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Textile And Garment Export Growth Slowed Down &Nbsp, Yarn Market Still Needs Attention.

2010/11/15 16:33:00 73

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In the first 10 months,

Textiles and garments

Driven by rising demand and rising prices, cumulative exports grew by 22.98% over the same period last year, and continued to grow, but in October, exports were affected by the appreciation of the renminbi and the decrease in orders in the three quarter.

Speed up

The slowdown is in line with our earlier judgement on the export situation.

The future export is not optimistic under the situation of RMB appreciation and labor cost increase. But at present, cotton price promotes yarn price rising, we recommend focusing on yarn production enterprises, and in the process of recovery, leading enterprises in printing and dyeing and accessories industry are also concerned.

Main points of investment:

Before October, the demand for textile and clothing exports rebounded.

Rise in price

We continue to maintain growth under the impetus, but the growth rate slowed down in October, which is consistent with our earlier judgement.

In the first 10 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 167 billion 610 million US dollars, up 22.98% over the same period last year.

Among them, the total export of textiles was 62 billion 620 million US dollars, the total export volume of clothing was 105 billion US dollars, the growth rate was 29.4% and 19.45% respectively, while the export volume continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down in the four quarter.

In the first three quarters, the export of textiles and clothing, driven by 2 factors, the increase in export orders and the increase in the prices of export products, maintained a substantial growth in the 4 quarter. Due to the pressure of RMB appreciation and the reduction of EU orders, we reduced the export expectations in the 4 quarter in the 3 quarter, and the growth rate of exports in October slowed down, which is in line with our judgement.

In addition, due to the reasons for RMB appreciation, the actual growth rate of textile and clothing exports in October is still lower than the statistics of Customs (because the customs statistics unit is US dollars).

The slowdown in export growth of textiles indicates that the growth rate of exports will continue to slow down in the future.

In the first 7 months of 2010, the global textile industry was in a recovery trend. Textile export growth continued for 10 months faster than the growth rate of clothing, and textile exports in the first 7 months of 2010 reached US $42 billion 800 million, a 10.59% increase over the same period in the 08 years.

However, from the October export data, textile exports amounted to US $6 billion 89 million, the year-on-year growth rate was 11.17%, clothing exports were US $12 billion 504 million, the growth rate was 45.5% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate of textile exports was less than that of garment exports.

This shows that the boom in global textile and garment production has declined due to the shrinking demand in Europe and the United States, which will affect the overall growth of domestic textile and clothing exports in the future.

Due to the large increase in the first half of the year, the export volume of textile and clothing is expected to grow by 16% over the whole year.

Although the European Union's EU orders have declined in the three quarter, production orders for textile and garment export enterprises have already been in the three quarter, so the export growth of domestic textile and garment in the three quarter will still be guaranteed.

The reduction in orders in the three quarter will affect exports in the four quarter.

But for the whole year, because of the large increase in the first half of the year, we believe that the annual growth of textile and clothing exports will be around 16%.

Pay attention to the "bottleneck" sub industry in the process of industry recovery, printing and dyeing, accessories industry.

Due to serious pollution, printing and dyeing industry has been a national restricted industry since 08. Recently, there are few new printing and dyeing enterprises.

It is expected that the existing enterprises in the printing and dyeing industry can gain greater benefits in the gradual recovery of the textile industry.

At present, the listed companies which mainly focus on printing and dyeing are: Civil Aviation shares, public shares and shares.

Concerned about the industry revival process of the upper travel industry - yarn, grey cloth leading enterprises.

In October, due to the sharp rise in yarn and grey cloth prices due to the rise of cotton prices, large scale yarn manufacturing enterprises greatly enhanced their profitability because of their advantages in cotton reserves and purchase channels.

Cotton prices are expected to remain high in the future, and the annual performance of domestic yarn and grey fabric listed companies will increase significantly.

The domestic listed companies which mainly use yarn and grey cloth are Huamao stock, Huafu color spinning, Xinye textile and so on.

Risk warning: in the future, the excessive appreciation of RMB will engulf enterprises' order profits, and the future global economic trend will directly affect the order quantity of enterprises.