PTA Is Facing Adjustment Pressure Recently.

Since the beginning of the new year, the PTA market has continued its strong trend at the end of last year. It once increased its position and set a new high of 12216 yuan.

Crude oil market shows signs of adjustment

After a continuous decline in US crude oil inventories, the oil price rose again in the past two weeks.

China's macroeconomic data in December last year showed that there was an overheating trend in China's economy. Therefore, the late tightening macroeconomic policy will restrict the growth of crude oil demand to some extent.

In addition, OPEC's latest monthly report pointed out that the supply of crude oil market is adequate. The current oil price rise is not related to supply and demand factors, but is caused by intensified speculative activities.

Against this background, the expectation that the oil price of more than US $100 will affect the global economic recovery exists.

Recent data from CFTC also show that the crude oil market has dropped to a 1 month low of non-commercial long positions.

On the whole, although the upward trend of crude oil oscillations remains unchanged, signs of short-term adjustment have begun to emerge, and the possibility of seeking a strong support position of $80 is not ruled out.

Although the correlation between PTA and crude oil prices is not as good as before in the near future, the adjustment of crude oil will add some psychological pressure to PTA futures.

PX soared to

It is generally believed that the difference between PX and naphtha oil price is at the level of US $300, or the difference between PX and MX is above 170 - 180 US dollars, so PX producers can make profits.

Affected by the concentrated release of PX capacity in 2009, the price of PX was once in a doldrums. But since 2010, the pace of PX production has been greatly slowed down, and prices have gradually picked up.

Judging from the price changes in all aspects of the PX industry chain, the price of naphtha in Asia fell slightly from the US $876 at the beginning of the month to the current US $859 line, and the price of mixed xylene (MX) rose slightly to around 1040 US dollars.

The price of PX has reached a new high, rising from $1377 at the beginning of the year to the current US $1650, breaking through 1400, 1500 and 1600 US dollars in 1 months.

The soaring price of PX stems from the stimulation of some PX devices at home and abroad, but it also reflects the tight supply situation.

The sustained price of PX provides a strong cost support for PTA.

In terms of the current PX price, PTA production cost is around 9700 yuan. According to the average profit distribution of PTA manufacturers in 2010, the normal level of PTA spot price should be between 10700 and 11000 yuan.

It can be seen that the current PTA futures price of 11000 to 11500 yuan can still be maintained, and the 10000 yuan integer pass should be the strong supporting position of PTA futures.

PTA supply tightening situation short-term or phased improvement

According to statistics, in 2010, domestic PTA output basically maintained at more than 1 million 200 thousand tons per month, and imports remained near 500 thousand tons. The supply of PTA domestic market was near 1 million 750 thousand to 1 million 800 thousand tons per month. However, due to the large number of domestic polyester installations started in 2010, the supply of PTA was significantly tighter in the second half of 2010.

Due to the fact that a large number of polyester plants were still in operation in 2011,

However,

Downstream cost conduction is difficult to maintain smooth {page_break}

At present, the downstream polyester enterprises have strong affordability.

The downstream users of PTA are some large polyester factories in China. Due to the better production profit in 2010, the stock of polyester factories is low at present, and the production and operation status is normal.

Although the cost of raw materials such as PTA and MEG has been rising continuously in recent years, the profit margins of the major polyester products have been eroded, but the polyester plant can still pass the raw material cost to the terminal textile market. Therefore, the ultimate test of market capacity is still the demand of the terminal textile and garment market.

Due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the dual impact of rising labor costs, the domestic textile industry will be expected to undergo significant changes in 2011. Some enterprises with insufficient strength will face the possibility of bankruptcy.

In 2010, the cost of raw and auxiliary textiles increased by about 30% over the previous year. Cotton and other core costs rose more than doubled, the biggest increase in 15 years.

According to the relevant data, in 2010, the remuneration and welfare of the textile industry increased by more than 10%, and the wage increase in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta reached 20%. The era of low cost as the core competitiveness is coming to an end.

To sum up, the tight supply pattern of PTA is likely to improve in the short term, coupled with signs of adjustment in the oil market and weakening of downstream demand. PTA is facing short-term adjustment pressure.

However, supported by strong cost, the PTA adjustment space will be limited, and the 10000 yuan gateway will be a strong support.