quarter."

A person from the national life Asset Management Co also confirmed the situation: "our survey of the four major banks found that the new development loans basically ceased in October."

"At present, we are carrying out the annual summary. It is impossible to add the new year. The replacement space of the stock credit assets is also limited. Moreover, the four major banks have more tasks to cooperate with the regulation and control.

In the view of ICBC heads, tightening the belt is the only way for developers before the new quota comes in 2011.

The worse news is still behind.

In November 10th, the central bank decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio again by 0.5 percentage points.

With the goal of "12th Five-Year" to protect the people's livelihood and adjust the structure, the intention of the regulation layer to prevent inflation and the return of monetary policy to normalization has been very obvious.

Under predictable market supervision, even if developers survive this year's credit window, the credit environment in 2011 will not be better than this year, or even worse.

"Anti inflation measures will be strengthened and real estate regulation will continue. It is estimated that next year's real estate credit supply will be reduced by 20%."

The above ICBC Credit Officer predicted.

Developing grain for loans

As early as the end of August, ABC had issued notice to all branches to suspend development loans.

At the same time, the bank also issued the approval of the Bank of China, China Construction Bank and ICBC.

Although ABC President Zhang Yun immediately stressed that development loans only suspended from August 24th to August 31st a week, and only limited to the Agricultural Bank's own adjustment, the other three big banks also denying that the development loans were normally distributed, but the increasingly stringent multi sector real estate joint regulation and the habit of commercial banks generally looting loans still made the market worry about the statements of the four major banks.

"The first half of the ABC's activism is just an indication of the importance of early lending in the real estate sector to bank performance."

Analysis of the above bank of China credit analysis, "early development loans accounted for the heaviest, to the end of the three quarter, in fact, banks have basically put the annual plan of the real estate credit plan has been put to the end."

Looking back at the time node at the end of 8, real estate credit is coming to an end, according to the so-called credit schedule of banks.

This is why the market suspected banks, especially the four banks, continued to issue the authenticity of development loans.

Therefore, when the four major banks and the other two joint stock banks were implemented by the CBRC in October for a two month differential deposit reserve ratio, it became more convinced of the super credit of the four banks and the unsustainability of the growth of new loans in the fourth quarter.

"Four rows of large plates, a little loose, will release a lot of volume, so the CBRC supervision of the four major lines more closely, which also plays a role in regulating the market vane."

Although banks have a special interest in real estate loans, the credit executives of the ICBC said that in order to cooperate with the national macroeconomic regulation and control, in the first three quarters of the first quarter, the development of the loan was completed first. It is already more difficult for the four major banks to add new loans to the remaining credit balances. "Although it will not be ordered to stop development loans, it will be very easy for them to be" window "and" talk "if they do not cooperate.

"In order to prevent the power of local branches from being too large, and to eliminate performance greed and financial risks, the four major banks are currently adopting centralization, and the head office is responsible for the credit and loan control of real estate enterprises."

The head of the ICBC Credit Officer explained that the head office had set up a new credit quota for each branch according to local conditions. "Every single settlement data of the branch will be directly extracted by the head office, and the branch will be supervised in real time. When the new quota is full, no new loans will be allowed, but it can be replaced from the stock credit."

"Now that this channel will not work, many of the CBRC's supervision has blocked these channels. Even in the newly established inter bank asset credit pfer trading platform, the credit assets that have been traded are also short of medium and long-term local platforms and real estate credit."

The Bank of China believes that the break of the "first lending and post replacement" mode in the past has also caused the current development loan to a certain extent.

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Development loans fell 20% in 2011?

Refinancing, shutting down the floodgates, listing a dream, and raising the cost of private lending, coupled with the wait-and-see black clouds in the market controlled by industry regulation, have forced more developers to bet on the next year's plan on credit gates in 2011.

Banks are also actively pforming the demand for financing in the vacuum phase into next year's customer project reserves.

"By the middle of November, we will basically end the new round of credit for front-line developers and complete the project reserves for the first quarter of next year."

The executives of the ICBC said they would open up a new round of financing for developers after this year's deadline.

But all this does not mean that the financing difficulties of developers can be seen in the eyes of banks.

"Next year's money supply and bank credit volume is expected to not exceed this year, the regulation of the real estate industry will continue."

The attitude of the above bank members is right.

"This year, the regulatory authorities have mainly done three things to control the credit risks of local financing platforms, real estate and non-performing loans in the" three high "industries. This is actually based on the regulation and control to make moderately loose monetary policy gradually normalize.

But next year regulators will add fourth things to prevent inflation.

The bank believes.

The head office of the head office of Agricultural Bank of China has maintained the same view that under the combined action of four things, money supply and new credit will return to normal next year.

Groups with similar views are still expanding.

In November 11th, Societe Generale Bank (601166) chief economist Lu political commissar published a research report that, under the expectation of anti inflation regulation, it is foreseeable that China will continue to experience policy intensive periods, and it is estimated that credit will not exceed 7 trillion yuan next year.

In this regard, the ICBC credit officer said that ICBC's development loan in 2011 would be down 20% compared with this year.

"According to the credit situation we have completed, there is not much change in the number of front-line Housing enterprises represented by recruitment, insurance, money and gold, and there will be no more than 100 interventions for local platform risk control."