People Say ICE Cotton: Good Cash &Nbsp; Cotton City Rush Down.
The rush rate of high school is stronger than that of the surrounding commodities.
Important report released last weekend, China policy conference, international stock market
commodity market
The ups and downs were different. Among them, stocks, metals, copper and soft goods continued to rise, and agricultural products declined. ICE cotton hit 140 cents a day, and then fell back.
Released by the United States last weekend
economic data
相對利好,其中美10月貿易赤字387億元,環比大幅縮減,主要得益于出口強勁增長3.2%,對華赤字減少,超市場預期,12月美消費者信心指數初值為74.2,超預期,USDA公布的包括大豆、小麥、玉米以及棉花的月度供需報告中性偏多,中國周五晚間提高法定存款準備金率,周末公布CPI數據超預期達到5.1%,同時中央經濟工作會議召開,部署明年6項主要任務,從一系列動作看,提高準備金率很可能是加息的前兆,不可對政策的預期過分放松;棉花基本面上,USDA公布的供需月報較預期調整幅度偏小,其中美棉產量微調低3萬噸至398萬噸,期末庫存調低6.5萬噸至41萬噸,中國、印度數據幾乎無調整,全球期末庫存微幅調增26萬噸至945萬噸,中性偏多,后期繼續調整留下空間,另外CFTC公布的持倉報告顯示,截至12月7日一周,棉花總持倉止步縮減步伐,但投機空頭增持明顯,凈多頭率
It dropped 1.8 percentage points to 18.28% a week ago.
Zheng cotton opened for a long time last weekend to shake up the arrangement, and more than an hour before the end of the afternoon, domestic commodities were strengthening.
Zheng cotton
Follow up, high in the day, but the sharp decline in positions, empty seats have been reduced, the middle hand frequent, low market position is supported by the spot, the relative decline is relatively limited, the fundamentals, the downstream market is still mainly trapped in product inventory sales sluggish, textile enterprises complement the will of the library is relatively enhanced, the overall market volume is still not strong.
Generally speaking, interval thinking keeps pace with rapid adjustment, maintaining trend absorption operation, or temporarily watching.
(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)
USDA monthly good news to cash in ICE cotton rush down
Friday's USDA report raised global cotton production and inventories, while reducing global consumption showed signs of high cotton prices inhibiting consumption, but the US stock dropped to 410 thousand tons of good cotton, which led to a sharp surge in cotton during the ICE term on Friday. The contract reached a maximum of 140.95 cents per pound in March, ending up 1.02 cents to 136.97 cents / pound. After some cash gains were made, the cotton prices fell, but overall supply and demand, especially in China, remained tight. This will support cotton prices, and the rebound trend in ICE cotton did not change.
Technically, on Friday, the ICE cotton rush rate fell down and the small Yang closed, the cotton price stabilized on the short-term average line, the short-term average line turned upward, while the KD and MACD index continued to rise, the MACD index red column began to grow, the market increased kinetic energy increased, and the rally is expected to continue.
The expected rate hike in the market is still unsettled. In the early days of the CPI announcement, the Chinese government raised the reserve requirement by 50 basis points to 18.5% in order to replace the market expected rate hike. In November, CPI reached 5.1%, while the central economic work conference decided to stabilize prices next year.
The above policy is the main reason for maintaining the weakness of Zhengzhou cotton in the past week. After the policy pressure is fulfilled, there will be no pressure from the policy in the short-term market. The cotton price will rise at a higher probability of over 27000 yuan per ton.
The rise of cotton will slow down, and cotton market will show weak adjustment later.
ICE cotton futures rose sharply last Friday.
The United States Department of agriculture report is expected to be more profitable, prices will rise after opening, the March contract opened slightly higher, the market began to rise slightly after the beginning of a slight decline, reaching the highest limit, but after a sharp fall, eventually rose 102 points, to close at 1.3697 U.S. dollars.
The recent rise in prices has also benefited from the tight cotton supply situation. The US Department of agriculture report shows that the US cotton inventory at the end of this year is estimated to be 1 million 900 thousand packages, significantly lower than the estimated 2 million 200 thousand packages in November, and the US cotton output is slightly down.
This report is related to the slight rise in global cotton production, and the reduction in consumption and the slight increase in inventory at the end of the year. This is a negative side. This may be the reason why some investors have made profits and the price has dropped from the price limit.
From the current point of view, Lido information has basically been exhausted. Apart from the current supply and demand side, the market is hard to sustain the price increase, and the cotton price rise is expected to slow down.
The cotton market is strong and weak with strong external strength.
Last Friday, in the face of the strong trading limit of ICE cotton futures, Zheng cotton futures barely rose. Overall, ICE cotton futures rose 3.5% last week, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell last week. In recent months, the contract price declined slightly due to spot prices, while the market was weaker than expected in the far months.
The characteristics of the market and the domestic economic policy situation are of great concern. In the face of the economic data released on Saturday, November, the parties are expected to be unfavourable, cautious in performance, less in positions held by Zheng cotton, and partly in risk aversion.
In addition, although the spot performance is relatively strong, but the downstream cotton yarn inventory pressure increased, sales sluggish, some yarn companies began to cut prices.
At present, the cotton market is weak and stable. It is not expected that there will be a big downward trend in the short term.
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