Cotton Prices Frantically Push The Cotton Industry Chain To Deadlock

In November 27th, Anhui cotton business week Kai Fai had bought the ticket from Urumqi. The price of cotton madness had excited him a few weeks ago, but at this point, he could only choose to "stay away from the roller coaster as soon as possible".

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Zhou Qihui wants to know what makes cotton prices so "Crazy".

After playing with the landlords for several days in a guesthouse, Zhou Qihui and several Southern cotton merchants decided not to play, and went home.

The reason is that cotton spinning enterprises are also looking at cash and will not buy them easily, even if they receive cheap cotton.

For investors in every aspect of the cotton industry chain, it is unclear what will be allowed.

Grow cotton and produce millions of millionaires every year.

Zhou Qihui thought he was lucky. "Because of the limited economic strength, I didn't have any stockpile at hand.

When the price is good, cotton flowers are too late.

How much is the number of cotton enterprises in the mainland, and now it seems that no inventory has become a good thing.

But not everyone is as lucky as Zhou Qihui.

Chen Jun, a cotton farmer in Akesu, is still hoarding more than 4000 kilograms of seed cotton. "When the price is high, he wants to wait for it to rise again. Now it has fallen so much that it can not sell."

Maybe cotton prices will go back in a few days. "

In fact, before the "turning point" of cotton prices appeared, most cotton farmers in Xinjiang had sold cotton at a high price.

So the recent decline in cotton prices has little impact on cotton farmers.

Cotton prices soared at an incredible speed in late October.

Despite the two consecutive sell-off of the national cotton reserves and the purchase of many imported cotton, it has only played a short-term callback effect and can not restrain the upward trend of cotton prices.

The purchase price of long staple cotton in southern Xinjiang is close to the crazy 14 yuan / kg, and the upland cotton is also hovering around 13 yuan. A data with a comparative meaning is that the average purchase price of cotton last year was less than 7 yuan per kilogram.

"This year is already sky high.

Three generations of cotton in my family have never met such a price.

Yu Li has 4000 mu of cotton land, and the cost of cotton fields per acre is about 1500 yuan.

According to the cotton price of 400 kilograms per mu and 11 yuan per kilogram, the output per mu is 4400 yuan. "Excluding the cost, the net profit of every Mu is about 2900 yuan, and this year it can earn more than 11 million yuan."

Yu Li said.

A cadre of the local agricultural bureau of Sha Ya county said, "planting cotton, producing millions of millionaires a year, who dares to say that this is not the best harvest in history?"

It is understood that Sha Ya county in Akesu area, about 4 million 500 thousand acres of cotton fields, conservative in accordance with the purchase price of 12 yuan / kg, 300 kilograms per mu calculation, this year will produce 16 billion 200 million yuan output value, deducting the cost of 1500 yuan per mu, this year cotton will probably contribute 9 billion 450 million yuan for Akesu area.

In November 25th, Liu Hongxia of the 129 regiment of Kuitun said, "I heard that cotton price has dropped to more than 7 yuan per kilogram, and we do not know whether it is true."

For Liu Hongxia, the true and false are no longer important. Most of the cotton picked in the early stage has only been left with very little stock.

"Cotton farmers don't sell much this year. At such a good price, everyone was afraid of falling down.

It's a little weird. "

Liu Hongxia's family planted 89.49 mu of cotton this year, and seed cotton output was more than 30 tons.

"This year is sold between 8 yuan and 10 yuan per kilogram.

Liu Hongxia said, "selling cotton seeds in the past year, the lowest time is 4.5 yuan per kilogram, 7 yuan is the highest, this year this price has been a miracle."

In October, the main cotton producing area became a hot spot for cotton merchants to compete. From southern Akesu and Kashi to Kuitun and Shihezi in the north of Xinjiang, cotton merchants from the mainland sought cotton through various relations, causing hotels to be full, and cotton prices began to climb steadily as the cotton merchants in all directions flocked to the Lan Xin railway.

According to incomplete statistics, from September to October this year, only twenty thousand businessmen who went to Akesu to buy cotton were in Wenzhou.

Akesu is an important cotton production base in the country. Xinjiang's important cotton trading center and light textile industry gathering place is called "China Cotton capital" and "the hometown of China's long staple cotton".

Its cotton output accounts for 1/8 of the whole country, and long staple cotton accounts for 93% of the total output of the country.

In November 10th, the Xinjiang quality supervision system held an emergency video conference and put forward 6 measures to ensure that there is no serious quality problem in Xinjiang cotton in the new year.

The reason is that cotton prices are skyrocketing, and the phenomenon of massive acquisitions by non qualified enterprises is prominent. Enterprises are serious in buying up prices and jumping across regions, and buying super cotton and not picking foreign fibers.

The surprising high price of cotton has made many cotton farmers in Xinjiang rich. In Akesu and Korla, cotton farmers can even drive BMW to sell cotton in the field.

However, because of the pricing contract at the beginning of the year, some farmers in Xinjiang must complete the purchase according to the unified pricing of the state, and they can not enjoy the wealth opportunities brought about by the high price of the cotton market this year.

Wang Guanghui, a group of cotton farmers in the eight division of the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps, revealed that the unified purchase price of cotton this year was around 8.5 yuan / kg.

He calculated a sum of accounts. He contracted 500 acres of cotton fields this year. The total output is estimated to be 150 tons. According to the "unified pricing" of 8.5 yuan / kg, he can get about 1200000 yuan, but according to the market price 12 yuan / kilogram, he can get about 1800000 yuan, the difference is enough to have 600 thousand yuan.

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The frenzied cotton price has brought the cotton industry chain to an impasse.

In November 8th, the 7 departments of the national development and Reform Commission issued urgent notices and put forward 6 measures to maintain order in the cotton market.

The notice requires that relevant departments should strengthen the quality supervision of the cotton market, focus on strengthening the management of rural cotton brokers, and seriously investigate and punish illegal activities that disrupt market order and fail to fulfill quality obligations.

In the view of the industry, the central bank recently raised the reserve requirement ratio of banks again, forming a strong expectation of shrinking liquidity, which caused the crazy cotton market to be suppressed before, and cotton prices fell down.

In November 11th, the cotton futures market plunged rapidly, which became an important turning point of cotton prices this year.

The cotton futures main contract of the Zhengzhou mercantile exchange continued to fall sharply from the same day. The settlement price in November 18th was only 26955 yuan / ton, while the previous highest offer was 33720 yuan / ton in November 10th, and nearly 7000 yuan per ton.

A day later, the price of cotton spot market in Xinjiang also declined rapidly, and the price dropped to 27000 yuan / ton from the highest 32000 yuan / ton.

Subsequently, prices fell all the way.

Zhang Shengli, chairman of Korla Shengli Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., said: "almost a day's price is not going up or falling."

Cotton merchants Zhou Kai Hui said that many cotton enterprises in Kuitun and Akesu began to reduce purchases or even stop production as cotton prices continued to fall. Textile enterprises were pessimistic and unwilling to buy new lint.

Wei Gao, chairman of the new cotton group, believes that the high domestic cotton market has led to an increasing risk of cotton business.

The ferocious cotton price has been putting Xinjiang's cotton industry chain in an impasse.

"When the price of seed cotton is soaring, cotton processing enterprises do not dare to purchase large quantities of products. Even if cotton lint is produced, no cotton spinning enterprises dare to accept the dishes."

Hong Ping, deputy general manager of the largest lint sales company in Shihezi and the silver force cotton industry group (Group) of Western Xinjiang, said that the price of Cotton Traders and processing plants was "high" when prices were rising, but in fact, most of them had no market price, and few cotton textile enterprises that dared to buy large quantities.

At present, prices are falling, and most enterprises are at risk of losing money, so they all take a wait-and-see attitude.

Xinjiang Wusu silver Xiang cotton industry Limited Liability Company a staff member told reporters that for cotton processing enterprises, cotton prices fluctuate too much, and the risk borne by enterprises will also increase.

This year, the company needs 12000 tons of seed cotton, but now only 8000 tons of goods are available, and there are still 4000 tons of shortfall.

It is understood that the company bought around 9.7 yuan per kilogram.

Cotton has fallen recently. "At present, there are more than 1000 tons of lint and more than 4000 tons of seed cotton not sold."

She said frankly, "cotton prices are falling so fast now that it is difficult to sell cotton under the premise of ensuring profits.

Let's wait and see. "

Xinjiang dish Wang Knitting Co., Ltd., business host Jia Zhijiang told reporters that because of the recent cotton prices began to fall, their company is mainly through reducing production to strive to protect the market and protect the market share.

"100 thousand sets of previous suits have done less than half this year.

The rising price of cotton has a great impact on the production and sales of enterprises.

The best way to avoid risks is to cut production, but we can't reduce production every year. "Jia Zhijiang said," once in 1992, cotton prices rose, but the brakes stopped soon.

This year's price increase can only be described as "outrageous", which is fast and short. I remember that cotton prices have increased by more than 4000 yuan per ton in a day.

"At present, the cotton price is about 3000 yuan per ton, and the yarn price is reduced by more than 1000 yuan per ton."

He said frankly that cotton prices, as downstream enterprises, is "price increases".

"Cotton prices have been on the low side for a long time, and the cotton growers will benefit from the timely increase, and the planting area and quality will be improved in the future.

We just want it to rise steadily and not to be baffled. "

A large cotton enterprise official in Akesu said, "there will be a big drop after the big rise.

If the hot money that supports cotton prices suddenly withdraws, it will lead to a sharp fall in cotton prices, which is a disaster for the textile industry, for cotton farmers or for our country.

Because the company acquired a large amount of pre acquisition, although the fast forward and quick sales strategy was adopted, some of the lint was not ready to sell in time.

"Although the price has dropped, the market outlook is unclear. Who dares to rush to start buying a lot?" the official said.

For the aftermarket, some cotton processing enterprises are cautiously optimistic: "the processing cost of lint is as high as $25, 000, 000 per ton. Besides, cotton is still a shortage, and the cost price is there, even if it falls, it will not fall anywhere, and it will fall to cost price at most."

Shihezi Zheshang holding cotton business executives think cotton prices will rise again, 28000 yuan / ton is his psychological price.

Capital encirclement of cotton

The craziness of the cotton market in 2010 was actually a harbinger.

In August 12th, the US Department of Agriculture announced the forecast of cotton supply and demand. The inventory of cotton at the end of the 2010/11 year was reduced to 45 million 610 thousand bales (1 packages of 500 pounds), and the consumption rose from 119 million 700 thousand packages to 120 million 870 thousand packs.

What will happen to the market when the low inventory is experiencing high consumption? Before this stagnant international cotton futures market began to be excited.

In September 13th, on the three Executive Council of the two cotton association of China, Wei Gaocheng, chairman of new cotton group, analyzed the cotton situation of Xinjiang this year, saying: "in the comprehensive domestic and international market situation, it is generally believed that the international market is expected to be stable and strong, and the domestic market will remain high."

The cotton growers in Sha Ya county, Akesu, remember that in August, when cotton was just making a peach, a group of Zhejiang people came to see cotton in their own cotton fields.

These legendary "Zhejiang futures big family" after listening to their own output, he told him: "you will make a fortune this year."

Shortly afterwards, Yu Li and the cotton growers around him found themselves in the money pile.

From August to October, the cotton futures price of Zhengzhou futures exchange surged to nearly 34000 yuan / ton from 17000 yuan / ton.

"Cotton prices are soaring due to a variety of reasons. In addition to the reduction in planting area, the main reason is that the temperature is low this year, and in the face of snow and ice disasters, the production decline is almost a foregone conclusion."

Song Yunfeng, director of the Xinjiang agricultural eight division, Shihezi Municipal Economic Commission (Industry Bureau), said that every year from August to new cotton listing was just a "vacuum period" for the supply of cotton. From the past years, the private capital would act and cotton prices fluctuated more frequently.

In addition, India, a big producer, may restrict cotton exports and so on.

"It should be the effect of multiple factors."

A new cotton group, a person who does not want to be named, said that the key link of cotton price craziness is "cotton acquisition (seed cotton) cotton processing and marketing (lint)" link, all kinds of capital are being pursued and blocked, and the relevant departments are not well prepared, resulting in cotton craziness.

The official said that there was a big gap between domestic and international cotton supply and demand due to reduced production and climate effects. This information was circulated in the industry at the beginning of the year.

In the eyes of the responsible person, the "social hot money", which has been repeatedly criticized, has confused the cotton market.

At the beginning of the year, some of the most expensive textile giants in China began to hoarse cotton, "of course, because they were worried about the rise in cotton prices and made the raw materials.

But they have an amazing amount of money to stir up the market price. "

China Cotton Association August industry Description: "large and medium-sized enterprises are very stocking at present, and some large textile enterprises have 6 months of cotton consumption."

In the past two years, their inventories were even less than 1 months' consumption.

After that, the hot money in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces entered the market. During the cotton purchase period, there were many businessmen in Jiangsu and Zhejiang who came to buy Cotton in Xinjiang.

A game of drumbeating and flower spreading begins, cotton planting (cotton growers) - Cotton acquisition (seed cotton) - cotton processing and marketing (lint) - Cotton Textile - clothing manufacturing...

Prices have been raised a little.

A chain of high prices began to take shape, and all kinds of genuine and false news that helped to raise prices were intentionally or unintentionally put into the market.

No one believes that the "cotton" that is constantly pmitted will remain in its own hands.

In October 29th, the 7 ministries and commissions of the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued urgent notifications, and announced in an unprecedented and severe manner that they should severely punish "malicious hoarding and bid up prices".

In November 8th, the 7 departments again issued urgent notices and put forward 6 measures to maintain order in the cotton market.

"What is the reason why cotton prices deviate from the real value and how far away are they? Why are these enterprises in the bottom of their hearts? They need the government to give a clear signal." a head of a cotton enterprise in Shihezi said that when the cotton price was the most frenzied this year, the news was everywhere, making it difficult to distinguish between true and false. This gave some interest groups the opportunity to hype. At that time, a lot of overloaded cotton enterprises frequently sought help from industry associations, hoping that the government could release the statistics of the cotton market at the first time and prevent individual capital from taking the opportunity to hype.