In 2011, The Growth Target Of China'S Import And Export Volume Was 10%.

According to the foreign trade system, the Ministry of Commerce has set the target of increasing import and export volume in 2011 to 10%, and hopes that the growth rate of imports will be faster than the growth rate of exports.

"According to this estimate, export growth is expected to be less than 10% this year."

The source said that the current

The target of foreign trade growth in key provinces and cities is also clear.

This newspaper learned that the target of import and export growth proposed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other export provinces is also around 10%, the only export city, Guangdong is expected to increase by 7.3%.

The total trade volume of these provinces and Shanghai accounts for about 70% of the whole country.

An official of Guangdong's foreign trade system said that behind the goal of low growth, it implied the intention of structural adjustment. "Only by slowing down the growth can we make room for the adjustment of foreign trade structure".

In fact, this is also this year.

Conservative 10%

Foreign trade can not drop, but do not increase substantially.

At the end of 12 last year, Zijin Mountain, Vice Minister of Commerce and foreign trade, made a clear presentation of the three major tasks of China's foreign trade in the near and middle term after a high-level report at the national business conference.

These three tasks in turn are to maintain steady growth in foreign trade, strive for a basically balanced trade and enhance the quality and efficiency of foreign trade development.

Zijin Mountain also said that the growth of China's foreign trade should be higher than the overall growth level of Global trade and higher than the level of China's national economic growth. "According to the requirements of these two" higher than "requirements, China's foreign trade growth in 2011 should maintain two digits.

Interpretation of the foregoing foreign trade system, the so-called "steady growth" means that "foreign trade can not fall, but do not increase substantially."

The target of 10% foreign trade growth is also consistent with the initial growth period of foreign trade "12th Five-Year plan".

According to the news that this newspaper has obtained earlier, the "12th Five-Year" planned quantity target in the discussion is preliminarily designed to achieve more than 4 trillion US dollars in trade volume by 2015, and the annual growth rate of "12th Five-Year" during the period of "12th Five-Year" is 9%-10%.

Another foreign trade analyst close to the decision-making level has judged that considering the inertia of foreign trade growth, the actual growth rate of imports and exports in 2011 will fall between 10%-15%.

This forecast value is higher than the target value determined by the Ministry of Commerce, which is lower than the general forecast value of the analysis institution.

The 7.3% growth target is not just a gesture of structural adjustment.

Xiao Hefei, deputy director of the international economic and Trade Research Center of Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, participated in the discussion on the growth target of Guangdong's foreign trade.

His personal calculations show that the growth rate of exports in Guangdong should be 15%-20% in 2011, and imports will increase by 2-5 percentage points faster than export growth.

The current target of 7.3% of foreign trade growth is even lower than Guangdong's GDP growth target of 9% this year.

"No matter which kind of measurement method is adopted, 7.3% of foreign trade growth and 9% GDP growth are not corresponding. According to the elastic relationship between the two countries, if the foreign trade growth rate is only 7.3%, Guangdong's GDP growth this year will be only 5%-6%."

Xiao Hefei said.

However, analysts close to the decision-making level think that Guangdong's foreign trade growth target of 7.3% is expected to be low.

To some extent, the pformation of foreign trade is to increase the proportion of general trade and guide the pformation and upgrading of processing trade.

For Guangdong, where processing trade is too high, the pressure of pformation and upgrading is greater than that of its provinces, so the target of growth will be more conservative.

The foregoing Guangdong foreign trade system officials also stressed that the growth target of 7.3% is not only a gesture of adjusting the structure, but also a basic judgement of Guangdong's demand for international market next year after the low indicators. "The mainstream view of the foreign trade system is that the external demand in 2011 may be weaker than the previous year".

Processing trade is more dependent on European and American traditional markets.

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He said that the survey found that the growth of foreign trade in 2011 still faces "three big mountains" - unstable external demand situation, pressure on RMB appreciation and rising manufacturing costs.

US toy giant MATTEL group, a supplier in China, said there was no feedback on sales of Christmas and Thanksgiving in the US in 2010. But according to past experience, "importers have not seen any inventory replenishment so far, which is likely to mean that the sales of the two sectors are not so optimistic."

He said that the order will not be clear until 4 and May.

Promoting the clarity of the oral policy

The tasks and measures of the provinces will be further clarified.

According to the foregoing sources, how to promote imports, the policy direction has been clear, sorting according to importance, will first promote the import of equipment and technology equipment, followed by reducing the import tariff rate of resource products, and finally promoting the import tax reduction of consumer goods represented by luxury goods.

The foregoing Guangdong foreign trade official introduced that "expanding imports" has never been as big as this year. "All provinces have been informed of the importance of increasing imports as an important starting point for this year's foreign trade work."

In the first half of this year, the Ministry of Commerce will also organize a nationwide working conference on expanding imports. "The tasks and measures of each province will be further clarified".

However, the idea of actively expanding imports to reduce the surplus is also controversial.

Some experts from the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the idea of promoting exports is not a problem in itself, but exports and imports are not isolated. They need to be vigilant.

According to the trade figures released just now by customs, although China's trade surplus still reaches 183 billion 100 million US dollars, the deficit under general trade has reached 47 billion 250 million US dollars, an increase of 9.5 times compared with 2009 in 2010.

The processing trade pattern of both sides produced a natural surplus. In 2010, the surplus of China's processing trade amounted to 322 billion 900 million US dollars, an expansion of 22.2%, equivalent to 1.76 times the overall surplus of that year.

The above experts believe that by adjusting the natural surplus production processing trade and reducing the proportion of processing trade, it is a better way to promote trade balance.

"China's new advantages and competitiveness will only be reflected in general trade."

He said.

However, the foregoing sources say that the current policy thinking for processing trade is mainly to promote the pformation and upgrading of processing trade, that is, to extend the chain of its value-added components in the country, and the two is to push the processing trade from the southeast coast to the central and western regions.