Brewing The Next Round Of Rebound In Weak Adjustment

Because the market is waiting for the November economic data to come out and the Central Committee.

From the domestic perspective, the expectation of austerity still exists.

First of all, the central bank has not yet adjusted the price of funds, which appears to be very cautious about raising interest rates. However, the market generally guesses that raising interest rates or raising the deposit reserve ratio in the near future is a psychological shock to the cautious market.

Secondly, when the market is waiting for the sensitive moment of the central economic work conference, the National Bureau of statistics announces the release of macroeconomic data in advance, which obviously exacerbates the market's concern about the further tightening of macroeconomic policy.

We believe that the market's response to policy tightening has been excessive.

In the short term, the gradual return of monetary policy from moderate easing to a healthy level will have a certain impact on market liquidity.

But for a long time, the actual monetary policy still depends on the changes in the economic situation and adequate flexibility in accordance with the trend of domestic inflation, so as to ensure steady economic growth.

As for the interest rate increase which investors are worried about, we think it is not enough: if interest rate rises, the expectation of bad profits will be fulfilled as scheduled, investors' worries will ease off. If we do not raise interest rates, the possibility of raising interest rates will be greatly reduced in the light of the CPI slowdown in December, the sustained and effective policy regulation and the government's cautious attitude.

In addition, a series of positive economic data, such as the PMI in Europe and the United States and the import and export data in November, have increased investors' anticipation of a stronger recovery in the global economy, which means that the possibility of continued global stock market growth will increase at the next stage.

From the present point of view, the expected growth of economic growth, the Fed's asset purchase concerns and fiscal deficits, the bull market in the US and European bond markets is likely to turn gradually. We expect more capital to flow into the stock market in the future, and the A share market is facing many favorable factors.

Brewing a new round of adjustment in the adjustment pattern

On the whole, the A share market is facing more and more positive factors, but the internal policy regulation is still expected to continue.

On the one hand, driven by positive global economic data, there is a certain rebound demand for A shares, but on the other hand, before the boots arrive, the anticipation of policy regulation is still uncertain, and investors' mentality is cautious.

At this stage, A shares have a certain degree of rationality in terms of pressure and adjustment.

In the short term, the gap in the Shanghai composite index is not filled, and the rate of increase in interest rate or the reserve requirement rate is not expected to be realized. The real estate regulation is expected to rise, which will lead to a fundamental easing of market anxiety.

However, we believe that the market has overreaction to monetary policy tightening. Once the sensitive time window is over, the technical rebound will be triggered at any moment.

From the perspective of specific investment patterns, the positive sector at the end of the year will fully reflect the expectations of institutional investors on the handover of valuation level, which is likely to become a hot market in the coming year.

Therefore, it is suggested that investors should pay attention to the clear equipment manufacturing sector such as railway equipment and nuclear power equipment in the medium and long term.