In 2011, The Foreign Trade Situation Is Expected To Be Dangerous.

Looking back at the past 2010, the complexity of the situation at home and abroad made many

Facing the more complicated situation in 2011, Sino US relations are running in and debugging, the risk of European sovereign debt crisis expires, and domestic.

In his view, the combined base effect and the uncertainty of external environment will maintain the high growth rate of 20%~25% in 2011, and the surplus will be narrowed.

In the context of the full appreciation of the renminbi and the more complex external environment in 2011, he also gave a deeper proposal for "upgrading and pformation of processing trade" and "expanding imports" strategy.

First financial daily: Recently, the WTO Research Institute of China released the 2011 world economic and trade development and policy outlook.

The report points out that foreign trade in 2011 is difficult to maintain more than 30% growth rate, but in 20%~25%, so I would like to ask you how to make this projection.

First of all, I must say that the reason why we think that the growth rate of foreign trade in 2011 should not exceed 25%, or to break through 30%, is very small, because on the one hand, the growth of the global economy is at most maintained at the level of last year; on the other hand, our exports and imports have reached a fairly high level. For example, the export base has reached more than 1.5 billion yuan, and imports of more than 1.4 billion yuan. This scale is quite high, more than 2.9 billion yuan, coupled with trade in services, how can it maintain more than 30% growth? Many media like to misinterpret what we mean. After recognizing such a growth base and foundation, we can not think that 30% is the high number. We think that 20%~25% is already a high number. Zhang Hanlin:

We draw the following conclusions: first, we are relatively optimistic about the development of the world economy in 2011, predicting that the global economic growth will be roughly 4%. For the main economies of the world, whether in the US, Japan or Europe, we predict that 20%~25% will not be worse in 2011 than in 2011.

Although most international organizations, including domestic forecasts, are worse than in 2010.

Our predictions are mainly based on several factors. First, most countries' economic stimulus policies, whether positive fiscal policy or loose monetary policy, should begin to appear in the fourth quarter of 2010; and the full display of economic growth benefits, development benefits and political benefits should be in 2011.

In addition, the economic growth of the major economies was in the fourth quarter of 2010, and significantly accelerated over the first three quarters, especially in the one or two quarter.

In fact, most of the so-called lagging effects of policies began to emerge in the first half of 2011.

Besides, I want to start with monetary policy, fiscal policy, US dollar policy and global oil price.

First of all, our basic judgement is that the vast majority of economies, or more than 70% of the world's major economies, especially Europe, Japan, China and several emerging economies, such as Russia, India and Brazil, are relatively cautious about tightening monetary policy this year.

That is to say, it must look at the economic growth in the first half of the year, then decide the monetary policy in the middle and second half of 2011, so there will not be much interest rate increase in the first half of the year.

At present, in addition to a few countries, these countries have not increased interest rates.

China is also very cautious now. Although we have raised the reserve ratio, we have not used the tools to increase interest rates. We must ensure that the overall macro-economic growth in 2011 is a basic goal.

Secondly, in terms of fiscal policy, most countries basically maintain a moderately expansionary fiscal policy.

Though tightened compared with the first half of 2010 and 2009, the tightening of most fiscal policies has domestic resistance and the government's concern about economic growth and development. Therefore, the fiscal policy of the vast majority of the economies is highly concerned about the tight tightening.

Finally, we judge that the US dollar policy is basically loose, so the dollar is definitely still weak this year.

Global oil prices may exceed $100 / barrel in May and June this year, but they will not exceed $110 per barrel.

Such an oil price is positive for global economic recovery and for economic growth of major economies.

From the analysis of the first and second largest economies in the United States and China, the two countries should only allow high economic growth.

First, we estimate that the US economy will grow at a minimum of 3.2% this year.

If President Obama wants to be re elected, he must produce good results in 2011, so he will definitely adopt a policy of stimulating economic growth.

China, too, is sure that China's economic growth this year must be 9.8%~10%.

Because it has to go through eighteen cycles, although the government has not proposed it, we think that 9.5% is a low line, and it may reach 10%.

So we concluded that the global economy should be better this year than last year.

If the global growth of 4% and China's domestic economic growth remain at around 10%, our foreign trade should be around 20%.

If we adopt a weaker dollar and the global energy price will not rise too fast, then our import and export trade should be at 20%~25%.

Surplus pressure and appreciation pressure

Daily: what is your estimate of the trade surplus this year?

Zhang Hanlin: I think the growth trend of the trade surplus should be suppressed this year. However, the large decrease of the surplus is a drop of more than 50%.

This is based on four reasons.

First, the way of our overall trade has not changed fundamentally. The main source of the surplus is still processing trade.

Second, our trade subjects remain unchanged and are still foreign invested enterprises.

Third, although the growth in exports to emerging markets is relatively large in proportion to 2010, the growth of emerging markets will not be as high as in 2011, because the rapid growth of exports to these markets last year will inevitably bring about huge trade surpluses and frictions, so the export to these markets in 2011 will be greatly inhibited.

That is, the positive factors are certainly not comparable to the factors of competition.

Therefore, the overall situation of China's trade protection in 2011 is even more serious. This is also an important factor that we think the growth trend of 2011 will not be as fast as it used to be.

Fourth, from the rule and fluctuation of the world economic crisis cycle, we can conclude that trade protectionism is the most rampant in the early stage of economic recovery.

So this is a very important factor in our view that trade exports will be greatly suppressed this year.

But the biggest difficulty is basically the pressure of trade protectionism from abroad and the intensification of competition in the international market. Domestic and foreign markets will become the main source of global comprehensive trade friction in 2011.

How can it be so good?

Daily: when it comes to the favorable balance, it involves the external environment of RMB appreciation. What do you think?

Zhang Hanlin: this year, compared with last year, another reason why trade has been greatly suppressed is that the pressure on RMB appreciation is inevitable.

Therefore, in 2011, the RMB will generally maintain an upward trend. It should be said that there will be positive advantages for reducing the surplus, but it will be unfavorable for the growth of the entire export and import.

We can not just look at the trend of RMB appreciation, you have to look at the trend of the dollar, we can not see the strength of the dollar.

Sino EU and Sino US economic and trade relations

Daily: you mentioned the risk of European debt crisis this year, can you talk specifically about the impact on exports?

Zhang Hanlin: European debt has three risks: first, the turbulence in the international financial market will have a major impact on the recovery of European economy.

Second, the negative impact on the euro is bad for us.

Third, European debt will inevitably bring about a reduction in the budget deficit of the government, which is a major danger to the whole economy.

In the first quarter of this year, the growth of the euro should be more optimistic, and the fluctuation of the whole financial market is not very large.

But the downside risks to European economic growth are great.

In the first half of this year, because of the European debt problem, I think it is the most difficult period for European economy.

We should make good use of this period, which is just a good time to strengthen the overall economic and political cooperation between China and Europe.

For example, this year's G20 summit is held in France. France wants to change its long-term trend of keeping abreast of the United Kingdom, but it can not resist Germany's trend. At this time, seizing this opportunity is of great significance for leading the EU countries to strengthen their comprehensive strategic economic and trade cooperation with China.

Daily: the RMB exchange rate, intellectual property protection and other issues have been affecting the stability of Sino US relations. Will President Hu's visit to the United States guarantee the stability of economic and trade cooperation in the coming year?

Zhang Hanlin: I have always been optimistic about Sino US economic and trade relations.

Because no matter how tense Sino US political relations are, the interdependence between Chinese and American economies is inseparable.

In the year when China joined the WTO, Barshefsky, the US trade representative, said in Hongkong that Sino US economic and trade relations were built on the basis of the system (a multilateral trading system based on WTO).

10 years later, Sino US economic and trade relations should be extended to the global multilateral financial, trade and monetary cooperation.

Economy is the cornerstone of cooperation. Although there are differences, neither side will shake this foundation.

Now, if we want to shake the cornerstone, it will be relatively unfavourable to the US side and have little influence on the Chinese side.

Because Obama is reelected, the US unemployment rate is too serious at present, and the part of the growth of China's market and the Asian part are important factors in the US's net export growth in 2010.

From the perspective of China, I believe that the overall interests of China and the United States should be viewed in a comprehensive way, or that the economic and political relations between China and the United States should be strengthened on the basis of comprehensive interests balance.

We should not simply look at Sino US bilateral relations. China seems to be losing money, but China has great interests in the existing international economic order and system.

The main defender of the interests is the United States. You can't count the small bills.

China's economic pformation

Daily: when it comes to this problem, export enterprises are faced with several difficulties, one is to protect exports, and the other is exchange rate pressure, and the cost of labor and raw materials is rising. How should enterprises strive to win these unfavorable factors in a limited period of time and profit?

Zhang Hanlin: the factors we just judged did not refer to the internal factors of export growth.

In fact, the rising cost of export is also a factor in the growth of China's exports. The renminbi is depreciating internally, because inflation and external appreciation, the dual pressure has a considerable impact on enterprises.

Personally, I think it is not very meaningful to make recommendations from the perspective of enterprises alone, because this problem will ultimately be solved by a higher level of coordination.

The growth and development of China's trade as a whole should be a strategic shift of development space.

The strategic pfer of space refers to the fact that China's entire foreign trade center has shifted from the eastern coastal areas to the central and western regions, because the resources in the eastern developed areas are relatively scarce, and the central and western regions, whether human resources, natural resources or the entire industrial structure, are all important forces that will drive us to further industrialization and urbanization.

So we think the whole big space pfer is manifested in two aspects: a large number of manufacturing industries are pferred to the central and western regions, and the developed areas in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas need to be pformed into high-end manufacturing and modern service industries.

This is also the most important thing for China to pform from a trading power to a trading power.

Unfortunately, we did not see this trend from "12th Five-Year".

I believe that if China's opening up is the opening up of the southeast coastal area in the first thirty years, the opening up of the central and western regions will be further realized in the next twenty to thirty years.

The cheap labor force that supports the processing trade in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas all comes from the central and western parts of the country.

Moreover, the infrastructure construction in the central and western regions, the cultivation of the whole market and people's ideology have undergone fundamental changes, so I think it is time to adjust China's overall spatial layout.

So the pformation of the enterprise you mentioned earlier is useless, and the big strategic layout can not be achieved without change.

If we do not make a big change in space strategy, it will be difficult to support the pformation and upgrading of processing trade.

At present, the biggest resistance is that the interests of local governments, especially those in coastal areas, have not been solved.

Driven by the interests of GDP, the local government will give the processing trade enterprises various subsidy policies, which will collect a lot of related taxes and fees, which are generally not investigated.

At the same time, if there is no central government level matching, such as the preferential policies of the central and Western governments, it will not be able to change.

For example, Foxconn's pfer to Zhengzhou is inseparable from the support of local governments.

And the production line of HP laptop can drop in Chongqing, which is also inseparable from the help of the Chongqing municipal government. So this is a real problem, not a turning point, but a central government and a local government.

Daily: in the 12th Five-Year plan, it was mentioned that the trade balance can be promoted by expanding imports. How can this policy be refined to perform well?

Zhang Hanlin: it is meaningful and necessary for China to implement the strategy of actively expanding imports.

But now it looks a bit late. When China joined the WTO, I thought China should implement the strategy of actively expanding imports.

I think the import strategy includes: first, any resource category should import zero tariff, or even subsidize imports.

We should limit the export of resource products while encouraging the active import of resource products.

We need to make a strategic plan for resource products.

Second, I think luxury goods should be fully reduced tariffs.

The biggest disadvantage of luxury goods to the consumer market is that tariffs can not be collected. Why not reduce tariffs, which has received part of the tariff and received a lot of value-added consumption.

So I think we should turn the high tariff with restrictive prohibition into a low tariff plus a consumption tax, which will substantially reduce the price of luxury goods and bring about a consumption market.

Now the domestic luxury price is much higher than that of foreign countries. In essence, it has three very bad results: it hinders the import of our normal high-end consumer goods, lets consumers bear more unreasonable prices, and gives most of the profits to foreign producers.

Third, foreign high-tech export restrictions are not likely to be cancelled in the short term due to political reasons.

At present, the possible impetus for loosening is the temptation of China's huge domestic import market to force the other side to lift the export restrictions on high technology.