Analysis Of The Current Situation Of Textile Industry Ecology

　　 Labor shortage, sluice restriction, energy conservation and emission reduction, RMB appreciation, soaring raw material prices and interest rates. For the domestic garment and textile industry, which has just survived the economic crisis, 2010 is no doubt an extremely difficult year.

In order to understand the current situation of the industry and the Countermeasures of the enterprises, the Securities Times reporter went to the textile town of Shaoxing recently to conduct a field survey. During the period, a concentrated investigation was conducted on the ecological environment of traders, clothing enterprises, weaving factories and printing and dyeing enterprises.

Textile industry suffers raw material crisis

Shaoxing is located on the southern wing of the Yangtze River Delta, between the central and northern part of Zhejiang Province, between Hangzhou and Ningbo, and 280 kilometers away from Shanghai. It is a famous textile city and textile trade center in the country. In 2008, the financial crisis wreaked havoc around the world. Many textile enterprises in Shaoxing were closed down due to inventory depreciation and capital chain disruption.

In order to cope with the economic crisis, supporting enterprises to get out of difficulties, April 2009 The State Council Promulgated the "textile industry adjustment and revitalization plan". Subsequently, with the global economic warming, the textile industry, driven by the resumption of foreign trade orders and the continuous growth of domestic demand, completed the process of clearing, resuscitation and restocking through more than a year. In 2009, the output of chemical fiber, fabrics and printing and dyeing fabrics in Shaoxing was 2 million 430 thousand tons, 5 billion 600 million meters and 15 billion 600 million meters respectively, accounting for 10%, 9% and 30% of the whole country.

In the first half of 2010, textile exports in Shaoxing showed an explosive rebound. From 1 to July, the export of textiles and clothing in the city was 7 billion 740 million US dollars, up 36.9% over the same period last year, driving the city's foreign trade to record 3 months in a row. The industry has been optimistic that the textile industry has ushered in the spring. However, in the second half of this year, as the global cotton price rose sharply, the textile industry encountered a sudden raw material crisis.

Li Junfeng, who runs the fabric business in downtown Shaoxing, told reporters that the price of fabric is changing every day, and the market is simply "unable to understand". Sometimes customers are afraid of ordering, and on the one hand, they worry about the market price plummeting. Customers will default. At the same time, they worry about price inflation. If they do not purchase goods in time, they will lose money, but the supply is also very tight. Now, the risk of taking orders is huge, but without doing business, there is no business to pay rent and wages.

According to him, in two or three days, polyester fiber rose from 18400 yuan / ton to 22800 yuan / ton, and the price of embryo cloth rose 0.4-1 yuan / meter at the same time. Now the market operation is all in disorder. Some enterprises were forced to cancel the policy of not adjusting prices for four months in order to ensure that supply and purchase could be connected, and adopt the principle of following the market principle. Some companies advise customers to postpone orders, and make decisions when the market is stable.

Because of the high price at present, the businessmen in Shaoxing textile market, such as Li Junfeng, are generally afraid of high mentality. The transaction needs to pay full amount of money. They dare not buy the goods as much as 30% of the original funds, and some of the less powerful traders gradually fade out of the market. The so-called "hoarding" by traders is not accurate.

Reporters noted in the research process that, compared to the recession at the end of 2008, the current situation of Shaoxing's textile market has obviously improved, but traders are not having a good time. Not only that, cotton prices skyrocketed, like the collapse of Domino, quickly spread to yarn, fabric, finishing and other industrial chain links.

In the new manufacturing plant, Mr. Wang, director of the enterprise, said that there was an order of 370 thousand meters of fabric in Hongkong last time, and the customer paid 75% of the capital in advance. Then he added a portion of the money, and ordered all the raw materials ordered by the cotton yarn factory. But at the time of delivery, the other party watched cotton prices skyrocketing and asked for a price increase of 5000 yuan / ton, and explained that some people offered higher prices. If they did not accept the goods, the old contract was not not implemented, but the delivery time was uncertain. In desperation, Mr. Wang could only accept it, and the loading of goods on the way from Anhui to Zhejiang increased by 1000 yuan / ton.

Shortage of goods is also a thorny problem faced by textile enterprises. Mr. Wang pointed out that there was not much cotton yarn inventory in the storehouse. Before buying cotton yarn and calling 10 tons, the supplier sent 15 tons. But now we need 10 tons of cargo and 3 tons. As a result, the turnover of raw material inventory is becoming more and more urgent.

Cotton prices surged and supply was tight, mainly due to the global cotton production reduction. US Department of agriculture information shows that global cotton output will decrease by 20% from 2009 to 2010 in the year of 2006 to 2007, and the gap between production and demand will be 3 million 500 thousand tons. The National Bureau of statistics data show that China's cotton acreage and production has declined for three consecutive years. From 2007 to 2009, cotton production was 7 million 620 thousand tons, 7 million 490 thousand tons and 6 million 400 thousand tons respectively. Cotton production in China is also not optimistic this year.

From September to early November this year, domestic cotton prices climbed steadily, rising from about 18 thousand yuan per ton to more than 30 thousand yuan, or about 70%. In the textile industry, cotton is the most basic raw material, especially in underwear, home textiles and other fields. Cotton fiber accounts for almost 60% to 70% of the manufacturing cost of the enterprise. In order to ease the tight supply of the market, the State Cotton store has launched about 1000000 tons of reserve cotton since August.

"But they are all made of 328 or 329 grade cotton, and they can be used as gloves. There are very few high quality cotton fabrics for clothing." Mr. Wang said.

In addition, energy conservation and emission reduction will also have an impact on the normal production of Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry. In the road of the Industrial Development Zone, the reporter did not see the situation of Malone in his imagination. According to a local printing and dyeing enterprise, this year began to ensure the power supply of Shanghai Expo in May this year. In August and October, energy saving and emission reduction were also carried out. Nearly 100 of 191 printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were in semi shutdown state, and 90 were forced to stop work for 5 working days in a month. "Printing and dyeing fees have gone up by more than 2 cents. The order is stuck here, causing delays, and export enterprises have lost a lot of light and freight charges."

Labor shortage RMB Appreciation has become a hidden worry.

The price of raw materials will rise and fall, but the trend of labor shortage and labor cost increase is hard to change.

In Shaoxing, the reporter met Zheng Yu, an executive of a large garment enterprise in East China, who contacted the clothing industry in 1999. According to the introduction, the average wage of the workers in the 2000-2001 years is 600 yuan and 700 yuan, when the output value of each machine is 80 yuan per day, the clothing industry is very profitable. But now the wages of workers are rising very fast. For example, the average wage of the workers in Anhui Hefei factory is more than 2000 yuan, and 70 yuan per person per day. Therefore, plus machine losses, management fees, financial costs and miscellaneous fees, Taiwan's products should be at least 160 yuan or 170 yuan to make profits. Wage increases will have a great impact on garment foreign trade enterprises.

According to the relevant research data, China is now ushering in the "Lewis turning point", and the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing. The average working age population in China (16 to 64 years) will peak from 2010 to 2015, and the proportion of working age population will continue to decline.

At the same time, the appreciation of RMB also constitutes a long-term pressure on the operation of textile industry.

Starting in July 2005, the yuan started the exchange reform. As of the second half of 2008, the total value of the yuan appreciated 17.5% against the US dollar. Following the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the RMB exchange rate was temporarily maintained stable, but in June this year, the RMB restarted exchange rate reform, and has appreciated by 2.7% so far.

In recent years, clothing export is also raising prices for foreign customers, and the other side is a gradual process. Like RMB appreciation of 20%, clothing profits are getting thinner and thinner, which can only be maintained on a large scale, but it can not afford to delay the compensation of raw material prices and delivery delays. For example, these two factors are stacked together in the near future, and foreign trade orders are very difficult to do. Zheng Yu said.

　　 Textile industry seeks solutions

Textile business environment is deteriorating, and enterprises are looking for solutions.

Zheng Yu said that the impact of short-term raw material prices, export enterprises can adjust the trade order mode to transfer risks. For example, the quoted price of foreign customers is effective in 1 months. In the second half of this year, it will be effective within 1 weeks. In the last few weeks, the validity period of the offer will be shortened to only 2 days, which will reduce the risk of the order. The long-term impact of RMB appreciation and labor shortage can only be relieved by expanding the domestic demand market, increasing production efficiency and transferring factories to the mainland.

"Now the price of domestic clothing is even higher than that of export. For example, a brand medium shirt, selling 300 or 400 yuan in the domestic market is very normal, but it is less than 50 dollars to sell a foreign tag. Also for example, Decathlon, 361, domestic sales capacity of 300 yuan, 400 yuan. And the output of WAL-MART exported to Taiwan is only 150 yuan. Some foreign trade enterprises began to specialize in the domestic market.

Then the factory will shift to the mainland to improve production efficiency. In addition to factories in Shanghai and Jiangsu Qidong, Zheng Yu's clothing manufacturers also set up factories in Anhui and worked with other factories in the mainland to reduce labor costs. A total of more than 2000 workers in these factories have increased the proficiency of workers through the large orders of foreign trade, and made Taiwan's products from 150 to 170, increasing profits.

But reporters also noted that Mr. Wang's weaving factory had no intention of moving inland. His factory had only more than 100 workers, most of whom were local. In order to retain workers, the company has built a new dormitory, equipped with TV, air conditioning, bathroom. And next year's factory budget, all workers' wages will rise by 20%.

According to the introduction, weaving and printing and dyeing links in the middle reaches of textile industry are actually not labor intensive, and the technical content is quite high. 1 workers manage many looms, or 1 entire printing and dyeing production lines. There are not many workers who really produce. Therefore, compared with downstream garment manufacturing, the cost of employment is not so sensitive, and the room for living space is not very large. On the contrary, the textile industry group in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has an advantage in logistics, matching and pollution control. The transportation cost of individual enterprises will increase and may not survive.

　 Watch out for the loss of industrial capital

Mr. Wang has four brothers in his family. He opened factories at the beginning of his business. Ten years have passed. Now Mr. Wang alone sticks to the weaving factory. Although he is the boss in name, he is the worst among the brothers.

"Sometimes it's very boring to think about closing the factory." He said that after the 60 full cotton yarn came in, the market price rose from 39000 to 62000 yuan, and selling cotton yarn can earn 20 thousand / ton, or cash. But hard to make fabric for customers, earn only 5 cents per meter, but also ensure quality, package transportation. "So many people are reluctant to do business now. The Keqiao Textile City Department stores have become rich.

Mr. Wang did not make much money in the main business of the factory. In 2008, Mr. Wang rented a shop in Keqiao. The rent was 150 thousand yuan / year. At that time, the rent price was 1 million 300 thousand yuan. Last year the rent rose to 250 thousand yuan, and the rentals were sold to 2 million 850 thousand yuan. This year the rent is 290 thousand yuan, and the tenancy is more than 4 million yuan.

"There is a factory behind us. The year before last, the boss rent out the factory buildings and dormitories, and the rent is still hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. He has done more business and investment, and his life has been happier than mine. Mr. Wang said.

It is difficult for entities to do business, but asset price bubbles are expanding rapidly, which brings great psychological impact to business owners. Reporters found in the survey, the textile industry and other traditional industries, is moving the trend of industrial capital moving. Like the current textile market, many speculators used to make the fabric industry. There is a spring department store in Keqiao. There is a row of shops below. When it was just built 3 years ago, 10 million people bought 12 from the developers' hands. After a while, the house was built, and he sold 13 million to second people, making 3 million. The second people took 2 years ago, and recently just sold at a price of nearly 60 million.

Some people fought the private lending market after the factory was liquidated. For example, in 2007 and 2008, market funds were tight. They mainly used to do bank acceptance bills, and now they began to do underground loan business. According to the insiders, during the financial crisis, banks issued a lot of short-term loans to help private enterprises to turn around, and these loans were gradually expired. If enterprises want to renew loans, they can not afford tens of millions or billions of dollars of cash to repay the old debts at the same time. They can only borrow money from the private sector and repay banks, and then get new loans from banks. So the demand for lending is suddenly magnified, and now this business is very profitable. For example, 10 million yuan. capital There are tens of thousands and tens of thousands of income at a time, and 20% of the profits can be achieved in one year, and it is easy to get familiar with bank relations. It is determined that enterprises will lend again after repayment, so money will be stored in the morning and taken out in the afternoon, and it will not bear any risks at all.

The industry is facing difficulties and external temptations. But thankfully, many enterprises continue to seek development in the industry through stock technology transformation and the introduction of advanced technology.

Yuantong Textile Co., Ltd. invested 150 million yuan in this year's production of 15 million sets of seamless knitted underwear production lines through independent research and development of high-grade circular machines. Fengyi pad dyeing has been developed from simple printing and dyeing processing to high technology energy saving and emission reduction printing and dyeing equipment. The project has been listed as a national high technology transformation project. According to Shaoxing economic and Trade Bureau data, in the first three quarters of this year, the textile industry promoted 248 projects and completed the investment of 4 billion 380 million yuan, an increase of 13% over the same period last year, which is 6.7 percentage points higher than that of the whole county.

　　 "Clothing and textile industry is a traditional industry, and it is difficult to make huge profits. But the terminal consumption is stable, and domestic demand is growing very fast. There is an opportunity for enterprises to do their best." Zheng Yu said.