Can Xinjiang Afford The Weight Of China'S Cotton?

Xinjiang occupies a pivotal position in China's cotton industry. In the face of the unusual fluctuation of cotton market this year, we can not help asking: who is benefiting from the loss of cotton prices?

How can the cotton industry of Xinjiang play a role in stabilizing the domestic cotton market? For this reason, I interviewed Zhang Wenmin, senior analyst of cotton futures in Zhengzhou commodity exchange and director of cotton research and development center of Wanda Futures Company, trying to answer the above questions.

Can Xinjiang afford China?

This year, China's cotton industry has experienced a special year of cotton production and cotton prices soaring.

In the face of the tight supply of cotton resulting from the rapid development of the textile industry, the cotton industry has always been debated whether to "fill in" or "make up the deficiency".

Xinjiang cotton is a symbol of high quality cotton in China. Xinjiang cotton industry occupies a pivotal position in China's cotton industry chain.

So in the future development strategy of China's cotton industry, can Xinjiang play a greater role? For this reason, I interviewed Zhang Wenmin, senior analyst of cotton futures in Zhengzhou commodity exchange and Xinjiang director of cotton research and development center of Wanda Futures Company for a long time.

Zhang Wenmin believes that the continuous rise of cotton prices in the international and domestic markets in the 2010 cotton year has made Xinjiang's cotton industry and cotton growers the biggest regional beneficiaries, and the cotton industry has achieved the best operating results in history.

In 2010, the output of cotton in Xinjiang was 2 million 600 thousand tons, accounting for 40% of the 6 million 300 thousand tons in the whole country and 11% of the world's 25 million 100 thousand tons. Cotton income accounted for 60% of the per capita income of Xinjiang farmers. According to the average price of 26000-30000 yuan per ton, the cotton direct output value of Xinjiang reached 60 billion yuan -700 billion yuan, a historical record; the comprehensive income of cotton growers in Xinjiang increased by 50%-80% compared with the same period last year, but this must be realized through hedging of futures market.

Zhang Wenmin said that in 2010-2015 years, China will be net cotton.

In the face of the problem of "taking production to fill the vacancy" or "filling in the deficiency", he thinks cotton production and marketing self balance is more active. Therefore, Xinjiang must become the key cotton growing area in China to make up for the growing demand and supply gap of cotton.

The average yield of cotton in Xinjiang is 128 kilograms, and the Corps is 150 kilograms, which is much higher than the average output of 87 kilograms per mu in the whole country.

In most cotton producing areas in China, the planting area is decreasing year after year, and the comparative benefit of cotton planting is lower than that of other agricultural products. The task of making up the gap between supply and demand of cotton will be mainly borne by Xinjiang.

Zhang Wenmin, who has been engaged in cotton futures research for many years, knows well about the development of Xinjiang's cotton industry.

He said that Xinjiang is China and the world's best quality hand picked cotton, long staple cotton, medium and long staple cotton, colored cotton, ecological cotton production area.

After more than ten years of continuous development, Xinjiang's cotton industry has become one of the pillar industries of Xinjiang's national economic development.

Xinjiang development

It is understood that in 2009-2010, there were 593 cotton ginning plants in Xinjiang for national cotton inspection and physical examination, and 2 million 460 thousand tons of large cotton bales in public inspection, accounting for 50% and 71% of the country's total respectively.

Zhang Wenmin optimistically predicts that after 2010, the number of large cotton bales will be maintained at more than 2 million 300 thousand tons in Xinjiang, and the proportion will exceed 95%, which will provide enough high-quality supply for cotton futures business.

In 2011-2015 years, the annual output of cotton in Xinjiang is 2 million 600 thousand -300 million tons, and the direct output value is 60 billion -700 billion yuan.

However, it is worth noting that the government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will organize the implementation of the national and Xinjiang cotton industry long-term development outline, the establishment of a national cotton industry overall planning system, the establishment of the national and Xinjiang level cotton reserves, cotton imports of cotton resources base and independent management channels, ease the pportation difficulties of Xinjiang cotton and so on.

Whether these work can be effectively implemented is the key to the role of Xinjiang cotton.

During the "12th Five-Year" period, Xinjiang will further optimize the industrial structure of agriculture, and jointly with the mainland cotton logistics companies and large and medium-sized textile enterprises, the Xinjiang cotton business will be exposed to the cotton trading market in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and other provinces, forming Xinjiang cotton in the Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Sichuan and other cotton main sales provinces and cities warehousing, pportation and sales network.

In addition, the comprehensive operation of cotton spot, futures and matching will also promote the efficient and stable development of Xinjiang's cotton industry.