Market Pressure Rises Suddenly, How Does Foreign Trade Shoe Enterprise Spend Winter?

China foreign exchange trading center data show that yesterday, the RMB against the U.S. dollar.

Interest rate and exchange rate have both risen.

Since October last year, the central bank has raised the benchmark interest rate for deposit and loan for the two time, ending three years without raising interest rates.

From the purpose of increasing interest rates, it is more to control inflation expectations.

An analysis released by the central bank recently believes that due to the impact of further reform of grain prices and income distribution and resource prices, and considering the uncertainty of international commodity prices, the pressure of future price rises can not be ignored.

People in the industry have predicted that inflation will become an important concern of monetary policy for some time this year. If prices continue to rise, the central bank may also consider raising interest rates continuously.

In terms of exchange rate, since September last year, the RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar, and has continuously hit a record high.

Dr. Ma Qingping, deputy director of the international finance research center of The University of Nottingham Ningbo, thinks that the purchasing power of the US dollar exchange rate in China is significantly higher than that of the US dollar. According to the purchasing power parity principle, the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate continues to rise.

Moreover, maintaining the RMB at a low exchange rate level will increase trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves on the one hand, trigger trade friction, and increase domestic liquidity and inflationary pressure.

This will also lead to a gradual upward trend in the RMB exchange rate in the future.

Ningbo's export enterprises are facing challenges

When visiting some enterprises, reporters learned that the interest rate exchange rate was "double rise", plus the uncontrolled issuance of US dollar and the continuous rise of international commodity prices. Our export and foreign trade enterprises, especially some labor-intensive enterprises with low added value, such as footwear, toys, clothing and daily necessities, had a greater impact.

Some foreign trade enterprises have narrowed their profit margins. Some of the export orders signed in the first half of this year are on the verge of losses.

Considering the great changes in exchange rate, some foreign trade enterprises are more cautious in holding orders, which leads to the fact that large and long bills do not dare to pick up easily.

The head of a garment enterprise in Yinzhou District told reporters that under the pressure of competition, the company still dare not raise the price easily, so as to prevent customers from "throwing another door".

The appreciation of the renminbi means that the competitiveness of the commodities priced in US dollars is weakened. In order to keep the prices of foreign products unchanged, the cost pressures will continue to rise, which will cause a great impact on the labor-intensive enterprises.

In addition, the cost of financing for some export enterprises has increased.

Although the benchmark interest rate of loans is not up to a very large extent, it will not exclude the possibility of increasing interest rates continuously. It is undoubtedly "adding insult to injury" to foreign trade enterprises facing pressure from RMB appreciation, rising raw material prices, prevailing foreign trade protectionism, slow economic recovery in Europe and America, and increased domestic labor costs.

Comprehensive use of financial instruments to avoid risks

Facing the current complicated situation, how should our foreign trade enterprises take precautions against the current pressure? Wu Sihai, capital business department of Bank of China Ningbo branch, believes that enterprises can take the following measures to avoid risks.

Forward selling and foreign exchange business is the most commonly used hedge tool in international financial market.

The long-term settlement and sale of foreign exchange can make full use of the hedging function of forward settlement and sale, and offset the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade enterprises through long-term settlement operations, so that the company can concentrate on production and operation and maintain a stable profit level when the exchange rate fluctuates significantly.

Enterprises can lock in the forward exchange rate timely, avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, or lock in the exchange rate of single order business, so as to lock in the proceeds.

Of course, there are some risks in the long-term foreign exchange settlement and sale. Foreign trade enterprises should carry out strict risk control, follow the principle of locking exchange rate risk and hedge, and do not engage in speculative or arbitrage trading.

In addition, in view of the trend of long-term appreciation of RMB, customers can choose more US dollar loans in the way of financing.

At the same time, it is also an important way to make good use of RMB cross-border settlement policy.

The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to continue to grow. It will face more severe exchange rate risks for the exporters who often use the US dollar for trade settlement.

The cross-border RMB settlement business can allow export enterprises to bypass the dollar, directly through the RMB to settle accounts with overseas buyers, so that the enterprises not only lock the cost and income in advance, but also avoid some exchange rate risks.

It is reported that in July last year, our city has recommended the first batch of 3040 pilot enterprises for cross-border trade RMB settlement to the people's Bank of China and other ministries and commissions, and is currently awaiting approval.

People in the business sector hope that the relevant departments do well in the pilot preparations for business training, so as to spread the business as soon as possible.

A person in charge of Ningbo branch of China export credit insurance believes that besides bank products, credit insurance can also effectively avoid exchange rate risk.

Enterprises can use foreign currency loans acquired through trade finance under export credit insurance to settle foreign exchange loans into Renminbi and lock in the exchange rate ahead of time.

"In the long run, enterprises should improve their coping ability, and also enhance their ability of independent innovation and speed up pformation and upgrading.

Only by developing our core business, increasing the added value of products through technological innovation, winning by quality and enhancing competitiveness, is the fundamental way to break through difficulties and base ourselves on the market. "

Said a person in charge of the bank insurance office of Ningbo finance office.