2011 Macroeconomic Outlook Investment Opportunities

Cathay

Xia fund company said that China's economic growth has huge internal driving force, and there are many investment and consumption factors.

First of all, China's economy as a whole has huge room for domestic demand growth. Urbanization and industrialization are advancing rapidly, with per capita income of just over 3700 dollars, which is at a stage of rapid consumption growth.

Second, the balance sheets of the government, banks, enterprises and residents have performed well, providing a more solid foundation for investment and consumption.

In terms of international trade, China's export competitiveness is still strong. Import and export this year has been better than market expectations, and there has been a slowdown in the near future.

As exports to emerging markets grow strongly, overall export growth can still be maintained at around 15%.

While the total volume has changed, China's export structure has also undergone great changes: the proportion of capital goods has been rising sharply, and the proportion of consumer goods has dropped significantly, reflecting the escalation of China's industry and the shift of global manufacturing center to China.

In terms of the policy factors that affect the investment in the coming year, the Huaxia Fund Company believes that the overall keynote of the policy includes the implementation of the "prudent" monetary policy and the "positive" fiscal policy mix, the tightening of monetary and credit targets, and the reserve ratio as a major quantitative tool. There may still be room for more interest rate increases and a significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate next year.

For the general direction of future investment, the Chinese Fund believes that the ten tasks of the 12th Five-Year plan have great guiding significance.

These ten tasks include expanding domestic demand, promoting agricultural modernization, enhancing the competitiveness of industrial structure, promoting coordinated regional development, accelerating the pformation of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, revitalizing the country through science and education and the strategy of building a powerful country with talents, strengthening the basic public service system, promoting the development of culture and culture, improving the socialist market economic system, and implementing a mutually beneficial and win-win open strategy.

Among them, the top eight tasks are of great directive significance to the industry investment next year or longer.