Zheng Cotton Ushered In A Technological Rebound This Week.

This week, Zheng cotton After the slump, it has finally seen a long delayed rise. In the 5 trading days, 4 trading days all received a red line, a week's increase of 9%.

Analysts believe that Zheng cotton after the crash, there is a need for technological rebound, but cotton prices are still subject to macroeconomic regulation and control, rising pressure, but in the face of tight supply, cotton prices are also supported, it is expected that the market will remain oscillatory.

This week Zheng cotton oversold and rebounded.

Yesterday, the market downturn, a variety of varieties fell, but Zheng cotton continues the strength of the day before yesterday, against the market 2.31%. This week, the main 1109 contract opened 24355 yuan / ton this week, closing 26815 yuan / ton, up 2355 yuan / ton, or 9.63%, 11 million 412 thousand hands.

Guangsheng futures analyst Xie Xianghua believes that, first of all, after the previous collapse, Zheng cotton has a strong rebound in technology.

Since the record high price of 33600 yuan / ton in November 10th, Zheng cotton 1109 contract has started a rapid decline for more than half a month. Up to now, the lowest price has dropped to 24180 yuan / ton, the current round of decline has nearly 10000 yuan.

　 Cotton price is subject to Key regulation and control

Guangsheng futures analyst Xie Xianghua believes that cotton has been the focus of attention in the current round of price regulation, and the impact of regulation on the market still exists. At the beginning of this month, the state will hold an economic work conference to set the tone for next year's macroeconomic policy. It is expected that before the conference, the state will continue to regulate prices vigorously and supervise the futures market and electronic trading market. Although the shortage of basic cotton continues to support cotton prices with high opportunities, but in view of the domestic policy of repeated suppression will still make the cotton market is difficult to appear a big reversal signal, the recent rebound is mostly through the previous sharp fall technical correction, on the whole, the cotton market is still suppressed by the policy.

Liu Qing, a researcher at new lake futures farm product, believes that the upward trend of cotton city is facing the pressure of macroeconomic and policy regulation. In recent months, the central bank has tightened its liquidity measures several times in the face of increasing CPI, and the State Council has also introduced measures to stabilize prices based on agricultural products; the NDRC has actively carried out research and intervention measures throughout the country. Against this background, market funds are more cautious and the pressure of cotton rising is greater. From the perspective of technological form, K-line entities have fallen back to all the short term and are under pressure.

　 cotton Shortage situation Not change

On the other hand, the shortage of cotton in the domestic spot market has not been improved. Supply is still tight, and spot prices continue to rise. The wait-and-see mood of enterprises is strong. On the one hand, cotton processors are not willing to lower the selling price under the pressure of cost. In addition, the enthusiasm of textile enterprises to purchase is also greatly reduced, and the turnover is not active.

In the foreign market, the latest US Department of agriculture's export sales report shows that the volume and volume of the US cotton export have both picked up, and the volume of purchases from China has increased significantly. In addition, India said that limiting the export of cotton yarn has great support for the market. With the gradual warming of the surrounding commodities, the US dollar index fell sharply on the two day, and it also helped to pick up the momentum of cotton. At present, the long strength of cotton can not be overlooked. This week, the US cotton trend was strong, and the 5 trading days rose strongly. On Wednesday and Thursday two days, the US cotton continued to close to the daily limit for two consecutive days, and the weekly gain reached more than 15%.

Liu Qing, a researcher at new lake futures agricultural products, also believes that the supply of cotton will be tightened again in the latter part of the year. From the perspective of supply and demand sides, as a trading enterprise and a processing enterprise holding cotton, if there is no shortage of funds, there will still be an opportunity to sell cotton on top of the psychological price; and with the consumption of cotton stocks in textile mills, there will still be demand for replenishment sooner or later. According to the current market structure, the seller in the latter market is slightly better than the latter in terms of strength comparison. As the price of seed cotton has dropped significantly, the cost of newly acquired cotton is relatively low, and cotton prices in the future market are mainly stable or slightly rising.

Spot purchase cost will be the basic support of cotton city. Since late September, cotton purchase cost has been over 24000, and it has been over 26000 since the end of October. Moreover, because of the late listing of cotton this year, cotton purchased at a price of more than 26000 is relatively large. From a technical point of view, the support of the previous 26000 has broken down, and the support strength below 23500~24000 is stronger than that of the 26000.

Overall, the supply and demand gap of domestic 10/11 is 3 million 701 thousand tons. Due to the large export policy of India, I am afraid that the international market may not have enough cotton to import this year, and the domestic surplus resources are also insufficient. From the whole year to the end of the year, or before and after June, the gap between supply and demand will bring upward pressure on cotton prices.

　 Analysis

Aftermarket sustained oscillation

Technically speaking, Xie Xianghua, Guang Sheng futures analyst, believes that the KD index of Zheng cotton 1109 contract has a low gold cross. Zheng Mian 1109 has broken through the pre pressure level of 26100. If Zheng cotton can win the support at this price, Zheng cotton is expected to stand on 27700 yuan / ton. On the whole, cotton prices will enter the concussion period in the short term, and investors should be cautious in their layout. Textile enterprises can consider buying hedging at low positions and arranging early production and business plans after the Spring Festival. At present, the regional concussion or short-term Zheng cotton market is the main theme.

　　 Liu Qing, a researcher at new lake futures agricultural products, believes that due to the slack spot transaction, the support for the continued rise in futures prices is insufficient. From the technical perspective, the 20 day line is a great pressure on the 1109 contract and does not rule out the possibility of pressure drop. It is expected that next week will continue to fluctuate between the EMA and pay attention to the trend of CPI next week and the possible regulatory measures taken by the state.