The PX Market Has Lost Its Market Power.

Recently, the PX market has started a strong rebound after the shock pattern, and the market price showed a sharp upward trend. The high price of crude oil provided strong support for its cost. Meanwhile, the rising of the PTA market and the tight supply and demand of the PX market also stimulated the upward trend of PX prices.

As of January 18th, the closing price of Asian PX market FOB Korea rose to close to 1634.50-1635.50 U.S. dollars / ton, CFR China Taiwan closed at 1652.50-1653.50 U.S. dollars / ton.

European market raw materials PX market prices also rose sharply, closing price at 1546-1550 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Rotterdam.

I. upstream

Crude oil, as the source product of chemical products, is also the upstream raw material of PX.

Recent crude oil

Two.

As we all know, the consumption of raw material PX is mainly concentrated in the field of PTA, and 80% to 90% of the world's PX output is used to produce PTA.

Therefore, the change of PTA market can be said to be a key factor affecting the market of raw material PX.

According to market data, the correlation coefficient between raw material PX and PTA spot market is around 0.96.

The recent rise in the PTA spot market of downstream raw materials has contributed to the rise of raw material PX market to a certain extent.

Judging from the current PTA market in the lower reaches of the market, the overall market situation of the PTA market shows a steady upward trend.

As of January 19th, the price of the holder's offer was concentrated in the vicinity of 10750-10800 yuan / ton in the East China inner market, and the mainstream price in the market was around 10650-10700 yuan / ton.

On the external market of PTA, the price of Taiwan products quoted price is around 1370 US dollars / ton, and the mainstream market is talking about the price between 1360-1365 US dollars / ton, while the Korean commodity price is about 1350-1355 dollars / ton.

At the same time, the recent PTA market in Zhengzhou has continued to fluctuate. As of 19 days, the 1105 main contract of PTA in Zhengshang has risen sharply to 11076 yuan / ton.

Three, the device centralized maintenance, market supply is tight {page_break}

At the same time, the supply of PX market is another important factor affecting the market price of raw materials PX.

As part of the PX plant plans to stop and overhaul, and the PTA plant load is basically maintained at full load, according to the production of 1 tonnes of PTA requires 0.655 tons of PX calculation, regardless of the new capacity or total capacity, PX is not as good as PTA, which makes the supply market of PX market tight, leading directly to the rise of PX market prices.

According to market information, overall, the operation load of domestic PX devices is still maintained at 7-8, but domestic spot circulation is not large.

At the same time, as Japan's largest PX producer, JX new Japan Petroleum and energy company currently has an average operating rate of about 80%.

In 2011, we planned to close down 5 PX factories for 40-45 days of planned maintenance. Among them, 350 thousand tons / year factories will be closed at the end of January, and 420 thousand tons / year and 420 thousand kt / year facilities will be stopped in mid May, while the 1 and 2 plants will be stopped in September and October respectively.

On the whole, the impact of cost support on PX is more obvious. At the same time, the tight supply of PX and the steady upward trend of the downstream market also drive the PX market further higher, and PX is expected to continue to rise.