Wei Jianguo Explains China's Export Situation Next Year

　　 "China's foreign trade next year is generally not optimistic, and it is expected to drop by 10 to 15 percentage points," Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce, told NetEase finance for China next year. Exit Views on the situation.

First, China's largest trading partner, the European Union, met the financial crisis of five southern European countries, he explained. Second, we also see that the whole US policy of easing and lenient may lead to the rapid rise of our RMB and the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate, which is quite unfavorable for our exports. The shrinking of the market, the rise of the currency, and the increase in the prices of our imported raw materials have a negative impact on export.

about Changing trade The way of development, Wei Jianguo said, does not mean slowing exports or increasing imports to offset trade surplus. China still has very good export advantages, including cheap labor and mature production chains. He said that the transformation of trade development mode should still increase exports, but its quality should be improved. Secondly, Imported We should also strengthen.

In response to the 10 session of the central economic work conference held by Wei Jianguo, he expressed his expectation. He said that the central task of the economic work conference may be to find out where China's next economic growth point is and how to solve China's development mode and the way of economic growth according to China's current development momentum. While maintaining China's strength, we should solve some weak weaknesses in China at present.

He said that the second important thing is inclusive growth, which involves the people involved in harmony, involving environmental protection. Such as eliminating some wage differentials, regional differences, urban and rural differences, and solving the problems commonly concerned by low-income groups and disadvantaged groups at present, these may be a big space in the central economic work conference.

Record:

NetEase Finance: now the central economic work conference, which is more concerned by the market, is also about to start. What do you think is the most important task of our conference?

Looking for China's next economic growth point

Wei Jianguo: I think the central economic work conference may be the most important task is to find out where China's next economic growth point is. And how to solve China's development mode and the way of economic growth according to China's current development momentum. While maintaining China's strength, we are also looking forward to resolving some weak weaknesses in China at present.

The second important thing is inclusive growth, which involves the masses, involves harmony, involves environmental protection, involves foreign countries, this is our key. Eliminate wage differentials, regional differences, and urban-rural differences. To solve the problem of general concern of our low-income groups and disadvantaged groups, I think the central economic work conference may be a big space.

NetEase Finance: for foreign trade, what do you think is the key to the growth of foreign trade during 12th Five-Year?

Wei Jianguo: in 12th Five-Year, the key transformation of foreign trade may be in two aspects. One is to expand our exports simply, and to combine exports with imports. Second, it is very important to introduce foreign capital into foreign investment and go abroad in the past thirty years of reform and opening up. How do I change? I think the two one is to increase the transformation and upgrading of processing trade and go to the high end. Second, increasing the development of service trade is our starting point. If we do not seize the opportunity to transfer the world service trade industry at this time, it is likely that China's foreign trade, especially our whole external economy, will have a big mistake.

The export pattern of next year is not optimistic.

Wei Jianguo: next year's exports are generally not optimistic. It is mainly our biggest trading partner. The European Union is now facing the financial crisis of five southern European countries. Second, we also see that the whole US policy of easing and lenient may lead to the rapid rise of our RMB and the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate, which is quite unfavorable for our exports. The decline of the market, the rise of the currency, and the increase in the prices of our imported raw materials will reduce the total foreign trade by 10 to 15 percentage points in the whole year. {page_break}
 

If we do well, trade in services can compensate 5 percentage points. But the average figure may be much lower than this year.

Wei Jianguo: therefore, as our government, enterprises, especially business organizations, we must see clearly the situation next year and increase some support for foreign trade, because foreign trade, especially processing trade, involves nearly more than 100 million of the employment problem of migrant workers, and also leads to the problems of many small and medium-sized enterprises. We have just returned from the investigation in Zhejiang and Guangdong, and now they can use four words to describe the export of the whole foreign trade next year.

What is expected of the appreciation of the renminbi? They are all worried. There is no long-term order in the hand. At the moment, it should be early that Christmas is over. There should be some long-term orders next year, but not now, three months or five months. In a word, they often tell me that they can't see clearly. This is the overall idea of representing some of our export enterprises as a whole. I can't see clearly. Their confidence in next year's confidence is not enough. So I think next year is a critical moment for foreign trade development.

NetEase Finance: will the overall export growth continue to show a slowing trend during the "12th Five-Year" period?

China should not give up export trade processing advantages easily.

Wei Jianguo: this place needs to clarify a view that China is now a second largest economy. How to treat foreign trade correctly? I am afraid there is a theoretical problem to be solved. It is not to say that slowing exports or increasing imports to offset this trade surplus means that we have driven domestic demand and transformed the whole trade development mode. I think our country is still a very good export advantage, that is, our cheap labor force in China, coupled with our diligence, coupled with our current processing trade in China's upstream and downstream production chain. I think we should have a correct understanding of exports when changing the mode of foreign trade: exports will still increase, but their value should be improved. Not only is the quantity to be improved, but also the value should be improved. Secondly, we must strengthen imports.

NetEase Finance: how do you evaluate the volume and structure of imports this year?

Wei Jianguo: since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of imports has always outpaced export growth. Sometimes even up to 15 to 20 points. I think this is normal, because China does need to import some resource goods, raw material commodities, including some technology trade commodities from abroad. At the beginning of next year, I estimate that imports may increase. Import is increasing. We are good at foreign trade. Because the increase of imports is actually representing the future growth of exports. This is why laymen do not understand what imports are. First, the import growth of our processing trade is going to increase through our added value. We do not need so much in China.

Secondly, after our import, through our imports, we will go out again. It is in the process of importing that we have to prevent some pollution, high consumption and high electricity consumption. I think the central government has made it clear, especially the policy of processing trade. But what is more important is how the import policy is better used in importing, and the country policy is better used.

Japan and Europe are increasing their exports to China

NetEase Finance: is there any substantial progress in the US's liberalization of high-tech exports to China?

Wei Jianguo: according to our understanding, we are studying now, and the United States also feels that Japan, the European Union, has begun to take this step, especially in France. In this regard, it is clear that we hope to be able to let go, so it is still studying, but we do not want it to be loud and raining. Finally, there is no substantial progress. To be honest, the export of high and new technology to China has already lagged behind Japan and the European Union earlier. If it falls behind again, the market will be lost.

NetEase Finance: another topic of comparative concern is the appreciation of the renminbi. I know that before the US House of Representatives passed a bill called "monetary reform to promote the fair trade act". Now it is said to be sent to the Senate to vote. How do you evaluate the pressure of RMB appreciation in this stage? {page_break}
 

Wei Jianguo: if you put the renminbi in a high value, to be honest, it will also be of no interest to you in the US business in China. The renminbi, which says China operates this currency, is actually some American politicians who do not understand China's entry into the market economy. They do not understand that politicians do not understand it. He built it for votes. More importantly, I think the United States is doing this at present, and it will be no good for us to revalue the renminbi. The United States is now a real currency manipulator, printing so many, six hundred billion quantitative easing policy, he came to do this, after he printed it, he depreciated, forced you to appreciate, so he is, so he now does not mention what this is called currency manipulation country. I guess he can't pass the Senate.

Why, because the fact that he is the opposite, and a little commonsense, knows that the United States must not rely on Renminbi appreciation to solve the current financial crisis. The more he fought to the end, the more disappointed the American people were. The renminbi has been rising, but it has not solved this problem.