Zhou Xiaochuan: The Pool Is External Storage &Nbsp; The Standard Of Money Supply Is The Core CPI.
Governor of central bank
Zhou Xiao Sichuan
The "Chi Zi" theory, which triggered a lot of discussions in November, yesterday, for the first time, he explained positively that the typical pool is foreign exchange reserves, and he believes that the money supply has increased significantly in the past two years.
Money supply
The core is the core.
CPI
。
Zhou Xiaochuan made the above explanation at the Peking University on the evening of 15.
He said that there are different plates to the foreign exchange reserve, which can also be divided into different pools, some of which are guaranteed to be imported and exported. Some are prepared for the dividends of foreign-funded enterprises; others are prepared for "hot money". After they come in, the Central Bank of the 100% sides will be washed away, and the total amount should not have a negative impact on the national economy, but we have not prevented them from making money from the individual.
On the issue of excessive money, Zhou Xiaochuan said, on the one hand, the proportion of generalized money to GDP in high savings countries and low savings countries is different. China is a high savings country, so M2 occupies a high proportion of GDP.
On the other hand, when the proportion of indirect financing is high, the proportion of broad money to GDP is high. The United States is a typical developed country with direct financing, while China's indirect financing is more important than that of the United States. Therefore, it is not appropriate to take China's M2 ratio to the US.
He believes that we must clearly define the concept of "super development".
The super economic issue of money is the concept of traditional planned economy, because the price is fixed at that time, and the price multiplied by physical quantity is money demand.
At the same time, there was no financial market and service market at that time, so there was a problem if the concept was used at that time.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that the standard of measuring the money supply is the core CPI.
Money supply has increased significantly in recent two years, but the aim is to cope with the financial crisis.
In order to deal with the crisis, we must adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, and call for punching and speeding.
The use of monetary policy can not be overshoot or overshoot. The key is that once this cycle is found to enter the inflection point, it is necessary to change direction in a timely manner so that it is not too excessive. On the one hand, it achieves the effect of successfully combating the crisis, while the side effects are not too big, and it will be pulled back again after a while.
On specific measures, he said that the economic situation should be taken into account when adjusting the provision rate. In the worse economic cycle, the deposit reserve ratio should be lowered, while in the period of better economic conditions, the deposit reserve ratio should be raised and more capital accumulated.
In addition, we need some measures to promote the management of financial institutions and large commercial banks and prevent systemic risks. Improving the deposit reserve is one of the countermeasures.
This year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions for the six time.
In addition, the central bank also raised the deposit reserve ratio in October 13th to six banks, including ICBC, ABC, China Central Bank, CCB, China Merchants, and people's livelihood.
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