2011 How Far Is Stagflation From Us?

2011, comprehensive

Looking back, in the first half of 2010, we were busy actively controlling and eliminating backward production capacity. In the second half of the year, we were busy fighting inflation, while the pressure of rising prices was rapidly spreading to the overall inflation in the field of agricultural products.

Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the causes of inflation from the causes.

The first source is in the international market.

In the first half of the year, the US dollar index rebounded and commodities adjusted.

The domestic price level was stable. In the first half of 6 months, three months were negative than CPI, and three months was CPI.

Since the second half of the year, the US dollar index has returned to a downward trend, and commodities have risen sharply, and the pressure of imported inflation is enormous.

At the same time, there is a general trend of high inflation in developing countries. Russia's CPI reached 8.1% in November, India in November and CPI8.33% in November, CPI11.02% in Argentina.

There is reason to believe that this is closely related to the historically high commodity spot index.

The second root is in the labour market.

Starting in the fourth quarter of 2009,

The third root is money supply.

M2 grew by 19.72% in 2010, far from the target of 17.5% in the beginning of the year.

Excessive money supply will further increase the pressure of rising prices.

After entering 2011, the international bulk

Central banks in dilemma

Macroeconomic data released in the four quarter of 2010 showed that the annual economic growth rate reached 10.2% and the fourth quarter increased by 9.8%, indicating that endogenous economic growth momentum was exceptionally strong.

In early 2011, the central bank held annual work conference.

The announcement after the meeting showed that "guaranteed growth" has never been seen from beginning to end.

The central bank's policy objectives are beginning to focus on inflation. In order to make the central bank more convenient, credit management has also been pferred from the CBRC to the people's Bank of China.

Faced with inflation, the central bank must fight against it.

In January 14th, the central bank announced an increase in the reserve requirement ratio.

In January 20th, the banks made an embarrassing scene when they deposited the reserves: the positions of some banks could not be paid.

At the same time, the issuance rate of central bank breaks through the interest rate of commercial banks in the same period.

Theoretically, the credit level of the central bank is higher than that of the bank, so the interest rate should also be lower than the deposit interest rate of the same period.

Upside down is a signal that our interbank market funds are getting tighter and tighter.

The reserve payment gap and interest rate upside down appear simultaneously, indicating that the policy of total hedging is not large.

At this time, news came again that the price of food and vegetables rose sharply in January. Combined with the CPI of up to 4.6% in December last year, the inflation level in the first quarter seemed to be hard to suppress.

On the one hand, the pressure of inflation is rising. On the other hand, the total amount of tools is getting worse and worse. What policy tools are left in the central bank? Only price instruments are left. Once the interest rate rises continuously, China's economic growth will come down without any doubt.

The 2011-2012 is the key year of China's economic pformation. In order to open a new round of economic cycle, we need a relatively moderate price environment.

But now, it seems that this possibility is getting smaller and smaller.

Once the progress of economic pformation is interrupted and the root of inflation is abroad, we are likely to slip into stagnant mire.