PTA Downstream Demand Is Significantly Weaker Than Earlier Stage.

Recently, along with the gradual digestion of market regulation policy, the rise of cotton prices, and the improvement of US economic data, the weakening of the US dollar and the rebound of crude oil, the domestic PTA period is now recovering from two cities and rebounded slightly.

For the future, I think, although the short-term macroeconomic background is conducive to the PTA market rebound, but because the central economic conference has not been held, next year's credit indicators are not yet determined, and PTA's own fundamentals are weak, so it is suggested that investors should be cautious to the PTA rebound.

The author believes that the PTA market is more likely to turn into an oscillating market, and the main operating space of the 1105 contract is expected to be 9000 - 10000.

On the operation, investors are still expected to take a look at the rise of PTA.

The macro environment is conducive to commodity market rebound in the short run, but uncertainty still exists.

The 3 session of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC pointed out that next year, China's monetary policy will turn to "steady". This shows that the Chinese government has formally shifted its focus from pushing economic growth to fighting inflation.

Prudent monetary policy is neutral, better than tight. It is expected that domestic pressure to tighten liquidity will continue to increase, and the central bank will further increase interest rates. However, if small increases in interest rates will be difficult to change the current situation of excess liquidity in China, it will be conducive to maintaining high commodity prices.

However, it is important to note that the central economic conference has not yet been held. Next year's credit indicators have not yet been determined. At the same time, the CPI data in November have not been released.

In addition, we do not rule out the relevant departments in the late period to curb inflation, and further introduce administrative measures to suppress commodity prices.

Data released last week showed that the number of new jobs in the US was less than expected in November.

Us November

Of course, the rise in crude oil prices will also help boost raw material prices in the upper reaches of PTA, especially naphtha, so as to boost the market for chemicals, including PTA.

At present, the WTI crude oil contract in the near future is "90 dollars" integer pass, but because the rise in oil prices is mainly driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in heating oil prices, it is uncertain whether the market will break through effectively.

However, once oil prices break through this barrier effectively, opening up their future space will greatly boost the prices of chemical products.

Weak fundamentals suppression

First of all, PTA's cost support is limited.

Last weekend, the spot price of PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rose to 9220 yuan / ton line. The price of Taiwan's PTA was roughly 1162 yuan / ton, and the cost of import and export was roughly 9600 yuan / ton.

The increase in internal and external spreads, and the rise in PTA spot prices greatly reduced the PTA's drop.

However, the current price of PX can not provide strong support for the PTA market.

Last Friday, the PX price was $1270 / ton, and the PTA production cost was about 7860 yuan / ton. The gross profit of PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was about 1360 yuan / ton, and the gross profit of PTA spot was still acceptable.

Asia's MX price rose 25 US dollars to 1018 to 1019 dollars / ton FOB last weekend, and PX fell 6 to 1263 to 1264 US dollars / ton, the price difference of two was 245 US dollars / ton, Asian naphtha rose 5 US dollars to 834 - 839 dollar / ton CFR Japan, PX and naphtha oil price difference was US $/ ton.

From the point of view of price difference, whether integrated or monomer PX production profits are good, helps to maintain the enterprise's production enthusiasm.

Asian PX prices are expected to be oscillating.

Secondly, domestic PTA supply pressure has picked up.

In late November, domestic PTA unit overhaul and fault shutdown basically ended, and the PTA plant startup rate increased to 9. In addition, the main PTA of China PTA was basically overhauled in East Asia.

At present, only a few sets of devices in India are still under repair in Asia. If we do not consider the failure of the latter devices, then the domestic PTA supply pressure will rise significantly.

Finally, the downstream demand of PTA is obviously weaker than earlier stage.

Recent polyester polyester products inventory rose, prices continued to fall, polyester products gross profit fell sharply earlier.

To this end, China Chemical (601117, Guba) Fiber Industry Association issued a warning, suggesting that chemical fiber enterprises do not have irrational competition such as panic selling. If necessary, enterprises can stabilize the market by appropriately increasing product inventories and lowering operating rates.

The price of polyester products is mainly caused by two reasons: on the one hand, the demand for seasonal polyester products is turning off at the end of the peak season; on the other hand, the price of the former chemical fiber products is too fast, partly inhibiting the demand of terminal textile and clothing, resulting in a certain resistance to the pmission of PTA prices to the terminal textile and clothing.

However, some of the above fundamentals have been partially digested in the adjustment process of PTA, so there is no need to overlook the PTA market.

In addition, this year's cotton production continues to yield a certain alternative space for PTA chemical fiber raw materials. Therefore, the rise and fall of cotton prices will have a greater impact on PTA, so investors still need to pay attention to the trend of cotton.

In short, because the key indicators such as next year's credit indicators and CPI November have not yet been released, investors are advised to be cautious about the short-term rebound in the PTA market. The market can pay close attention to whether the 9600 front-line can break through effectively.