Sun Lijian: The Three Pressures Facing Our Economy This Year.

However, because the main battlefield of economic and financial globalization will shift from the economically dynamic Europe and the developed countries to a large number of emerging market countries with huge economic scale and high growth and high savings. Therefore, the above-mentioned policy combination supporting the economic development will highlight the difficulties and variables of various government regulation because of the external strong shocks and the side effects of the "shock" caused by the defects of our own institutional system. For example, in today's environment where the appreciation of the currency is accelerating and the effect of structural adjustment is not obvious, the phenomenon of "false fire and strong fire" is very prominent.

The "hot money" has been mixed with the large number of "idle" industrial capital that has been concentrated in the financial market and the savings fund of restless consumers under inflation expectation. It has pushed up the pressure of inflation and asset bubble expansion in China, and made the central macroeconomic regulation and control policy combination force have to be repeated. Such a series of "strong" external pressures of "hedging" will, in turn, increase the pressure of our own structural adjustment in accordance with the 12th Five-Year plan, and ensure the smooth macroeconomic control of the reform.

To this end, at the beginning of the new year, I want to sort out the three major issues that deserve further attention and in-depth study according to some preliminary experiences in this stage.

　　首先，最大的外部壓力是金融大海嘯后美元主導(dǎo)的國際貨幣體系正在隨著美國政府“國家利益至上”的寬松量化貨幣政策和美國經(jīng)濟實力依然表現(xiàn)出疲軟、不確定的惡劣狀況不斷變得“長期化”的時候而開始越來越明顯的在發(fā)生可怕的“裂變”：全球金融資本已開始不安心將自己的財富在繼續(xù)放在一個沒有“貨幣錨”(美元放水引起的價值疲軟的特征)支撐的金融資產(chǎn)中，甚至避險時所需要的美國國債持有量最近也在被市場大量地減持，其中，有很多金融資本從理論上講早應(yīng)該在這場泡沫經(jīng)濟看似崩潰的“大洗盤”中銷聲匿跡，可是因為歐美政府(受到影響的其他國家也一樣)擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟硬著陸給自己政權(quán)穩(wěn)定所造成的壓力而不得不花血本去救助這些金融資本，最后讓我們看到今天這些復(fù)活的流動性，請注意是“存量”復(fù)活，而可能不一定是目前被社會指責(zé)的歐美政

The amount of money that the government has done for the limited amount of money has become unscrupulous, and they have had a huge negative impact on us.

For example, the resulting large depreciation of the US dollar will "wash away" the value of US debt to China and increase the management cost of our US dollar increase in new export investment.

Moreover, the US dollar value continues to drop, making the relative scale of our exchange rate appreciation become more and more difficult to grasp. This year's Canton Fair and many commercial forums, we have noticed that import and export enterprises are hard to place orders.

Previously said enterprises themselves have the ability to adjust the appreciation of the exchange rate is also greatly reduced.

In addition, the weakness of the US dollar has not only led to a high gold level, but also to our anxiety that a large amount of capital flowing out of the financial market is now starting to kidnap the upstream resources of industrial production, which is becoming more and more expensive for the developing countries that invest mainly in the creation of wealth. Unconsciously, we will notice that the business of the main business is becoming less and less, and the "credit to price" advantage of Chinese products is being artificially suppressed.

Please note that China's trade structure reminds us that our exports will decrease while imports will also decrease.

而中美貿(mào)易不平衡、或美國貿(mào)易逆差格局——只要美國的消費方式和投資方式從根本上不改變——就并不會發(fā)生多大的實質(zhì)性的變化!除了實體經(jīng)濟面的負(fù)面影響外，流出歐美市場的大量資金，再加上現(xiàn)在資金借貸成本因為歐美利率這么低會變得越來越小，今后流出的資金規(guī)模只要不發(fā)生突發(fā)事件也就會變得越來越多，他們選擇流到的地方都有一些共同的特征：那就是高儲蓄、高增長、甚至市場低效率而不斷變得高開放的新興市場國家!而世界第二大經(jīng)濟體的中國理所當(dāng)然就成為了這一輪全球金融資本首選的對象，它們的到來，已經(jīng)造成了包括中國在內(nèi)的很多這類特征的國家投機行為猖獗——被光顧的資源型產(chǎn)品市場價格不斷高企，而有些國家和地區(qū)至今為止樓市或股市還在脫離基本面的飛漲。

Therefore, the pressure of China's macroeconomic regulation and control is very huge. Zhou Xiaochuan's recent "pool theory" is a prominent performance.

Many Japanese scholars have so far been deeply concerned that the US "forced" yen appreciation has led to Japan's (competitive) industry hollowing out and "financial speculation" of financial bubbles. In fact, it is the most spicy tactic of "squeezing you crazy" by the United States to "squeeze out" its competitors.

At the beginning of 2010, the fate of the euro could be exactly the same.

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In short, we need to think about the us temporarily abandoning the negative impact of the "monetary anchor" function on China and the "I oriented" coping strategy, including the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate.

Otherwise, our blind passive confrontation will eventually lead the us to the "Crazy" level as Japan did in the past.

　　其次，目前中國經(jīng)濟所面臨的通脹問題(美國的通縮問題也是一樣)和以前中國歷次所遇到的通脹問題性質(zhì)上不完全一樣，比如，90年代初期是因為短缺經(jīng)濟造成的，前兩年通脹是經(jīng)濟過熱造成的，而今年我們遇到的壓力是增加了新的內(nèi)容：由于經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展主要是靠政府在積極推動，所以，大量產(chǎn)業(yè)資本，尤其是民營資本因為今天擅長做生意的國際舞臺并沒有重新開張，而新的舞臺又沒有機會和條件去發(fā)揮能力，從而不得不被迫“閑置”了下來，另一方面，國企和央企雖然沒有流動性的約束但由于追求商業(yè)利潤的動機不亞于民營資本，所以，他們雖然沒有像民營資本那樣，“很干脆地”成批成批向金融資本轉(zhuǎn)變，但是它們的資金規(guī)模和民營資本不是在一個起跑線上，所以，在金融市場上屢屢打“擦邊球”的投機行為(常常被包裝)給中國經(jīng)濟造成的負(fù)面影響

It will not be smaller than private capital.

Therefore, as soon as possible, we should change the supporting mode of the government's "blood pfusion" economic development as soon as possible, and build up the market's vitality of "blood generating" economic development through measures such as continuous improvement of system construction and government's in place public service as soon as possible. This is the key element to solve the current structural inflation of China's economy from the root.

Otherwise, in accordance with the usual regulation of inflation, there may be a great negative effect. Even because of the long absence of market vitality caused by excessive government intervention and the continuous huge financial burden of the government, the cost of our sustainable development model will become bigger and bigger. The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations will also accumulate in the future. (the recent "persistent downturn" of stock market may have a great relationship with the lack of "market vitality" in the real economy. Otherwise, there will be plenty of social capital and there is no reason why the market will not rise.

Third, the United States' financial tsunami and the global government's rescue methods make the inequality of income distribution among regions, industries and classes become more and more serious.

Although countries differ in degree and their formation mechanisms are quite different, this makes the social foundation for repairing the economic trauma very fragile.

Both the US health care reform system and the reform of Japan's social welfare system have encountered unprecedented obstacles. Let alone rely on this pattern of income distribution imbalance to boost domestic consumption demand.

China is no exception. The development support and reform and adjustment of the income redistribution mechanism between the central and western regions are all very complex projects, which not only take time but also need wisdom and conceptual innovation consciousness.

However, if we can not find an effective way of governance in time, the internal pressure of China's economic reform will become bigger and bigger as the problem of inequality of income distribution becomes more and more serious.

For example, because wealth is more concentrated on the owners of capital, the talents and capital needed by structural adjustment will become increasingly scarce and more expensive. Moreover, the ethics and spirit of the enterprisers who share the hardships and hardships will become more and more distorted.

In order to form the "capital" needed to become rich as soon as possible, people will desperately save (including financial investment), eager for quick success and instant benefits, and even some officials take risks, corrupt and corrupt.

In short, solving the problem of inequality of income distribution can not be simply regarded as a simple economic problem, nor is it a question of how much money is allocated. Of course, even today, the system of basic guarantee of equal pay for equal work and excessive labor has not been fully constructed in some places. This really causes the public to show great dissatisfaction with this problem, and this tendency can also be seen from the recent dialogue between netizens and Premier Wen.

However, we should also see that today's income inequality is more reflected in the inequality of opportunity, because it is a special status, because the family is rich, so that many capable young people have been squeezed out of the normal track of their own ability to become rich.

Therefore, in 12th Five-Year, in order to achieve the goal of "inclusive growth", we should quickly come up with a set of effective measures to deal with the problem of "inequality of income distribution", which may include political, economic, legal, cultural and ethical areas.