"South Freezing North Drought" Led To Price Or High Operation In The First Quarter.

Although prices were postponed rapidly in December last year, prices rose again this month with the approaching of the Spring Festival and the weather influence of "South freezing north drought".

According to the 24 National Bureau of statistics released in mid January, the average prices of major foods in 50 cities across the country changed.

27 of the 29 kinds of foods monitored during the current period showed different price increases.

Among them, vegetable prices rose particularly.

Experts believe that prices are still rising sharply in the first quarter, driven by holiday consumption and the impact of Southern freezing and snow weather on vegetable pport in the south.

Holiday factors push up food prices

Beijing Xinfa is the largest wholesale market for agricultural products in the city.

According to the market statistics, in January 1st this year, the weighted average price of vegetables was 1.19 yuan / Jin. By January 25th, the weighted average price of vegetables was 1.58 yuan / Jin, up 32.7% from January 1st.

"This price level has also reached last year, but last year's Spring Festival was in mid February, so this year's price is higher than in previous years."

Liu Tong, director of Beijing new hair market statistics department, told reporters.

Liu Tong pointed out that the highest annual vegetable price in Beijing appears in 2~3 months.

In fact, driven by the consumption of Spring Festival, not only Beijing, but also the price of agricultural products has risen in many cities.

Data released by the Ministry of Commerce yesterday showed that the price of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce continued to rise in the first week of from January 17th to 23rd, showing a seasonal strong feature of the pre delivery period.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that with food companies entering the stock market

South freezing north drought pressure

In addition to the approaching Spring Festival consumption peak, the weather situation of "South freezing north drought" also makes the trend of prices more stressful.

Since the beginning of winter, there has not been a decent snowfall in Beijing. It has recorded the longest no precipitation record in 30 years.

Except for the northeast part of the peninsula, Shandong has no effective rainfall for more than 100 days. It is now in a 100 year drought. The wheat fields in the West Village of Yang Zhen, Qixian County, Henan are yellow, and there is no drop of water in the same more than 100 days.

Such a situation can be seen everywhere in North China and Huang Huai.

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According to meteorological statistics, since last October, precipitation in southern Hebei, Huang Huai and Jianghuai is less than 50 millimeters. Compared with the same period of the year, precipitation is less than 50%.

According to the statistics of Orient aiger consulting company, from the current wheat production, the drought affected more than 20% of the total area of winter wheat sown. If the market continues to develop and form a continuous drought in the three seasons of autumn and winter, the farmers' enthusiasm for planting the crop can not be fully mobilized. The production of wheat in the main producing area will reduce the production of 10%~15% (that is to say, the output will be reduced by 6 million 700 thousand ~1000 million tons).

"Winter drought in the north is mainly affecting the growth of wheat. From the present point of view, because the growth of wheat has not reached the critical growth period, the impact is not serious.

We should pay attention to the weather in later period. "

Ma Wenfeng, an agricultural analyst from Eastern agrie, told the newspaper.

Price or high operation in the first quarter

In the first quarter to the four quarter of last year, CPI rose by 2.2%, 2.9%, 3.5% and 4.7% respectively.

Because of the inertia of price increases and the factors of Spring Festival and weather, many experts believe that the price pressure will be relatively large in the first quarter.

Research Fellow of Bank Finance Research Center

The NDRC recently published an article on the price situation analysis on the website. It also pointed out that with the implementation of the document No. 40 of the State Council in various regions and departments, the momentum of the rapid rise in consumer goods prices has been initially curbed.

However, a number of fundamental reasons that affect the current price increase have not been eliminated. There are still many factors to drive prices up in the first quarter, including the increase of input pressure in the international market, the stronger anticipation of the market price increase, the increase in holiday demand and the larger impact of the tail.