Exchange Rate "Big Shift" &Nbsp; &Nbsp; Emerging Market Currencies Lead The World.

Armed with their own shopping lists for the upcoming New Year holidays at home.

"Let the money fly", European shopkeepers are also thrilled to find that their sales are rising steadily, and Christmas gifts go hand in hand.

The only unhappy group is that only the eldest of the euro zone members are suffering from the euro's entire derogatory attitude, and their credibility is being tested.

So what will happen next year? A debate has begun.

Some speculators bet commodities will rise for third years in a row, and commodity currencies will benefit. Meanwhile, some foreign exchange investors bet on this year's long bear dollar will strengthen in 2011.

Emerging market currencies lead the world

The foreign exchange market in 2010 began with the euro zone's widespread debt crisis and the huge depreciation of the US dollar.

For those luxury stores in Europe and America, consumers from emerging markets have become their best Christmas gifts.

According to a report released by Bain, a consultancy, in November, overseas consumers, including consumers such as China, helped boost the luxury sector in Europe, making their sales revenue up 6% year-on-year this year, down 9% from 2009.

Behind the increase in purchasing power is the outstanding performance of currencies in the Asia Pacific and some emerging markets.

According to Bloomberg data, as of the 23 Asian markets, six of the top ten currencies of the year's top ten came from emerging markets. The total returns of currencies such as South African rand, Brazil, Real, Thai baht, Indonesia rupee, Mexico pesos and India rupees rose from 9.31% to 16.23% this year.

In the remaining four currencies, the three largest currency comes from the Asia Pacific region.

Among them, the Australian dollar has risen by 16.86% against the US dollar this year. It is the best player in the world's major currencies.

Malaysia's ringgit and Japanese yen ranked fourth and five respectively in terms of 12.87% and 12.07% respectively.

40 years ago, the US government vowed that the $100 banknote would be the highest denomination of banknotes.

But this year, the Federal Reserve has to revisit the US dollar in order to save money from the recession, and the US government's budget deficit keeps expanding.

The US dollar is also declining. This year, the US dollar index has risen by only 3.6%, far less than the emerging market currencies.

In Europe, from Greece to Ireland, to Spain and Portugal, the European debt crisis continues to ferment, causing investors to sniff "Europe".

In the Bloomberg global currency performance decline list, the euro controlled the position of the second place with a negative 7.80% return, showing only Yu Dan, mclran, which has dropped to 7.97% this year.

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Looking forward to 2011 dollar merchandise "turtle and rabbit race"?

Regulators in Europe and the United States have shown signs of "uneasy" for currencies that are not performing well in their own countries or regions.

A senior European policymaker even openly admitted that "from last winter to this summer, it is very difficult to find people who feel uneasy about the weakening of the euro, because this is a key factor in our export prosperity."

The dollar also plummeted in the face of management's laissez faire situation.

The performance of US dollar and commodity currencies is like that of tortoise and rabbit.

But will regulators around the world be willing to maintain this situation? Obviously, Asian countries have adopted foreign exchange control measures in recent months to limit the increase of their currencies. From such a rising cry, it is easy to see that the foreign exchange pattern in 2011 will be pformed.

A debate about commodity currencies and the dollar also started.

The Thomson Reuters / Jeffrey CRB index, which tracks commodities, climbed 1.8% to 320.62 last week, the highest level since October 2008.

Cotton prices have nearly doubled this year, and silver prices hit a 30 year high, with coffee prices reaching a new high since 1997.

According to the existing data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the index of net bullish positions for hedge funds and other big investment institutions rose to 1 million 535 thousand in December 7th, hitting the highest level since at least February 2006.

However, commodity currencies must also be careful because they are too proud to lose the race with tortoise.

According to the purchasing power parity data calculated according to the CPI, the Australian dollar has been overvalued by about 31%, ranking first in the ten currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and 22.08% and 15.62% respectively in New Zealand and Canada.

Bloomberg forecasts that by the end of the two quarter of next year, the performance of the pound and the euro is expected to surpass the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, and the rate of return will reach 4.16% and 1.92% respectively. The New Zealand dollar will become the most promising currency in the first half of next year, and the rate of return will reach 5.14%.

On the contrary, the US dollar may benefit from the risk aversion brought by the European debt crisis.

At the end of the year, economists are still debating over the European debt crisis. One problem for Euro stewardships is that they can not withstand the blaze of fire. At the end of last month, the European Union announced that it had invested 85 billion euros to rescue Ireland, and the cost of sovereign borrowing continued to rise.

David Rosenberg, chief economist of Fortune Management Inc Gluskin Sheff, predicts that the dollar index will rise by 10% in the next six months as the European debt crisis spreads from Greece and Ireland to Portugal and Spain.

Hedge funds and other big investors are betting that the US dollar's strong position will climb to its highest level since September 10th this month.