The Politburo Meeting Set The Tone For &Nbsp; Monetary Policy Is Tightening.

According to convention, the Political Bureau meeting held at this time is intended to set the tone for the upcoming economic work conference, and the spirit of the conference may see the keynote of next year's economic work.

The spirit of the conference is almost the same as before, that is, the steady growth of the active fiscal policy and the prudent monetary policy controlling inflation.

Before the Central Committee held a forum of non party personages and asked for advice on economic work, general secretary Hu Jintao also pointed out that we should effectively strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, and handle the stable economic growth, adjust the economic structure and management more actively and steadily.

According to the previous market analysis, the steady setting of monetary policy shows that management inflation expectations are more important in macroeconomic regulation and control next year.

In fact, not only monetary policy, but also the recent signs of administrative regulation by the relevant departments of the state, have also intensified the market's expectation of the state's determination to control inflation.

NDRC interviewed four edible oils

Reporters learned that the greeting can not rise in price far more than four major edible oil enterprises.

In November 30th, the State Council price supervision group and the Heilongjiang provincial government jointly held a forum on stabilizing prices of large backbone enterprises. 17 major agricultural products (000061) of the Great Northern Wilderness (600598) rice industry group were invited to participate in production, processing and operation.

In addition, many cotton purchase and sale enterprises and cotton textile enterprises in Xinjiang also received oral or formal notification from relevant departments, and were asked to cooperate with price regulation.

A manager of a cotton buying and selling enterprise told our reporter that the acquisition of cotton was a policy loan issued by the agricultural development bank. The company has recently been informed that the price of cotton should be sold as soon as possible, and that the purchase price should be based on the guidance price in the line, and that the purchase price should be higher than a certain price.

The Futures Company received notice from the regulatory authorities that it was requested not to boost the price of agricultural products, and to raise the margin and paction costs of customers in the course of business, so as to remind customers not to overdo it.

There are indications that the administrative regulation deliberately avoided by relevant departments is heading for the front stage.

Administrative control and upgrading

In December 2nd, Liu Weichun, manager of cotton futures Department of Jinshi futures, told our reporter that under the background of tightened monetary policy and the massive introduction of state policies, the way of meeting, greeting and direct delivery of documents by relevant departments appeared to be more concentrated in administrative regulation and control, and the determination to control prices was more obvious.

What Liu Weichun is doing now is to tell the enterprise about the macroeconomic situation so that the enterprises can see clearly the situation and not blindly sell it.

He told the newspaper reporters that after November 20th, the company received at least two documents issued by the regulatory authorities, which explicitly raised the margin and paction costs of futures trading, and asked the company to remind customers who overlooked too much.

In fact, in the field of cotton trade in Xinjiang, far more than the futures industry is being reminded by the regulatory authorities orally and in writing, circulation and production enterprises are among them.

Recently, the inspection team of the State Council has been involved in pportation, supply, sale, futures and so on.

The railway department said publicly that it was necessary to protect Xinjiang's cotton Sinop, and some enterprises were asked to produce as soon as possible and sell to protect the market supply.

The relevant departments even explicitly pointed out below that Xinjiang enterprises shall not purchase stored cotton stored in the warehouse in the mainland, otherwise they will be disposed of by default.

In order to ensure the price stability and supply stability of edible oil, the NDRC on Friday summoned four edible oil giants to make clear during the two sessions that the price of small package edible oil should not be raised again.

At the stable price forum held by the State Council price supervision group and the Heilongjiang provincial government, the leaders of the Great Northern Wilderness rice group, 93 grease, gifted animal husbandry, Feida dairy, betian sugar industry and Haida share company said they would actively supply the production guarantee, promote the basic price stability with adequate supplies, ensure that the main necessities of life are not sold out, and they do not take the initiative to raise prices.

From the end of November to December 20th, the inspector general of the State Council will also go to 18 provinces and regions to conduct price supervision.

Faced with such a firm determination to control prices, every enterprise needs careful consideration before price rises.

The head of a cotton buying and selling enterprise, who is in charge of price regulation, told reporters that similar inspectors and interviews were very cooperative with the enterprises. The effect was basically immediate, and even if the company temporarily lost money, they would take the overall situation into consideration.

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Administrative monetary strength

The determination of price supervision, interviews with enterprises and meeting tables has shown that more and more administrative regulation means more and more attention has been paid to price regulation.

In November 30th, the NDRC pointed out that we should correctly understand the policies and measures to keep the general price level stable.

On the second day, there was no need for the media to implement the price interim intervention measures throughout the country in order to interpret the document.

But then, the NDRC talked about the news of edible oil giants demanding that prices should not be increased. From another perspective, it seems that the focus of the issue should be in the latter half of the document, that is, when necessary, temporary intervention measures can be implemented for important necessities and production materials.

Ma Wenfeng, senior analyst at the eastern agrie agricultural consulting company, said in an interview with the newspaper that the reason why the administrative regulation is concerned is that the similar regulation means the most effective and immediate effect.

Taking edible oil as an example, the NDRC has managed several major enterprises to control the price of edible oil in the domestic market.

Liu Weichun said that the departments concerned frequently sent out papers, greeted, and even guided prices, which clearly showed the state's determination to control.

At this time, even a large number of people will change their expectations, because even if monetary and fiscal means can not play a role very quickly, coupled with administrative regulation and control, the price will definitely fall under the state's key regulation.

Sure enough, the cotton price of Xinjiang dropped by five thousand or six thousand yuan per ton in 10 days after the issuance of the NDRC, and large oil wholesalers lowered their prices.

However, as the development and Reform Commission said, such interventions are temporary and complementary.

Just like in 2007, the NDRC tried out the price fixing policy for edible oil enterprises, and ultimately the enterprises suffered losses. They could only take measures such as stopping production and limiting production, so as to truly achieve a steady fall in prices, and market-oriented economic measures were still the solution.

Ma Wenfeng believes that monetary policy as a total volume policy is relatively slow, but at the same time as administrative measures temporarily curb prices, the liquidity pressure in the early stage and the liquidity pressure of us quantitative easing policy still rely on monetary policy to tighten liquidity.

The Political Bureau meeting just now, the steady monetary policy, and the administrative regulation being implemented will tell the market participants from a realistic angle. In the future macroeconomic regulation and control, monetary policy and administrative regulation will simultaneously exert force to achieve the purpose of controlling inflation.

The national development and Reform Commission has continued to maintain stability and price stability.

December 3rd

The national development and Reform Commission and relevant departments establish a mechanism to guarantee the supply of vegetable market and stabilize the price department.

November 26th

The scope of toll collection for fresh agricultural products is extended to four new varieties such as all new toll roads.

November 26th

The State Council inspector team went to various localities to supervise and check prices and ensure the implementation of basic living conditions for the masses.

November 26th

The key to stabilizing prices and stabilizing life is to carry out the implementation.

November 25th

Take measures to stabilize prices and protect the people -- four on implementing the spirit of the State Council's notice on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices and safeguarding the basic livelihood of the masses.

November 24th

Strengthening supervision of market prices according to law -- third on implementing the spirit of the State Council's notice on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices and safeguarding the basic livelihood of the masses

November 23rd

Earnestly grasp the principles and requirements of price regulation and Supervision -- two on implementing the spirit of the State Council's notice on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices and safeguarding the basic livelihood of the masses.

November 22nd

China has the ability to keep the general price level basically stable. First, on the implementation of the State Council's notice on stabilizing the general level of consumer prices and safeguarding the basic livelihood of the masses.