Cotton Yarn Christmas Worry

In recent years, the whole cotton yarn market has been rather sluggish, although the price is still fairly stable, but the weak market has made Christmas lose its color. Desolate, has been enveloped in the market.

First, Cotton price High, new cotton planting area or increase

Judging from the supply and demand of cotton market, the cotton gap still exists. According to the statistics of China's cotton reserve management company, the quality and yield of cotton have been adversely affected due to the disaster of cotton sowing during this year, such as low temperature and continuous heavy rainfall. In 2010, the cotton planting area in China was 5 million 46 thousand hectares, a decrease of 1.1% over the previous year. The output per unit area was 1260 kg / ha, a decrease of 4.4%, and the total output of 6 million 360 thousand tons was reduced by 5.5%. The gap between 6 million 360 thousand tons and annual consumption of tens of millions of tons is continuing.

However, the gap between supply and demand has been alleviated by the increase in other countries' production. According to international cotton The latest report released by the Advisory Committee (ICAC) in December 1st showed that although the global economy is expected to grow strongly, cotton textile production will remain stable at 24 million 600 thousand tons in 2010/11, subject to limited cotton supply and high prices. In 2009/10, global cotton inventories fell 25%, only 8 million 900 thousand tons, the lowest level in nearly seven years. However, the end of 2010/11 inventory is expected to grow to 9 million 300 thousand tons. In addition, the global inventory consumption ratio will increase from 36% in 2009/10 to 38% in 2010/11, but it is still significantly lower than the average in 10 years, or 48%.

In addition, from the perspective of cotton circulation, most of the cotton resources in the market are still concentrated. Processing factory Many cotton seeds in Hebei, Henan and Hubei are concentrated in the hands of cotton growers. According to the survey, about 30% of the seed cotton is still kept in the hands of cotton growers, and about 20% of the lint stored in the processing plants. Because of climate reasons, the output of new cotton has been reduced and the grade has been reduced compared with the previous years. And because of the huge price increase, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell their goods. This makes the situation of raw material supply shortage worse. However, many textile mills are not worried. 2-3 months' stock reserves keep 100% of the starting lines of Wei Qiao, Huafang and Taifeng.

In addition, from the perspective of new cotton planting in 2011, because of the high cotton price and the stimulation of income, the cotton planting area in China is expected to rise to a large extent this year. In addition, the southern hemisphere is currently in the seeding stage. Due to the rising cotton prices and adequate rainfall, the enthusiasm of cotton growers in Australian cotton growers is high. Cotton farmers even intend to grow upland cotton this year. This is the first time in more than 10 years. It is estimated that Australia's cotton planting area and unit production will increase this year, and cotton output will exceed the most recent forecast, reaching a record high. At present, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) has increased Australian cotton production to 762 thousand tons, second only to the highest 805 thousand tons in 2000. It is estimated that Australia's cotton exports will reach a record high of 9 years this year.

Two, the profit is high, the callback space is bigger.

At present, many enterprises are complaining about a lot of things. However, from the beginning of the year, the spot price of grade 3 lint was 15500 yuan, and the price of 32S cotton combed yarn was less than 25000 yuan at that time. And the current price? 3 grade lint rose 12000 yuan to 27500 yuan / ton, while 32S cotton combed yarn rose 18000-20000 yuan / ton to 43000-45000 yuan / ton. According to the loss of 3 grade lint and combed cotton yarn to 15%, the cost of 12000 yuan cotton is converted to cotton yarn cost is only 13800 yuan / ton, and the textile factory has a profit of 5000 yuan / ton on the basis of profit at the beginning of the year.

Cotton yarn began to rise sharply since last October, and the daily rise of thousands of yuan was more common. Although the profit of cotton yarn in October was almost at a loss, however, after several crazy rises, the profits of cotton yarn were abundant. According to the current price of 27500 yuan / ton, plus 15% combing loss and 6000 yuan processing charge, the cost of 32S cotton combed yarn is only 37500 yuan / ton, compared with the mainstream price in the market, the profit is over 5000 yuan. Although the price of cotton yarn has dropped a lot earlier than the previous high, but the market bearish sentiment is strong, and many small factories have also set a low price of 39000 yuan / ton, and the high profit has also been recognized by the market, and the price of cotton yarn is difficult to rise.

Three, the downstream market is weak, and the market is watching.

The cotton yarn Market in November has gone through "ice and fire". In the first half of the month, as the downstream textile mills were worried about the further rise of cotton yarn, many manufacturers adopted the strategy of purchasing cotton yarn ahead of time to lock in profits. However, changes in wind and rain, the policy blow not only brought a heavy blow to cotton, but also the cotton yarn market is weak. However, due to the large amount of purchase in the early stage, the stock of cotton yarn in many fabric enterprises has been greatly increased, which can fully meet the production needs of enterprises for several months, and it is no longer necessary to purchase cotton yarns in the short term. Another part of the manufacturers that are not buying much yarn at the early stage are facing the demand for replenishment. This has brought about a large number of recent enquiries, and some small bills have also been fragmentary. The purchase volume has begun to pick up slightly, but that is only a temporary replenishment sheet. The stock of the mill is still increasing. {page_break}
 

In addition, the failure of cotton yarn also brought a serious blow to downstream textile enterprises, and cotton fabrics began to be unsalable. According to a big factory in Henan, the price of cotton cloth is still high, but the discount rate is increasing. However, there are very few enquiries and orders. At present, the weak environment is flooding the whole market, and there are only a few customers in the market. Shandong Liaocheng, Henan Xinye, Shandong Yuncheng, Hebei Gaoyang, Henan Xinye and other areas are facing arrears and default. In addition, the market is watching more strongly. Many small factories have begun to shut down and wait for their plans in the years to come. The textile factories above Designated Size, such as Shandong, Xinye, and Zhili, can also guarantee the basic starting up, mainly because the initial orders are still maintained, but shipments have dropped significantly, and the number of enquiries from downstream customers has been greatly reduced. At present, the market shipments are deteriorating, and in the face of the "passive" situation of weakening demand, shortage of orders and price callbacks, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Many fabric manufacturers plan to shut down and shut down in advance, so that they will make plans for the stable market next year. And the feedback from dyeing factories also shows the existence of a weak market. All cotton knitted cotton knitted cotton knitted cotton fabrics, such as cotton c/c clothing and accessories, have been lowered in price, whether they are finished or finished products, and the market turnover is hardly optimistic.

Four, summary

At present, there are very few orders for cotton mills in the lower reaches. Many manufacturers have begun or are ready to stop the new year, while the importing cotton is also facing the influence of foreign exchange due to the expiry of the letter of credit. Many hedging cotton traders are selling cotton at a low price. Now, the cotton price of 3 grade cotton and cotton in India is near 27000 yuan, and the price of imported cotton continues to fall. In addition, the cotton spot market is also slow due to the low season at the end of the year, and the market turnover is slow. In addition, many large cotton textile enterprises have acquired enough cotton, and the purchase of cotton in the short term is not positive. At the same time, the high profit of cotton yarn has also been recognized by the market. In addition, in December, the market demand was greatly reduced due to the traditional textile off-season. It is expected that under the stimulation of multiple negative factors, the weakness of whole cotton yarn will continue, and there will be room for further price reduction.